No change in our forecast this morning. We continue to see an active and unsettled pattern through at next Thursday. We do have 2 dry days out of the next 10, so that stays the same as well.

Today’s action looks to be mostly over the southern half of the state. We start the day with some action in east central Indiana, but then for most of the day scattered showers are likely from I-70 southward. Rain chances stay at a few hundredths to .4” over 60% of the region from I-70 southward.

Tomorrow should be dry statewide. We do have better chances for clouds down near the Ohio River, but still, most of the state sees a good amount of sunshine for tomorrow as well. Enjoy it, as we move back to rain chances for Friday through the weekend and into next week.  Rain is in the forecast Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. We continue to think that coverage won’t be very exciting on any of those days, but we will see rain in there over 80% of the state combined, and rain totals can be from half to 1.5” combined over those 4 days. Coverage on any given day likely is no better than 50-60% of the state.

Tuesday will be mostly dry, our second dry day over the state. Rain and thunderstorms are back with our next front by midday Wednesday, the 23^rd. That system brings .1”-.8” over the state, and we are bumping coverage to 70% of the entire state, rather than being biased north.

Next Friday, the 25^th, we should start to dry down some as high pressure pushes in from the northwest. This will take temps back closer to or even a degree or two below normal for the extended 11-16 day window. However, we still see temps over the next 10 days mostly normal to above normal. Cumulative precipitation totals are shown below.

Active weather over the Hoosier state for the next several days. As a matter of fact, we see rain potential 5 of the next 7 days in Indiana. Today and tomorrow scattered showers and thunderstorms will be most active from I-70 northward, but we won’t rule out hit and miss action farther south. Then tomorrow night the thunderstorm threat sinks farther south, and we see better coverage statewide into early Wednesday. The rest of Wednesday and Thursday look drier, mostly because this trough layout has merged the two systems we had forecasted for this week. All told, today through early Wednesday morning, we should see rain totals of .5”-2” over 80% of the northern part half of the state, and .25”-.75” over about 50% of the southern half of the state.

 Rains work back into Indiana Friday, as a wave lifts up from the south and west. WE look for .25”-1” over 70% of the state. Then we move into a mostly dry Saturday. Sunday showers and thunderstorms return, first in the north, and then spreading south and east. We can see .2”-.9” over 70% of the state. Out of that front.

 Next week is much drier, and kicks off a multi-day dry period. We should be rain free across the state from Monday through Friday. Now, at midweek, around the 23^rd into the 24^th, a disturbance will be trying to move into the northern part of IL and WI, moving into the great lakes. WE think this front lifts too far north to impact us at this time. That would allow dry weather to continue all the way through the 28^th, with our next front showing up around the 29^th. High pressure coming in from the northwest would dominate the 11-16 day forecast period.

 Temps this week through the rain and thunderstorms will still be normal to a bit above normal. However there will be a significant spread across the state. The northern areas, where rain and thunderstorms are falling more frequent and clouds are more dominant, will see temps closer to normal. Down south, with more sun, and better south flow, south of the stationary boundary, we will see temps take off and be well above normal. This dynamic will fuel thunderstorm development, especially early this week, and again later Friday.

Our weather pattern looks fairly “unsettled” for the next week, more so in the north than the south at the outset, but in general, we all see some pretty decent rain between now and the end of next week. We offer no changes to the general forecast this morning. Moisture is spreading into northern Indiana today as an upper level disturbance moves out of the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. This will bring rain in to the state from I-70 northward. WE look for a few hundredths to at most .3” with coverage at 70%. The best coverage will fall the farther north you go, particularly near the Michigan line. South of I-70 we see nothing. Scattered showers linger for Saturday from US 30 northward. That round of moisture amounts to only a few hundredths to a tenth or two. We still think clouds mix with sun down to SR 26, and then south of there we see mostly sunny skies for Saturday.

