A chilly start today as high pressure is still trying to work its way across northern Indiana to set up in central and NW Ohio by this afternoon. This will keep north winds in this morning, but we do expect a fairly quick turn in winds to the southwest behind that high. The southwest flow will begin to help temps moderate, but we don’t see our most significant warming until tomorrow. Winds become very strong for tomorrow, averaging 15-30 mph and that will take temps well above normal. We should see highs tomorrow a good 10-20 degrees above normal. The strong wind will also signal a strong front moving closer from the west.

That front impacts our weather for Thursday. Precipitation actually begins overnight tomorrow night and now looks like it could be done by mid to late morning Thursday in many parts of the state. Action may linger into Thursday afternoon down in southern and southeastern parts of the state. Moisture totals continue to get smaller and are very unimpressive at this time. We could see a few hundredths to no more than a quarter of an inch of moisture from the event, and the upper end of the range will be over the southern third of the state. This is fast becoming a non-event, with the biggest story likely being the colder push that comes behind the front. Rains can still be up to three quarters of an inch in Kentucky, but really that is the only place we see good moisture.

Cold high pressure is back for Friday, and we may move into single digits or near zero overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. Those temperature levels will be most likely to be seen in east and northeast Ohio. South winds return on the backside of the high Saturday afternoon. Overnight Saturday night through Sunday a front bringing snow to a large part of the state. Temps look to fall dramatically and with the timing of precipitation starting overnight, when temps are already colder, we think we are looking at basically all snow. Temps will be below freezing over most of the state on Sunday, the freezing line Sunday afternoon all the way down to US 50 and perhaps farther south. This set up will create snow potential of 1-4” on the top end, but most of the state will be more along the lines of a coating to 2 inches. The map above shows snow potential out of the system through midnight Sunday.

Cold air remains on Monday, and we have a clipper bringing another brief spat of snow into the state on Tuesday. There we can see another coating to an inch or two over 80% of the state. Temps behind that clipper get colder and we could see some single digit to near zero readings for Wednesday morning. The rest of the week stays below normal.

For the extended period, we have another clipper bringing a chance of snow accumulation late the 8^th into the 9^th, another for the afternoon of the 10^th, and a stronger system for the 12^th. With temps staying below normal, we will be off to a cold and snowy start for the first two weeks of February.

 

Short term offers no change this morning. We have nothing different for today, tomorrow and even Friday. The next two days we see a similar pattern to yesterday, with a mix of clouds and sun. However, a cold front did slip through overnight, so temps may be slightly colder today than yesterday. On Friday we have clouds thickening up, and we can’t rule out some minor spits and sprinkles giving no more than a few hundredths to a tenth over about 40% of the state.

Friday night gets a lot more active and that pattern continues through Saturday and even into early Sunday. Rains look to be very impressive and we are bumping up our top end of our rain range. WE are now calling for weekend rains of .25”-1”, but the heavy rains staying south, near the river, and particularly into KY. These rains do not get to push north until they are farther east and make a run at Ohio. The front is impressive and it has good moisture flow ahead of it. The map below shows rain totals through Saturday mid-afternoon.

AS cold air blasts into the state on Sunday, we see some snow developing. However, we think the heaviest snow stays farther south and east of us. For now, we like coating to an inch or two over about 60% of the state. Better snow is possible farther east. We will be waiting to put out our official snow totals until later tomorrow afternoon. But, it continues to look like we dodge a big bullet for bad snow on Christmas Eve through Christmas Day. Christmas afternoon should be mostly dry and sun should try to come out. However, the cold air continues to build, and we will be looking at brutal wind chills Christmas night.

We are dry and very cold for Tuesday through Thursday. Temps will be well below normal. Then a clipper system rotates through the state for Thursday night and Friday, bringing potential for several inches of snow. This will be ahead of a stronger system lifting out of the southern plains for the start of New Year’s weekend. Temperatures remain very cold right on through into the New Year.

