Indiana Weather Outlook 5-17-18

Dry statewide today. Clouds will be more frequent down near the Ohio River, but we should be rain free in all areas of the state today.

Rain is back tomorrow, starting as scattered shower action in east central and southeast Indiana in the morning and then spreading north and west from there. The only part of the state that likely stays dry tomorrow will be far NW Indiana, and perhaps west central, near the Illinois line. The rest of the state can see rains from a few hundredths to half an inch or better. Rain chances continue Saturday, Sunday and the first half of Monday. The best way to look at this period is to say that on any given day we see rain coverage at 50-60%, but for the 3 and a half day period combined, we can see .25”- 1.5” rains over 90% of the state. IF we can get thunderstorms to develop on Sunday (more likely in Ohio than here), that would raise the possibility of some isolated higher rain totals.  Still, rain is a fairly safe bet at least couple of times from Friday to Monday.

Tuesday will be mostly dry with dominant sunshine. We actually start the drying late Monday and keep it going into early Wednesday. It probably will not be long enough to do anything with it, though. Rain and thunderstorms are back with our next front by midday Wednesday, the 23rd. and the rains look to linger through the 24th. We will leave rain totals alone at .1”-.8” over the state, with coverage still at 70% of the entire state.

Next Friday, the 25th, we should start to dry down some as high pressure pushes in from the northwest. This will take temps back closer to or even a degree or two below normal for the extended 11-16 day window. However, we still see temps over the next 10 days mostly normal to above normal. Cumulative precipitation totals are shown below. We do see some concern this morning about another system in the heart of the Memorial Day holiday weekend. This system is just showing up on some models, so we are not jumping all over it yet, since it is a strong change from our previous dry outlook. Track is still uncertain, and we feel it could stay farther south. Still, it is something to watch, and we may have to extend our active pattern through the end of the month, if this system is able to hang around or even grow.

 

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-16-18

No change in our forecast this morning. We continue to see an active and unsettled pattern through at next Thursday. We do have 2 dry days out of the next 10, so that stays the same as well.

Today’s action looks to be mostly over the southern half of the state. We start the day with some action in east central Indiana, but then for most of the day scattered showers are likely from I-70 southward. Rain chances stay at a few hundredths to .4” over 60% of the region from I-70 southward.

Tomorrow should be dry statewide. We do have better chances for clouds down near the Ohio River, but still, most of the state sees a good amount of sunshine for tomorrow as well. Enjoy it, as we move back to rain chances for Friday through the weekend and into next week.  Rain is in the forecast Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. We continue to think that coverage won’t be very exciting on any of those days, but we will see rain in there over 80% of the state combined, and rain totals can be from half to 1.5” combined over those 4 days. Coverage on any given day likely is no better than 50-60% of the state.

Tuesday will be mostly dry, our second dry day over the state. Rain and thunderstorms are back with our next front by midday Wednesday, the 23rd. That system brings .1”-.8” over the state, and we are bumping coverage to 70% of the entire state, rather than being biased north.

Next Friday, the 25th, we should start to dry down some as high pressure pushes in from the northwest. This will take temps back closer to or even a degree or two below normal for the extended 11-16 day window. However, we still see temps over the next 10 days mostly normal to above normal. Cumulative precipitation totals are shown below.

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-14-18

Active weather over the Hoosier state for the next several days. As a matter of fact, we see rain potential 5 of the next 7 days in Indiana. Today and tomorrow scattered showers and thunderstorms will be most active from I-70 northward, but we won’t rule out hit and miss action farther south. Then tomorrow night the thunderstorm threat sinks farther south, and we see better coverage statewide into early Wednesday. The rest of Wednesday and Thursday look drier, mostly because this trough layout has merged the two systems we had forecasted for this week. All told, today through early Wednesday morning, we should see rain totals of .5”-2” over 80% of the northern part half of the state, and .25”-.75” over about 50% of the southern half of the state.

 Rains work back into Indiana Friday, as a wave lifts up from the south and west. WE look for .25”-1” over 70% of the state. Then we move into a mostly dry Saturday. Sunday showers and thunderstorms return, first in the north, and then spreading south and east. We can see .2”-.9” over 70% of the state. Out of that front.

 Next week is much drier, and kicks off a multi-day dry period. We should be rain free across the state from Monday through Friday. Now, at midweek, around the 23rd into the 24th, a disturbance will be trying to move into the northern part of IL and WI, moving into the great lakes. WE think this front lifts too far north to impact us at this time. That would allow dry weather to continue all the way through the 28th, with our next front showing up around the 29th. High pressure coming in from the northwest would dominate the 11-16 day forecast period.

 Temps this week through the rain and thunderstorms will still be normal to a bit above normal. However there will be a significant spread across the state. The northern areas, where rain and thunderstorms are falling more frequent and clouds are more dominant, will see temps closer to normal. Down south, with more sun, and better south flow, south of the stationary boundary, we will see temps take off and be well above normal. This dynamic will fuel thunderstorm development, especially early this week, and again later Friday.

