Clouds hold over a good chunk of the state today, although we are optimistic that we see some sunshine break through as the day wears on over the southern half of the state. Leftover moisture this morning may fall over extreme eastern Indiana, where we saw some light action build overnight. However, that will move quickly off to the east. Strong northwest winds will develop through the day, and that will bring much colder air into the region. That cold air advection, coming in across Lake Michigan, will likely increase our potential for some lake enhancement later this afternoon, evening and overnight. That is causing us to put a little bit of light snow into the forecast for this afternoon through tomorrow morning over the extreme northern part of the state. We do not think we will see any significant accumulations, and snow in general probably has a hard time holding together south of SR 14…but still, it is a minor change in our forecast.

Dry for most of tomorrow, Saturday and early Sunday. Winds swing back to the southwest, meaning we see temps bump up again going into the holiday weekend. However, we are still on track to get some significant precipitation as we finish out the extended holiday weekend. Clouds build from later Saturday through Sunday, and we see light rains starting to move in late Sunday afternoon and evening. The rains pick up in intensity for Monday and then linger into Tuesday. Rains are not going to be overly heavy in any specific period, but the threat of rain will be fairly constant from Sunday night through Tuesday morning. All told, we look for cumulative rain totals to be from .5”-1.25” over 90% of the state, and some areas may even push closer to 1.5 inches on a localized basis. The northern half of the state will see better chances for rains in the upper half of the range. The map above shows cumulative precipitation through next Tuesday morning. The 2 inch totals on this map are overdone, in our opinion. But the layout of the geographic spread is very close to our thoughts.

Much colder air comes in behind the cold front around midday Tuesday, and we will see temps pushing to below normal levels for most of the rest of the week next week. We do not see any serious precipitation threats through the balance of the week. We may see some lake effect snow try and sneak into some far north areas late next Tuesday into Wednesday, and a few flakes flying over southern Indiana for next Thursday night, but the threats are minimal. We likely stay dry stay dry right on through next weekend.

In the extended period, we look for a significant front to work in to the state, bringing the potential for liquid equivalent precipitation of half to 1 inch. However, models have major discrepancies in how they handle different air masses with any front. The GFS is way too warm for the extended period, in our estimation, with a big push of warm air all the way up into the northern plains. However, the European does not have nearly as intense of frontal development. So…with the big disparities, we will have to see how this one plays out going forward. Our bias is for a strong front with a much stronger cold push…we have been in that camp for a while now, calling for a big blast of cold air for January. Who knows how long it will take to get some of these models to come around to that line of thinking.

 

INDIANA WEATHER OUTLOOK

Dry today over the state. Sunshine holds over the northern half, while clouds likely try and build in over the south. These clouds will thicken up as we watch a system get ready to pass by to the south of the OH River overnight tonight through tomorrow. This system does not look to have much of an impact here. In fact, the only areas where we need to keep an eye out for a few spits or sprinkles will be over the southeast corner of the state. Moisture there looks to be a few hundredths of an inch to perhaps a tenth…but nothing significant.

Dry weather is back for the remainder of tomorrow and most of Friday. However, we still look for increasing amounts of activity through the holiday weekend. Overnight Friday in to Saturday we can see some clouds over a large part of the state, but nothing more than a few widely scattered showers. Sunday we can see slightly more action but still, coverage no better than about 30-40%.

However, from overnight Sunday night through Monday and even into early Tuesday, we see nice, steady rains developing and slowly moving through. That should be enough to bring half to 1 inch rains to 100% of the state, with Monday (the 2^nd) being very, very soggy. The map show a snapshot of action late Monday afternoon.

Behind the system, drier, colder weather emerges for the rest of the week. Temps move back to below normal levels and stay there into the weekend. We may have to keep an eye out for light snows overnight Thursday night into Friday but the little wave does not look overly strong at this point.

In the extended period, temps turn colder, with a big push of below normal air in over the state. In fact, we can see temps go back to near zero in the extended window and stay there for a longer period of time. We also have the potential for another strong system to sweep through around the 9^th and 10^th, but models have some significant disagreement on strength out that far. Stay tuned.