In the extended period, we have another clipper for late the 1^st into the 2^nd that brings snows out of the Great Lakes right across the region. WE follow that with a cold front for the 3^rd into the 4^th that can also trigger several inches of snow. The cold holds through at least the first third of January.

 

No change in the outlook today. We still look pretty good for the next few days. We dry out, stay above normal for temps, and see better sunshine chances through Thursday. Winds go west at a moderate clip today, and stay like that through Thursday as well

Friday, winds turn more southwest, and clouds move in. Friday itself we do not see an exceptional amount of precipitation – only a few hundredths to a tenth or two over about 40% of the state. But, that action ramps up overnight Friday night through Saturday morning, where we see rains of .25”-.75” over 90% of the state. There still a threat of thunderstorm action down near the river, but we think the heaviest rains stay south into Kentucky.

For the rest of Saturday and most of Sunday we dry back down, but we see much colder air starting to push in from the NW. Precipitation continues to flow up the old, slowing, stalling frontal boundary over KY and areas south, but at this point, we do not expect any of it to get into the state. Sunday is very cold in the north, but only slightly below normal in the south. Christmas day continues to be the wild card. Moisture tries to work into the state into the cold air, but for right now, it looks fairly limited. We will look for scattered snow showers over about 50% of the state, enough to make it look like Christmas, but for now, we are tentatively going to call a close miss on the potential of a stronger Christmas storm. There is time for the track to adjust farther north, but for now, we are looking at an OK Christmas. The bigger story will be the brutal cold for next week. From Tuesday right on through the end of the week, temps will be well below normal, and will be the coldest of the season to this point.

In the extended period, we see another strong storm circulation developing in the southern plains for the New Year’s weekend. Current track is far south, but we continue to watch this one for an adjusting track that may start off 2018 with a significant winter event. Stay tuned!

We have a fairly calm start to the week. Yesterday’s precipitation was very underwhelming, and honestly, a little disappointing, given how solid the front looked moving in. We will be dealing with lingering moisture through the day today, and in many cases, today will look similar to yesterday. However new moisture is not impressive, so with the clouds we are only looking at minor precipitation, spits and sprinkles here and there, for a total of no more than a few hundredths to .15” over 40% of the state.

Tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday look dry with better sunshine potential. Temps remain normal to above normal and we will see no snow left anywhere in the state by late this week (there is only minor snow cover remaining in northern Indiana as of this morning anyway, a lot of which was in areas that have not been able to see as much sun. We see good west winds through the period, with a turn to the strong southwest not likely until late in the week.

On Friday, we see those southwest winds develop, and clouds build quickly. However moisture is slower to arrive and we are projecting now only a few hit and miss showers for Friday during the day. Much better moisture fills in overnight Friday night through Saturday the 23^rd. Through Saturday midday we can see .25”-.75” over 90% of the state. Some models are trying to put much heavier rain in over southern Indiana with thunderstorms, but we are not going there yet. This Saturday precipitation will be the start of what could be a very interesting holiday weekend.

The balance of Saturday and most of Sunday will be dry, but colder air tries to come in from the NW. Meanwhile, moisture continues to flow up the old, stalled frontal boundary sitting to our south. Eventually, Christmas Eve night we see this moisture surge back north, covering most of the state by Christmas morning. Cold air maintains its advance from the northwest, setting up a potential Rain in the south changing to snow in the central and to light snow in the north kind of set up for early Christmas morning. And, the precipitation continues through Christmas day, adding to snows in the central and north. The precipitation finally leaves Tuesday the 26^th, by midday. It is way too early to project where heavy snows and problem spots will be, and we expect the track of this system to change over the next few days. But, this is the “headline event” of the weather over the next 10 days, especially since it dances around Christmas itself.

Behind that system, the bitter cold air is coming in and parking over the state. Temps will be well below normal through the turn of the month. WE should be mostly dry through the extended window, but a strong complex developing in the southern plains needs to be watched for the New Year’s weekend too…as that is an area we watch closely for winter storm development.