Rain and thunderstorm action moves through the state today. WE have a cold front pushing in from the north and west, and the remains of Tropical storm Cindy coming up from the south. Combined this will trigger rains of .5”-2” over the entire state today (rain totals go back to the start of the event last night, in some parts of the state). The good news is that this moisture moves out fairly quickly, giving a drier evening and a chance at a nice finish to the day.

Cooler air is in tomorrow and stays through the weekend. We should see good sunshine through the weekend, and only have a small concern about a few scattered to isolated showers tomorrow afternoon. The moisture that triggers those has a better likelihood of just producing clouds at this time. Temps will be below normal statewide tomorrow and Sunday, with better sky conditions Sunday.

Dry weather continues for the start of next week. In general, we have completely dry weather Monday through Wednesday over the northern half of the state. Monday and Wednesday will be dry in the south, but we have a few scattered showers moving in to southern Indiana on Tuesday. These showers will produce a few hundredths to .3” of rain with 50% coverage of areas from I-70 southward. Temps will be warming through the first half of next week.

The big changes in our forecast this morning come for the later part of next week. Moderate to heavy rains develop with a front arriving Thursday. Rains and strong storms produce totals of .5”-2” with 90% coverage Thursday from I-70 northward, and up to half an inch south of I-70 with 505 coverage. Then we follow up with another batch of showers and thunderstorms for Friday, that produce .5”-1.5” rain totals and 60% coverage. The least coverage for next Friday may end up being over the northeast quadrant of the state. Rain and thunderstorm action redevelops then for later Saturday afternoon and continues through Sunday bringing another .5”-1.5” of rain and 75% coverage. The moisture is rather impressive and the map above shows totals for next week from Tuesday morning through the weekend.

The extended period has lingering showers into next Monday (3^rd) but a dry July 4^th holiday. In fact, we should be dry for the 4^th through the 6^th statewide, with temps above normal. Then the remainder of the extended window gets more active again, with scattered showers and heat based thunderstorms developing for the 7^th and 8^th. However, there is not a good, well defined front arriving in there…and those will be interesting to watch for further development or degradation.

A cold front approaches from the west and northwest today, but rain may start sooner thanks to the off shoots of Tropical storm Cindy. This storm has pushed ashore and is starting to throw some serious precipitation up through the lower Mississippi river valley. Most of the state will see sunshine and warm air today with strong southwest flow. But, clouds will increase over southern Indiana very quickly and we are leaving the door open for some rains starting this afternoon. Going into this evening, we have potential for moderate to heavy rains over far southern Indiana while the storms still moves north and start to curve northeast. There is a threat of strong thunderstorm action as well. Meanwhile, off to the northwest, our cold front starts to move in. However, good moisture from the cold front will be mostly limited to tomorrow. All told, from the front we are keeping rain totals at .25”-1” through tomorrow, while the far southern part of the state can see some 1-2 inch rains or more, if the remains of Cindy are able to come int. Rains may be toward the upper end of the .25”-1” range south of I-70, but north of US 50, due to renegade thunderstorms. The map above shows the likely track of Cindy through the end of the week…with a track just south of the OH river, areas along and just north of the river will be in-line to see some significant rains and even some wind.

Drier weather is back for Saturday and most of Sunday. WE can’t completely rule out a few showers on Sunday, but they will be limited to about 40% coverage with rain totals of a few hundredths to .3”. These may skew to the northern half of the state.

High pressure is in control for Monday through Wednesday of next week. Temps should move higher in the period. Thursday, models suggest a few scattered showers and thunderstorms moving in, but we think that is jumping the gun a bit. We like better rain potential for next Friday, with rains of .25”-.75” and coverage of 80%.

Farther out, the extended period has dry weather following that late week front next week through the holiday weekend. We finally are seeing some consensus of models with our thought process and forecast that we have had for the early part of July for the past 4-5 days. Our next good front in the extended window may hold off until the 6^th and 7^th with rain potential of half to 1” and coverage at 70%.

