Indiana Weather Outlook 6-25-18

We kick of yet another work week with most of the state looking dry and fine today. The northern two thirds of the state will see plenty of sun today, pleasant afternoon temps (actually just a little bit below normal) and a nice breeze with low humidity. Then, we have the southern part of Indiana, that just can’t come along for that ride today. A strong low is moving across the Tennessee valley and Kentucky, pushing rain and thunderstorm action north across the Ohio river as it moves east. This will trigger rain and thunderstorms over southern Indiana, mostly from US 50 southward, through the day today. In SW Indiana this morning we can see some heavy rains of 3-4 inches with strong thunderstorms, and that rain tracks east through the day, easing some, but not completely. So, in southern Indiana, particularly near the river, look out for heavy rain, potential flooding, strong thunderstorms and the possibility of severe weather.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny to start, but rain will be filling in over IL to our west. That rain may nose some scattered showers in to western Indiana by midday to mid-afternoon. In general, though rain waits to ramp up until Tuesday evening and overnight, and then goes all the way through Wednesday. Half to 1.5” rain totals are likely with coverage of 90% of the state. To get to the upper end of the range we need thunderstorms, but we think that there can be some strong to possible severe thunderstorms on several occasions through the life of this event.

Thursday we can see some scattered showers from I-70 southward, but those likely give only a quarter to half an inch with 60-% coverage. The rest of the state north of I-70 will be dry. Friday, we flip that. Scattered shower in NW Indiana bring .1” to .5” with coverage at 40%, and we stay dry elsewhere. WE are dry Saturday and Sunday statewide.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms return from US 24 northward Sunday night into very early Monday morning. This minor precipitation outbreak can bring a few hundredths to almost 1 inch (most of that heavy rain stays in Michigan), but coverage will only be about 50% of the state north of US 24, and everywhere else stays dry through Monday. We can’t rule out a few scattered showers south on Tuesday, but only 40% coverage and totals of a few hundredths to a third of an inch max. Wednesday will be dry.

For the extended period, we have scattered showers around for Thursday, July 5th. These will have only a .25”-.5” potential, but 70% coverage. Then a strong high-pressure dome moves in for the remainder of the forecast period, keeping us Sunny, dry and warm from the 6th through at least the 11th.

Temps will be below normal today and tomorrow, but from Wednesday forward, we will see a move to above normal levels statewide.

Overall, this pattern shows still timely moisture potential, but (outside of what is going on this morning in southern Indiana) you notice each system is significantly smaller, has shorter duration and much less total precipitation than we have seen over the past 7 days. Combine that with temps that rise quickly, and we will be looking at a much different forecast pattern for the start of July than what we saw for the month of June. Temps are likely not problematic but will look to stay above normal for most of the upcoming month.

Indiana Weather Outlook 6-11-18

Moisture is still around over the state today, providing a “long tail” to the weather system that started impacting the region over the weekend. A cold front will slowly sag southward over the state today, meaning the best precipitation will likely develop central and southern Indiana, but we will not rule out scattered showers up north either, especially this morning. Rains today can be from a few hundredths to a quarter inch up north, and .25”-.75” over central and southern Indiana. Coverage will be around 70% today.

The rest of the week may settle down just a little bit, but the pattern overall remains somewhat unsettled here. We think a strong high pressure dome will try and park over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states the rest of this week. Moisture will try and circulate around the bottom and backside of the high in clockwise fashion. This will keep plenty of moisture in over the Deep South and Tennessee valley, augmented by some flow up off of the Gulf of Mexico. This will also keep a chance of scattered, hit and miss showers in over the state through most of the rest of the week. We are not talking about significant rains like this past weekend, but more minor, pop up action from time to time. We do think we are looking at a slightly drier window for tomorrow and the first part of Wednesday, but even there, conditions will be right enough to trigger a bit of moisture here and there. Better rain chances are in for the second half of the week and weekend. With the damp feel and ample moisture, we can say that this week will not be one that features good dry down. In fact, drying will be tough and humidity levels high. As long as temps stay near normal (and they should…perhaps even a bit below normal in the near term), this forecast though is one that is very positive for crop growth and development for anything in the ground. Those who still have some acres to put in …this is not a forecast you are happy with. Forage and hay work this week will also be tough. Looking at the rest of the week (excluding today), we can see 70% of the state picking up another .1”-.5”. Coverage may be no better than 30-40% on any of the next few individual days, but combined we get to that 70% number.

p168iScattered showers develop Saturday with .25”-.75” rain potential over 60% of the state as a minor front moves through. Lingering clouds and scattered moisture is in for Sunday too, although probably not amounting to more than few hundredths. Temps remain near normal for the weekend. The map above shows total precipitation for the next week.