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-11-18

Our weather pattern looks fairly “unsettled” for the next week, more so in the north than the south at the outset, but in general, we all see some pretty decent rain between now and the end of next week. We offer no changes to the general forecast this morning. Moisture is spreading into northern Indiana today as an upper level disturbance moves out of the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. This will bring rain in to the state from I-70 northward. WE look for a few hundredths to at most .3” with coverage at 70%. The best coverage will fall the farther north you go, particularly near the Michigan line. South of I-70 we see nothing. Scattered showers linger for Saturday from US 30 northward. That round of moisture amounts to only a few hundredths to a tenth or two. We still think clouds mix with sun down to SR 26, and then south of there we see mostly sunny skies for Saturday.

A frontal complex sags through the state on Sunday.  The northern part of the state actually sees some thunderstorm chances for this still Saturday night around midnight, but then it slowly works south. The front may try and fall apart a bit over southern Indiana, but we don’t want to take rain chances out anywhere at this time. Most of the rains for Sunday on into the overnight will produce a few hundredths to .4” with 40-50% coverage. Stronger thunderstorms may try and fire off early Sunday morning and in the northern part of the state, boosting rain totals there, and then again Monday morning in west central and southwest Indiana.

We can’t rule out scattered showers for Monday and Tuesday, but coverage will be at 30% of the state or less. Then action ramps up later Tuesday afternoon and overnight. That round of moisture can bring .05”-.5” with 40% statewide coverage.

A powerful circulation moves in for next Wednesday and Thursday with half to 2” rains likely, including some stronger thunderstorms. Coverage will be 90% of the state. Additional rains hit 40% of the state on Friday bringing .25”-.5”. Here is an updated map of our thoughts on rain fall potential from now through next Sunday morning.

ecmwf_tprecip_indy_41.png

We should be dry for next weekend, but then in the extended period, we are watching a front sliding in from the NW around the 21st. We are leaving rain totals alone with this front, looking for .25”-1” and 80% coverage.

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-10-18

Rain is moving off to the east this morning, working through Ohio. We should see some sunshine through the day today, but clouds also linger in spots. Temps should be slightly cooler and winds a little less active than yesterday.

Going forward, the pattern looks to feature a lot of hit and miss moisture. This kind of set up lends itself to spotty coverage of rain, but from tomorrow through next Wednesday, a large part of the state will see some rain. The big rain event of the next 10 days will be next Thursday and Friday.

We start off this “unsettled” pattern with an upper level disturbance moving across the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes tomorrow. This will bring rain in to the state from I-70 northward. WE look for a few hundredths to at most .3” with coverage at 70%. The best coverage will fall the farther north you go, particularly near the Michigan line. South of I-70 we see nothing. Scattered showers linger for Saturday from US 30 northward. That round of moisture amounts to only a few hundredths to a tenth or two. Clouds mix with sun down to SR 26, and then south of there we see mostly sunny skies for Saturday.

A frontal complex sags through the state on Sunday. This front looks substantially less impressive now than it did several days ago. WE are going to keep rain in the forecast, kicking off Sunday afternoon. Most of the rains for Sunday on into the overnight will produce a few hundredths to .4” with 40-50% coverage. Stronger thunderstorms may try and fire off early Monday morning in west central Indiana, and scattered showers continue south of I-70 through the day Monday. Monday will be dry up north.

We should be partly sunny Tuesday morning, but shower and thunderstorms redevelop later Tuesday afternoon and overnight. That round of moisture can bring .05”-.5” with 40% statewide coverage.

A powerful circulation moves in for next Thursday with half to 2” rains likely, including some stronger thunderstorms. Coverage will be 90% of the state. Additional rains hit 40% of the state on Friday bringing .25”-.5”. The map above shows 10 day rain totals for Indiana from the GFS model…these are over done…we think we get about 75% of these totals over the coming period. But, still, you see that the entire state is going to get field work delay inducing rains between now and the end of next week.

gfs_tprecip_indy_411.png

We should be dry for next weekend, but then in the extended period, we are watching a front sliding in from the NW around the 21st. We are leaving rain totals alone with this front, looking for .25”-1” and 80% coverage. The rest of the extended period looks interesting, as one model tries to bring the remains of a tropical disturbance right up into the Indiana area for the 23rd and 24th. While we won’t completely rule that out, we have problems with that solution because 1) the model that is really ramping this up is one that is notoriously awful at projecting early season tropical storms in advance, and 2) any storm that makes it all the way north like this is shown would have to be rather large and strong…not a feature one would expect with any May tropical disturbance. So, while we are not jumping on this at the moment, we will watch it. In fact, if a front does come through on the 21st, any tropical storm that would try and move north would likely end up using that front as a corridor to move along…and it should be well out of our area by the 23rd. We’ll see.