Temps will be cool this weekend, but should move higher next week, eventually getting to above normal levels statewide.

While our next frontal boundary does not arrive until tomorrow night into Friday, we still are dealing with a bit of instability in the atmosphere. We should see less of a chance of scattered showers this evening, but we still won’t rule it out anywhere. In the meantime, we should see sunshine through a good part of the day today and tomorrow. Tomorrow warmer air does surge northeast, allowing temps to climb along with the humidity.

 

That next front comes in tomorrow night and looks stronger. We see rain going all through Friday. We are raising rain totals up to .5”-1.5” with coverage at 80% of the state. There is a much better threat of strong to severe weather out of this event, and we have some concern about heavier rains over southern Indiana. These may be enhanced by the remains of tropical storm Cindy moving through areas just south of the OH River. Still, keep an eye out for some fairly significant rains Thursday night through Friday. The map is a snap shot of potential action Friday midday to early afternoon. This is likely the farthest north that the heavy tropical enhanced precipitation will go. 

 

Drier Saturday, and now it looks like Sunday may turn out mostly dry as well. WE think that the tropical storm over the southeast will draw energy away from the region for the weekend and now look for only a few hundredths to a tenth or two over about 30% of the state on Sunday. This is a change, but one that looks pretty solid, given the impact of the tropical event.

 

Next week we are also looking at a drier outlook. We see no chance of rain Monday through Wednesday, and there can be only a few scattered showers in for Thursday. Honestly, we think that a good chunk of next week will be dry, and temps should be heating up.

 

The extended period is still very unsettled, with no model agreement whatsoever. We are leaving our outlook alone, looking warm and dry for the period, until something builds consensus to make us change.

 

Overall, this forecast is much wetter to close this work week, and there is a threat of flooding and major rains in southern Indiana, but the rest of the 10 day to 2 week period is drier and should turn warmer. That being said, temps will be no better than normal today, Friday and Saturday.

 

Drier weather moves into the state today after better than expected rain and thunderstorm action materialized over the region yesterday. We should see little to no rain potential in the short haul part of the forecast, although models are suggesting a few scattered showers may slink close to the Michigan line tonight. Sunshine will be a dominant player in the forecast tomorrow and Thursday, with strong southwest flow heating things up Thursday afternoon. This will be a key for our Friday forecast, as increased heat and energy will allow for significant instability in our atmosphere.

A cold front arrives for Friday, nosing into that warm air mass and instability. WE expect rain and thunderstorms to break out, and the thunderstorms can be strong to severe, especially in the first half of the day. We expect rain totals of .25”-1.25” over about 80% of the state. The front moves quickly, with rains done in all areas except in the southern quarter of the state by Friday evening, and even south we should see rains end by midnight Friday. Saturday should be dry.

A second wave of moisture moves in for Sunday and again, it can have good thunderstorm potential. The front is not all that impressive to start with, with just general rains and showers over NW areas where it comes through late morning and midday. But, as the afternoon rolls on and the front sweeps farther south and east, better chances for strong to severe thunderstorm action emerge. We are putting rain totals for Sunday at .25”-1.5” with coverage at 80%. The best heavy rain threats are in east central and southern Indiana.

Drying out for Monday and high pressure is in control for Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday morning. A weak front slips through north and northeast Indiana Wednesday afternoon and may trigger up to a quarter of an inch of moisture. Coverage will be 50% or less in areas north of I-70 and east of US 31. Negligible precipitation chances elsewhere.

The rest of the week finishes dry in all locations. In the extended window, models are in quite a bit of disagreement. One model brings a front in for the 1^st and 2^nd, with moderate to heavy rains. Another shows ridging, hot and drier weather for the 11-16 day window. Our bias to this point has been warmer and drier…so we will continue with that thought process until we see something that truly can build consensus differently…something that is not just a single, flip-floppy, medium range forecast model.