Next week starts with no significant moisture or frontal action, but clouds are slow to leave. This set up looks similar to the second half of this week…where there is no significant synoptic event arriving, but we just are mired what seems like a soupy mess. We will keep Monday and Tuesday dry for now but look for scattered showers next Wednesday.

In the extended period, we have a front for late the 21st into the 22nd that brings .25”-1” of rain, and another front around the 26th that can bring equal rains. Both will end up with coverage around 80%.

Temps the next 10 days will be near normal. We can trend slightly below in the short term, and perhaps a bit above in the extended period.

Indiana Weather Outlook 6-5-18

gfs_tprecip_indy_7.pngSo, today is the wet blanket on our week. Tomorrow, Thursday and Friday all look great. Sunny, dry, pleasant with low relative humidity and gradually warming temps. Then, there is today. We should be sunny, dry and pleasant, but instead, we are having to deal with clouds wrapping around a strong low off to the northeast and those clouds have the potential to drop a bit of precipitation on us too. We don’t like it. We think the pattern still is mostly dry, but we just can’t stand back and not acknowledge the pesky moisture that can be around. So, while we get through the day mostly dry, we can see a few hundredths to a tenth over about 40% of the state, and the bias here is the northern part of the state too. Timing can be any time this morning in the north, early to mid-afternoon central. Soutehrn Indiana should miss out on any moisture chance. We need to stress that there is not a lot of water to work with here. But, if there is something you truly don’t want wet today, cover it up (I did). The map shows precipitation totals through midnight tonight. These may actually be a little zealous on the top end, as we really like a tenth or less in most areas. But the coverage is very close to our thoughts.

Now, after we get done with the dry second half of the week, we do have a bit of moisture coming in for the weekend. Action does not look quite as strong this morning, but we still need to keep rain and thunderstorms in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday. At this time, we will condense our rain totals into a single range, rather than north vs. south, and look for .25”-1.25” over about 90% of the state. Thunderstorms will be needed to get into the upper end of the range, and we see some good thunderstorm chances. However, they are spread out over a larger part of the state than our previous look.

Dry behind this system to start next week, Monday and Tuesday, and this morning we are taking rain out at midweek, allowing for a completely dry period Monday through Friday of next week. Temps look to be normal to above normal for the period as well. A nice front arrives for next Saturday, bringing potential for .25”-.75” over the entire state.

The rest of the extended period shows another front dragging across the state for the 18th, and then another system threatening the region around the 21st into the 22nd.

Indiana Weather Outlook 6-4-18

A mostly dry week ahead of us. Strong high pressure is working into the western Corn Belt out of the Great Plains. This high will keep dry weather top of mind for most of the week. Temperatures today will be near normal again, slightly warmer than yesterday. Winds should not be as strong. A big question mark hovers over tomorrow, however. We prefer a dry forecast solution and will run with that. However, several computer models are trying to bring minor moisture over the region tomorrow morning into midday. They source this moisture from a strong low circulating to the northeast, moving out of Ontario into Quebec. Now, we will admit this is a very strong low, but we think that the amount of moisture wrapping around the backside all the way back here is going to be minor. We should see some clouds to be sure. But, to get precipitation going…that is a completely different animal. Considering the dry nature that we currently find our atmospheric profile to have, we think it will be difficult. Even yesterday, we did not see any moisture materialize over Indiana generally, because the atmosphere was too dry, and that front had a better moisture set up than this wrap around. So, we are keeping our forecast dry with some morning clouds, but will say keep an eye on the sky as you start your Tuesday.