A frontal complex sags through the state on Sunday.  The northern part of the state actually sees some thunderstorm chances for this still Saturday night around midnight, but then it slowly works south. The front may try and fall apart a bit over southern Indiana, but we don’t want to take rain chances out anywhere at this time. Most of the rains for Sunday on into the overnight will produce a few hundredths to .4” with 40-50% coverage. Stronger thunderstorms may try and fire off early Sunday morning and in the northern part of the state, boosting rain totals there, and then again Monday morning in west central and southwest Indiana.

We can’t rule out scattered showers for Monday and Tuesday, but coverage will be at 30% of the state or less. Then action ramps up later Tuesday afternoon and overnight. That round of moisture can bring .05”-.5” with 40% statewide coverage.

A powerful circulation moves in for next Wednesday and Thursday with half to 2” rains likely, including some stronger thunderstorms. Coverage will be 90% of the state. Additional rains hit 40% of the state on Friday bringing .25”-.5”. Here is an updated map of our thoughts on rain fall potential from now through next Sunday morning.

We should be dry for next weekend, but then in the extended period, we are watching a front sliding in from the NW around the 21^st. We are leaving rain totals alone with this front, looking for .25”-1” and 80% coverage.

Rain is moving off to the east this morning, working through Ohio. We should see some sunshine through the day today, but clouds also linger in spots. Temps should be slightly cooler and winds a little less active than yesterday.

Going forward, the pattern looks to feature a lot of hit and miss moisture. This kind of set up lends itself to spotty coverage of rain, but from tomorrow through next Wednesday, a large part of the state will see some rain. The big rain event of the next 10 days will be next Thursday and Friday.

We start off this “unsettled” pattern with an upper level disturbance moving across the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes tomorrow. This will bring rain in to the state from I-70 northward. WE look for a few hundredths to at most .3” with coverage at 70%. The best coverage will fall the farther north you go, particularly near the Michigan line. South of I-70 we see nothing. Scattered showers linger for Saturday from US 30 northward. That round of moisture amounts to only a few hundredths to a tenth or two. Clouds mix with sun down to SR 26, and then south of there we see mostly sunny skies for Saturday.

A frontal complex sags through the state on Sunday. This front looks substantially less impressive now than it did several days ago. WE are going to keep rain in the forecast, kicking off Sunday afternoon. Most of the rains for Sunday on into the overnight will produce a few hundredths to .4” with 40-50% coverage. Stronger thunderstorms may try and fire off early Monday morning in west central Indiana, and scattered showers continue south of I-70 through the day Monday. Monday will be dry up north.

We should be partly sunny Tuesday morning, but shower and thunderstorms redevelop later Tuesday afternoon and overnight. That round of moisture can bring .05”-.5” with 40% statewide coverage.

A powerful circulation moves in for next Thursday with half to 2” rains likely, including some stronger thunderstorms. Coverage will be 90% of the state. Additional rains hit 40% of the state on Friday bringing .25”-.5”. The map above shows 10 day rain totals for Indiana from the GFS model…these are over done…we think we get about 75% of these totals over the coming period. But, still, you see that the entire state is going to get field work delay inducing rains between now and the end of next week.

We should be dry for next weekend, but then in the extended period, we are watching a front sliding in from the NW around the 21^st. We are leaving rain totals alone with this front, looking for .25”-1” and 80% coverage. The rest of the extended period looks interesting, as one model tries to bring the remains of a tropical disturbance right up into the Indiana area for the 23^rd and 24^th. While we won’t completely rule that out, we have problems with that solution because 1) the model that is really ramping this up is one that is notoriously awful at projecting early season tropical storms in advance, and 2) any storm that makes it all the way north like this is shown would have to be rather large and strong…not a feature one would expect with any May tropical disturbance. So, while we are not jumping on this at the moment, we will watch it. In fact, if a front does come through on the 21^st, any tropical storm that would try and move north would likely end up using that front as a corridor to move along…and it should be well out of our area by the 23^rd. We’ll see.

While the moisture is hit and miss over the next couple of weeks, temps still look to be mostly normal to above normal over Indiana and the eastern corn belt in general.