While the moisture is hit and miss over the next couple of weeks, temps still look to be mostly normal to above normal over Indiana and the eastern corn belt in general.

 

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-9-18

Clouds build through the day today as precipitation is on its way into the state. Action starts this afternoon in NW, north central and west central Indiana, and then spreads south and east form there. The best rains will fall this afternoon through midnight tonight. Rain totals will be from .25”-.75”. Strong thunderstorms do not look likely, which is why we are shaving a little off the top end of our previous rain range. The rains coming in a little faster mean that we see them leave a little faster too. Most action should be east into Ohio by shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning.

The rest of the day tomorrow is dry, with clouds giving way to sunshine. Temps will be a little cooler behind the frontal passage.

A secondary disturbance moves from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes for Friday and Saturday. This still looks to bring some rain into the northern half to third of the state Friday. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths to a quarter inch or so, with coverage at 80% of areas from US 24 northward. Between US 24 and I-70, we won’t rule out a shower or two, but don’t think it will be a big event. South of I-70 we see nothing. There is a similar tendency on Saturday too, with clouds and a few scattered showers from US 30 northward, but the rest of the state is dry. The Saturday rains can bring another few hundredths to .2”

On Sunday, a cold front sweeps through bringing precipitation back statewide. However, the coverage does not look as impressive this morning, and we think there could be some holes in the rain pattern. Right now we are paring back moisture to .25”-1”, and coverage back to 60% of the state. Thunderstorms do not look to be as strong and as moisture laden, and we do not see rains hitting the same areas over and over. So, this is going to be a friendlier rain event, at least the way it looks right now. An increase in energy or moisture can easily bring back thunderstorms, so we are not closing the book on this forecast yet…but we are looking at a more subdued system in our opinion. Rains linger into early Monday.

Dry for the balance of Monday and Tuesday. WE should see temperatures rebound. Wednesday is a little bit of a sticking point in our forecast this morning. WE have been keeping next Wednesday dry. However, a couple of models are trying to advance our next system forward about 12-24 hours from the 17th into the 16th. We want to see additional and confirming model runs before making a change. Either way, there is a system in there that can bring up to half an inch over about 70% of the state. Then we are dry for the balance of the 10 day window, right up to the 20th.

No change in our extended 11-16 day forecast window this morning. We continue to watch a cold front sweeping into the state for the afternoon of the 20th bringing rains of half to 1.5” over 90% of the state, and then a reinforcing wave of energy brings additional rains up to 2” for late the 21st through the 22nd. Given the recent system performance, we would suggest that these rain totals likely will be lowered as these systems get closer to arrival.

 

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-8-18

Sunny, dry and warm today. Sunny and warm tomorrow. Temps above normal

Clouds return tomorrow afternoon and precipitation breaks out tomorrow evening. Rain and thunderstorms move into NW, north central and west central Indiana near or after sunset, and action spreads south and east. There seems to be less of a threat of thunderstorms now, but until we see how the heat starts to interact with the front tomorrow, we will not be able to wave the all clear flag just yet. For now, we will leave rain totals tomorrow night through midday Thursday at .25”-1” with coverage at 80% of the state. Many areas will be at a half inch or less. By Thursday afternoon, rain is done in most of the state. We continue to see a secondary wave moving across the Upper Midwest into the great lakes for Friday and Saturday. That will leave the chance of scattered showers in over northern Indiana, from the Michigan line down to US 24, or at the very least plenty of clouds. Farther south, we have nothing going on for either day, Saturday or Sunday. If showers do pop up to the north, a few hundredths to a tenth or two will be all we are looking for.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are in for Sunday, and linger though Monday midday. WE can see rains from half to 1.5” with strong to severe thunderstorm potential. 100% coverage of rain out of this event. The strong thunderstorms look to be most active in central and southern Indiana from midnight Sunday night through Monday morning. All action is done by Monday afternoon.

Dry weather is back for Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak frontal boundary lifts up from the southwest for Thursday the 17th, bringing .1”-.4” to about 60% of the state. The best coverage will be in southern and central Indiana. The map above shows total rains through the next 10 days. The bulk of this comes tomorrow night through Thursday and then Sunday night into Monday.

gfs_tprecip_indy_41.png

Going into the extended 11-16 day forecast window, we have a stronger cold front sweeping into the state closer to the 20th bringing rains of half to 1.5” over 90% of the state, and then a reinforcing wave of energy brings additional rains up to 2” for late the 21st through the 22nd.

Temperatures the second half of this week will pull back closer to normal, and then move slightly above normal levels heading into next week again, before that front develops on Thursday. We do expect a significant temperature correction behind the strong thunderstorms that are possible later this Sunday.