No matter if we stay dry or if Mother Nature does thumb her nose at me and bring a shower or two, we are dry to finish the week. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday all have plenty of sunshine, and a very dry set up. WE should see excellent drying potential for forage work, evaporation rates near maximum, and temps will slowly gain a couple of degrees per day. WE will be near normal for Wednesday, but slightly above normal for daytime highs by Friday. High pressure will generally be in control.

A strong frontal complex moves through for the weekend. Saturday we see rain and heavy thunderstorms br3eak out over northern Indiana, and then the action sags south through Saturday night and Sunday. Northern Indiana can see rain totals of .5”-1.5”, with the bulk of that coming on Saturday, while the southern half of Indiana sees rains of .25”-1” with most of that coming from Saturday overnight through Sunday early afternoon. Coverage of the entire event will end up being near 100% of the state. Thunderstorms Saturday in northern Indiana show characteristics of being strong, but it is way too early to call for any significant severe weather event…we are just on the lookout for some heavier rains. The map above is a snapshot from Saturday midday, with rain totals from the previous 6 hours. Notice the cluster of heavier rains oriented from just north of Lafayette, aiming toward NE Indiana…thunderstorms are behind this batch of heavier rain.

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Dry behind this system to start next week, Monday and Tuesday. Temps will be near to a bit above normal, with good drying and low relative humidity. Our next front arrives for Wednesday and can bring .25”-1” rains to about 90% of Indiana. The front moves through quickly, and we should see most action done by sunset Wednesday. Dry for Thursday and Friday to start the 11-16 day forecast window.

A front arrives for next Saturday, the 16th. Rains can be from .1” to .8” with coverage at 60% of the state. Then strong high pressure moves in from the NW, and should keep the start of the week after next on the dry side. There could be another system threatening the region around the 21st into the 22nd.

So, in general, after this drier week, we move into a pattern that can be summed up with the term “timely rains”…so at this point, weather looks pretty good for crop growth and development.

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-30-18

Today is looking rather wet as the remains of Alberto push into the area. Moisture began overnight and early this morning in far SW Indiana and will be building north from there. The low looks to track north along the Indiana-Illinois border through midday. That puts the heaviest rains this morning in eastern IL. However, the low looks like it wants to then drift more east and moves on a line from Crawfordsville to Columbia City this afternoon, sitting in NE Indiana around sunset. That path would bring heavier rains of 1-2.5 inches into NW Indiana. So, we are watching that closely, as it could lead to some localized flooding. Then the low tracks into southern Michigan by midnight tonight, taking the heavy rains with it. Through tomorrow we see lingering moisture over the state, but it is much, much lighter than what we see today. Today we expect rain totals of .25” on the low end all the way up to 2 inches on the top end. And, if that track holds true, some parts of NW Indiana can exceed that. Tomorrow, we like rains of a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch, and most of those will be over the southern half to two thirds of the state. Still…most of us are going to see a very soggy couple of days.

Far southern Indiana may see a little rain to start Friday, but generally we are drier to finish the week. The rain in the south will be mostly in KY, and moving into OH, but we won’t rule it out across the river in our southern counties. It will be gone by mid-morning. The rest of the state sees sun return, and that sun stays statewide through Saturday.

A weak trough moves through overnight Saturday night. Moisture looks to be very light, and we think that most areas miss out on anything of consequence. For now, we will keep a chance of a few scattered light showers in the early Sunday morning hours, but clouds will be breaking up already by midday and early afternoon. There likely is just a minor wind shift with the trough, and there is not enough moisture to work with to produce good precipitation.

Dry weather holds then for the balance of Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps will be normal to above normal and we should see good sunshine, drying and field work conditions. This will be followed by a strong cold front for next Thursday, bringing half to 1.5” rain potential with strong thunderstorms and 80% coverage

No change for the 11-16 day extended period. Our next front likely hits toward the early to middle part of the extended window, around the 10th (late) through Monday the 11th. Rain totals are not over the top, but we can see .25”-.6” over about 70% of the state. Then we go back to strong high pressure dominating to finish the period for the 12th and 13th.