A major storm complex is set to move out of the central Rockies and lift northeast for Christmas day and early Monday the 26th. This low is powerful, with tightly packed isobars, meaning ferocious winds along would be enough to make this system nasty. But, cold air and copious amounts of available moisture are set to make this into one of the more impressive blizzards in recent memory.

Blizzard conditions arise when winds mix with snow to knock visibilities down to 0 feet. It has nothing to do with intensity of the snow. In fact, the snow could be very light…but if the wind is blowing it hard enough that you cant see – Voila…Blizzard.

There are some blizzards, though, that do bring large amounts of snow. These become EPIC very quickly.  We think this is one of those storms for SD, ND and northwest parts of MN. Moisture available to this system will be well over an inch – closer to 1.5″ if it were all rain. This will be a rather wet snow, but still, we feel confident that we can see easily 10-14 inches along and northwest of a line from Scottsbluff, NE through Fargo, ND. And, in these kinds of set ups, one can easily be amazed and surprised by an even heavier localized band of snow in there. Put these snow totals together with 20-40 mph sustained winds and some gusts up to 55 mph…and you have a recipe for complete shut down in parts of SD, ND, northern MN and even the Nebraska panhandle.

Timing on this system is mostly on Christmas day. Precipitation may start overnight Christmas Eve into Christmas early morning, but it will be light. The period of heaviest accumulation will be from Christmas afternoon through about 3 AM Monday. But…at this point, don’t get too excited one way or the other if is starts sooner or later and ends sooner or later. The key here is  — stay home. Even for a region that is used to winds, snow and sometimes nasty winter events…this one will be pretty intense.

 

No major changes this morning, as we gear up for our next batch of inclement weather. Unfortunately, that batch of weather will be moving in starting tonight – that means clouds build through the day today. This event still looks to come in 3 pieces from tonight through Monday mid afternoon

Piece number one is in overnight tonight. WE see rains developing statewide to the tune of a few hundredth to as much as 4 tenths, although the .3”-.4” rain totals will be fairly isolated and only in small areas. Rains will cover about 80% of the state overnight, and will be pushing quickly off to the east after sunrise tomorrow morning. We still can’t rule out some sloppy wet snow flakes mixing in over the norther tier counties, definitely no farther south than US 30.

The second part of this event is for Christmas day, although at this point it is not nearly as impressive and will be the weakest wave of the three. Scattered, light shower action will work through, particularly from midday on through the evening hours. By midnight, action will be gone. Rain totals will be a few hundredths to at most a quarter of an inch, and coverage still looks to be only about 60% at best…and potentially a lot less. Still, it will turn out to be a pretty gray and somewhat damp Christmas Day over a large part of the state.

The cold front finally moves through for Monday. From sunrise into early afternoon we see moderate rains move through. WE like rain totals of .25”-.5” for the most part, but will allow for a few isolated higher amounts. Coverage of rains for Monday will be 100% of the state as the front sweeps through from west to east. This will bring rain totals for the complete cumulative event to half to 1 inch with coverage at 100% of the state. The map above shows rain totals from tonight through Monday late afternoon.
Following that front we get much colder for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. WE should be dry Tuesday, but can see a little bit of moisture work in for later Wednesday into Thursday. Rain totals can be from a quarter to half an inch maximum. Models still have a good bit of disagreement on this system, and it is one we will really hone in on early next week. For now, expect more precipitation potential and cold air is in play, so we can see some snow potential over the northern part of the state, even if it does look minor at this point.

Scattered light snow showers return on Friday, and then there is potential for a stronger low circulation moving in for the New Year’s Day holiday. This is a new wrinkle but can bring moisture totals that may have a liquid equivalent of up to half an inch, as we start off 2017. We are keeping door open to both rain and snow possibilities at this point.

So, keep the umbrella handy this holiday weekend, it will be damp across most of the state, but that means temps are normal to above through the entire period, with cold air holding off until after Boxing day.