Indiana Weather Outlook 5-30-18

Today is looking rather wet as the remains of Alberto push into the area. Moisture began overnight and early this morning in far SW Indiana and will be building north from there. The low looks to track north along the Indiana-Illinois border through midday. That puts the heaviest rains this morning in eastern IL. However, the low looks like it wants to then drift more east and moves on a line from Crawfordsville to Columbia City this afternoon, sitting in NE Indiana around sunset. That path would bring heavier rains of 1-2.5 inches into NW Indiana. So, we are watching that closely, as it could lead to some localized flooding. Then the low tracks into southern Michigan by midnight tonight, taking the heavy rains with it. Through tomorrow we see lingering moisture over the state, but it is much, much lighter than what we see today. Today we expect rain totals of .25” on the low end all the way up to 2 inches on the top end. And, if that track holds true, some parts of NW Indiana can exceed that. Tomorrow, we like rains of a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch, and most of those will be over the southern half to two thirds of the state. Still…most of us are going to see a very soggy couple of days.

Far southern Indiana may see a little rain to start Friday, but generally we are drier to finish the week. The rain in the south will be mostly in KY, and moving into OH, but we won’t rule it out across the river in our southern counties. It will be gone by mid-morning. The rest of the state sees sun return, and that sun stays statewide through Saturday.

A weak trough moves through overnight Saturday night. Moisture looks to be very light, and we think that most areas miss out on anything of consequence. For now, we will keep a chance of a few scattered light showers in the early Sunday morning hours, but clouds will be breaking up already by midday and early afternoon. There likely is just a minor wind shift with the trough, and there is not enough moisture to work with to produce good precipitation.

Dry weather holds then for the balance of Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps will be normal to above normal and we should see good sunshine, drying and field work conditions. This will be followed by a strong cold front for next Thursday, bringing half to 1.5” rain potential with strong thunderstorms and 80% coverage

No change for the 11-16 day extended period. Our next front likely hits toward the early to middle part of the extended window, around the 10th (late) through Monday the 11th. Rain totals are not over the top, but we can see .25”-.6” over about 70% of the state. Then we go back to strong high pressure dominating to finish the period for the 12th and 13th.

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-23-18

Dry weather dominates the rest of the week. We are putting sunshine in for today through Saturday. Clouds will start to develop in parts of the state Saturday afternoon as moisture starts to push up from the south. We will keep an eye out Saturday evening for a few showers near the river, but in general, most of our precipitation that happens will move through on Sunday. However, overall moisture for the holiday weekend looks to be less. The best chance of rain in Indiana will be Sunday evening up through midnight, but we are also going to have to keep an eye out for scattered pop up showers through the day Sunday. That action will be largely hit and miss with coverage no more than 20% of the state through the day. Sunday night coverage will be closer to 80% of the state. We expect rain totals for the entirety of Sunday to be from a few hundredths to no more than half an inch, and a tenth or two will be the most frequent measurement. Moisture is off to the east for Memorial Day on Monday, and we should see a mostly dry day there as well. So overall, this forecast looks good for drying, and for enjoyment of the weekend. The map below shows rain totals through the holiday weekend.

gfs_precip_120hr_indy_23.png

Next week we are keeping dry weather in for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. Our thoughts from yesterday regarding any tropical system look to be verifying, as most models are keeping the storm, but are just having it meander around the gulf coast rather than shooting northward. So, we have no reason to bring moisture in at this time. WE still are looking to bring our next system forward to the 1st, lasting into early the 3rd, Rain totals from the first early wave are minor at .25”-.5” over 60% of the state, but we are seeing signs of a second push that could bring up to 1 inch for the overnight of the 2nd into early the 3rd. That wave would push rain totals for the event to 100% of Indiana. That will be the piece to really watch.

For the rest of the 11-16 day window we see a dry start to the week of the 4th, but still have a minor front working in around midweek that week, for the 6th. The front can bring up to half an inch of moisture with 70% coverage. Temps remain mostly normal to slightly above normal for the period.