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-23-18

Dry weather dominates the rest of the week. We are putting sunshine in for today through Saturday. Clouds will start to develop in parts of the state Saturday afternoon as moisture starts to push up from the south. We will keep an eye out Saturday evening for a few showers near the river, but in general, most of our precipitation that happens will move through on Sunday. However, overall moisture for the holiday weekend looks to be less. The best chance of rain in Indiana will be Sunday evening up through midnight, but we are also going to have to keep an eye out for scattered pop up showers through the day Sunday. That action will be largely hit and miss with coverage no more than 20% of the state through the day. Sunday night coverage will be closer to 80% of the state. We expect rain totals for the entirety of Sunday to be from a few hundredths to no more than half an inch, and a tenth or two will be the most frequent measurement. Moisture is off to the east for Memorial Day on Monday, and we should see a mostly dry day there as well. So overall, this forecast looks good for drying, and for enjoyment of the weekend. The map below shows rain totals through the holiday weekend.

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Next week we are keeping dry weather in for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. Our thoughts from yesterday regarding any tropical system look to be verifying, as most models are keeping the storm, but are just having it meander around the gulf coast rather than shooting northward. So, we have no reason to bring moisture in at this time. WE still are looking to bring our next system forward to the 1st, lasting into early the 3rd, Rain totals from the first early wave are minor at .25”-.5” over 60% of the state, but we are seeing signs of a second push that could bring up to 1 inch for the overnight of the 2nd into early the 3rd. That wave would push rain totals for the event to 100% of Indiana. That will be the piece to really watch.

For the rest of the 11-16 day window we see a dry start to the week of the 4th, but still have a minor front working in around midweek that week, for the 6th. The front can bring up to half an inch of moisture with 70% coverage. Temps remain mostly normal to slightly above normal for the period.

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-18-18

ecmwf_tprecip_indy_18A few changes to next week’s rain potential in terms of timing, but in general, we still see the same overall amount of moisture spread over the next 2 and a half weeks. Rain is slowly spreading northward across the state today. Central and southern Indiana get rain form this morning on, but the northern third to quarter of Indiana may end up staying rain free for most of the day today. Scattered showers continue to spread overnight tonight, and then we have rain in the forecast through tomorrow and Sunday. Monday morning action is breaking up, and we may end up with a drier day overall Monday than previously thought. Still, there can be a few scattered to isolated showers shortly after sunrise Monday, before the improvement comes. Rain coverage today will be no better than 60%, and through the next two days, we see slightly better rain coverage at 60-70%. However, for the coming 3 days combined, we look for .25”- 1.5” rains over 90% of the state. IF we can get thunderstorms to develop on Sunday (more likely in Ohio than here), that would raise the possibility of some isolated higher rain totals.  The map at right shows rain totals through next Monday midday.

Drier weather begins to take hold Monday midday and afternoon, but clouds still likely hold firm through the day. In fact, clouds are slow to break up even on Tuesday. One change in the forecast this morning is to a drier period through Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, we can see 3-4 dry days in a row next week, before our next system arrives. The midweek event just looks to lose its moisture source, and that is what effectively kills it.

Late next week as we kick off the Memorial Day weekend, we have rain developing. Scattered showers arrive for Saturday the 26th and continue through Sunday the 27th. Rain totals can be .25”-.75” with coverage at 80% of the state. Then we go dry again for Memorial Day itself. The rest of next week is interesting. On one hand, we have the holiday weekend front trying to clear out the area and bring in drier air, and on the other hand, we see some tropical moisture trying to rise up across the Deep South, and cause some lingering, slow moving showers for the 29th-31st. We like the drier solution right now, as we think it’s too early to see significant tropical moisture on a northern push like this. Also, the models that try and show that are notoriously bad at handling early season tropical moisture. But, either way, we do have a nice front in for late the 1st into the 2nd. That front brings up to half an inch of rain.

Farther out, we likely see a system around midweek the week of the 4th, but our forecast this morning is at least giving some slightly longer windows of drying, after we get done with the rains here in the short term (through early next week). Temps show no sign of backing off…staying mostly normal to above normal through the coming 2 week period.