Indiana Weather Outlook 5-18-18

ecmwf_tprecip_indy_18A few changes to next week’s rain potential in terms of timing, but in general, we still see the same overall amount of moisture spread over the next 2 and a half weeks. Rain is slowly spreading northward across the state today. Central and southern Indiana get rain form this morning on, but the northern third to quarter of Indiana may end up staying rain free for most of the day today. Scattered showers continue to spread overnight tonight, and then we have rain in the forecast through tomorrow and Sunday. Monday morning action is breaking up, and we may end up with a drier day overall Monday than previously thought. Still, there can be a few scattered to isolated showers shortly after sunrise Monday, before the improvement comes. Rain coverage today will be no better than 60%, and through the next two days, we see slightly better rain coverage at 60-70%. However, for the coming 3 days combined, we look for .25”- 1.5” rains over 90% of the state. IF we can get thunderstorms to develop on Sunday (more likely in Ohio than here), that would raise the possibility of some isolated higher rain totals.  The map at right shows rain totals through next Monday midday.

Drier weather begins to take hold Monday midday and afternoon, but clouds still likely hold firm through the day. In fact, clouds are slow to break up even on Tuesday. One change in the forecast this morning is to a drier period through Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, we can see 3-4 dry days in a row next week, before our next system arrives. The midweek event just looks to lose its moisture source, and that is what effectively kills it.

Late next week as we kick off the Memorial Day weekend, we have rain developing. Scattered showers arrive for Saturday the 26th and continue through Sunday the 27th. Rain totals can be .25”-.75” with coverage at 80% of the state. Then we go dry again for Memorial Day itself. The rest of next week is interesting. On one hand, we have the holiday weekend front trying to clear out the area and bring in drier air, and on the other hand, we see some tropical moisture trying to rise up across the Deep South, and cause some lingering, slow moving showers for the 29th-31st. We like the drier solution right now, as we think it’s too early to see significant tropical moisture on a northern push like this. Also, the models that try and show that are notoriously bad at handling early season tropical moisture. But, either way, we do have a nice front in for late the 1st into the 2nd. That front brings up to half an inch of rain.

Farther out, we likely see a system around midweek the week of the 4th, but our forecast this morning is at least giving some slightly longer windows of drying, after we get done with the rains here in the short term (through early next week). Temps show no sign of backing off…staying mostly normal to above normal through the coming 2 week period.

 

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