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-18-18

ecmwf_tprecip_indy_18A few changes to next week’s rain potential in terms of timing, but in general, we still see the same overall amount of moisture spread over the next 2 and a half weeks. Rain is slowly spreading northward across the state today. Central and southern Indiana get rain form this morning on, but the northern third to quarter of Indiana may end up staying rain free for most of the day today. Scattered showers continue to spread overnight tonight, and then we have rain in the forecast through tomorrow and Sunday. Monday morning action is breaking up, and we may end up with a drier day overall Monday than previously thought. Still, there can be a few scattered to isolated showers shortly after sunrise Monday, before the improvement comes. Rain coverage today will be no better than 60%, and through the next two days, we see slightly better rain coverage at 60-70%. However, for the coming 3 days combined, we look for .25”- 1.5” rains over 90% of the state. IF we can get thunderstorms to develop on Sunday (more likely in Ohio than here), that would raise the possibility of some isolated higher rain totals.  The map at right shows rain totals through next Monday midday.

Drier weather begins to take hold Monday midday and afternoon, but clouds still likely hold firm through the day. In fact, clouds are slow to break up even on Tuesday. One change in the forecast this morning is to a drier period through Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, we can see 3-4 dry days in a row next week, before our next system arrives. The midweek event just looks to lose its moisture source, and that is what effectively kills it.

Late next week as we kick off the Memorial Day weekend, we have rain developing. Scattered showers arrive for Saturday the 26th and continue through Sunday the 27th. Rain totals can be .25”-.75” with coverage at 80% of the state. Then we go dry again for Memorial Day itself. The rest of next week is interesting. On one hand, we have the holiday weekend front trying to clear out the area and bring in drier air, and on the other hand, we see some tropical moisture trying to rise up across the Deep South, and cause some lingering, slow moving showers for the 29th-31st. We like the drier solution right now, as we think it’s too early to see significant tropical moisture on a northern push like this. Also, the models that try and show that are notoriously bad at handling early season tropical moisture. But, either way, we do have a nice front in for late the 1st into the 2nd. That front brings up to half an inch of rain.

Farther out, we likely see a system around midweek the week of the 4th, but our forecast this morning is at least giving some slightly longer windows of drying, after we get done with the rains here in the short term (through early next week). Temps show no sign of backing off…staying mostly normal to above normal through the coming 2 week period.

 

Indiana Weather Outlook 5-17-18

Dry statewide today. Clouds will be more frequent down near the Ohio River, but we should be rain free in all areas of the state today.

Rain is back tomorrow, starting as scattered shower action in east central and southeast Indiana in the morning and then spreading north and west from there. The only part of the state that likely stays dry tomorrow will be far NW Indiana, and perhaps west central, near the Illinois line. The rest of the state can see rains from a few hundredths to half an inch or better. Rain chances continue Saturday, Sunday and the first half of Monday. The best way to look at this period is to say that on any given day we see rain coverage at 50-60%, but for the 3 and a half day period combined, we can see .25”- 1.5” rains over 90% of the state. IF we can get thunderstorms to develop on Sunday (more likely in Ohio than here), that would raise the possibility of some isolated higher rain totals.  Still, rain is a fairly safe bet at least couple of times from Friday to Monday.

Tuesday will be mostly dry with dominant sunshine. We actually start the drying late Monday and keep it going into early Wednesday. It probably will not be long enough to do anything with it, though. Rain and thunderstorms are back with our next front by midday Wednesday, the 23rd. and the rains look to linger through the 24th. We will leave rain totals alone at .1”-.8” over the state, with coverage still at 70% of the entire state.

Next Friday, the 25th, we should start to dry down some as high pressure pushes in from the northwest. This will take temps back closer to or even a degree or two below normal for the extended 11-16 day window. However, we still see temps over the next 10 days mostly normal to above normal. Cumulative precipitation totals are shown below. We do see some concern this morning about another system in the heart of the Memorial Day holiday weekend. This system is just showing up on some models, so we are not jumping all over it yet, since it is a strong change from our previous dry outlook. Track is still uncertain, and we feel it could stay farther south. Still, it is something to watch, and we may have to extend our active pattern through the end of the month, if this system is able to hang around or even grow.