Winds have turned southwest to start the day today, but they will not stay that way for a long period. These southwest winds will help temperatures moderate a bit today, and we see a large part of the state over the freezing mark, with the southern half of the state pushing toward 40. However, wind go northwest later this afternoon and that brings cold air back along with some possible lake effect snow in far northern Indiana.

The lake effect snow continues off and on tonight through tomorrow, but will be limited mostly to areas 50 miles either side of a line from South Bend to Winchester. Snows will be light, but persistent all through the day tomorrow. Outside of that zone, we expect nothing more than flurries here and there.

At midweek, we are dry to start Wednesday, but our next clipper system looks to arrive in the afternoon and evening. This fast moving system brings another threat of snow to the state. However, unlike Saturday’s system that had a good southern push to it over Indiana, this one has a better focus for the north and east. Action develops in the northern third of the state Wednesday afternoon, and then spreads south into west central Ohio by evening. Snows can be from a coating to an inch or two. The snows really ramp up overnight in Ohio. The map above shows cumulative snow potential for later this afternoon through sunrise Thursday morning.

Thursday and Friday should be mostly dry with no frontal action moving in. There can be a few flurries in over the region here and there as cold air stays parked right no top of us. But, by Saturday we have good, strong southwest winds back, and that will help temps bounce a bit for the weekend. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday should max out in the upper 30s and low 40s.

We have a minor system moving across the southern half of the state overnight Sunday into early Monday. Precipitation can be a mix of rain and snow from I-70 southward, and we can see a few hundredths to .15” of liquid equivalent. Coverage will be 80% of the area south of I-70, and the northern half of the state sees basically nothing. Northern areas get their minor bit of rain ending as snow Monday night into early Tuesday. A few hundredths to .2” with 90% coverage north of US 24. Cold air returns behind that system.

In the extended period, we continue to see a significant front arriving late on the 21^st into the 22^nd. This system has the best moisture with it along and ahead of the front, meaning we should see predominantly rain, then changing over to and ending as snow. There should be good coverage over the state. Behind that, we are dry through Christmas weekend, with snow trying to develop out of an upper level low coming through the great lakes Christmas night into the 26^th.

After good lake effect snows in the northern part of the state yesterday, we take a bit of a break today, with winds pushing back to the west. Sun will mix with clouds through the day, but cold air is still the main feature.

A clipper system continues its path towards us for tomorrow. We will see this clipper interact with lake breezes to trigger some good snows across parts of the state. Right now, we look for the potential of 1-3 inches with 60% coverage north of US 24, away from the lake. In typical lake effect areas, we can see those totals significantly higher, perhaps up to 6 inches in Laporte and St. Joe counties. From US 24 to I-70 we can see a coating to an inch, with 60% coverage, South of I-70, we can see light snow and flurries, and perhaps a nice dusting in spots, but coverage will be 40% or less. Winds may cause snow to blow and visibility to be slightly lower, but still we do not expect major problems. The map above gives some ideas about snow potential for tomorrow. We finish the weekend on Sunday with very little new snow. We can see some additional lake effect flurries in parts of northern Indiana, but coverage will be very spotty. Clouds will mix with sun, in the vast majority of the region. Winds turn southwest late in the afternoon.

Monday could be an interesting day. Those southwest winds will have helped temperatures enough that we may be able to see most of the state above 35 degrees. However, we see a return of WNW winds through the midday hours and some lake effect snow may start to develop again in NE Indiana by mid to late afternoon. Most of the state should be in good shape though, for the start of the week. Overnight Monday night and Tuesday, we have scattered light snow showers over the northern and eastern parts of the state, and just some clouds in other areas. Coverage for that day will be about 40% of the state, but snows yield little to no accumulation, except in lake effect areas.

Our midweek clipper has dramatically dissipated and will likely only trigger some clouds for Wednesday into Thursday. However, a weak trough does move through the great lakes to start off next Friday and brings snows back to areas to areas north of US 24. Minor accumulations are possible there, mixed clouds and sun farther south. The cold air is a constant all the way through the period.

The weekend looks to be dry at this point, and southwest winds for Saturday may take temps back up to normal and slightly above normal levels. However, colder air begins to return next Sunday. In the extended period, an upper level low moves across the Great Lakes to start the week of Christmas and may bring some snow showers back to northern Indiana. But, we are more interested in a strong frontal complex sweeping through around the 21^st. This front has plenty of moisture coming up off the Gulf, and will likely bring rain to start, changing over to snow. Liquid equivalents with this frontal complex will be up to at least half an inch, and coverage will be 100%. We think it is completely within the realm of possibility to see a couple of inches from that system as it sits right now, and perhaps more if it holds together and cold air comes faster.

Strong winds are in over the state today out of the southwest. These winds are in advance of a cold front that should sweep through overnight night tonight through the first part of tomorrow. We should see clouds increase through the day, but at this time we are not overly concerned about moisture before the front itself arrives. When we finished last week we had some concern about some minor moisture trying to work through far northern Indiana this morning and midday. That concern is gone now. We won’t rule out a spit or sprinkle in one or two places, but good, organized moisture will not be around until later. The strong winds will be at least 15-30 mph sustained today, and will take temps well above normal one more time.

The cold front comes through tonight and will bring precipitation from after midnight tonight through tomorrow morning. Action should be out of the state by noon or before, meaning we are looking at roughly 8-12 hours of precipitation potential, and that is about it. In that time we should see .25”-.75” rain totals with coverage at 90% of the state.  However, the upper end of the range likely is going to be hard to see verify. The biggest thing that can promote those upper range rains will be stronger showers or even a thunderstorm. The national severe storms center says we have a marginal risk for strong storms tonight.

Behind the front tomorrow afternoon we will start to feel a dramatic change in temps. In fact, we are going to be heading to normal and below normal levels for the second part of the week. But, the flow pattern for Wednesday through Friday is more west than north, so that will do two things. 1: We will not see quite as cold of temps as we would with direct north flow. And 2: we do not have the concern about lake enhanced clouds and precipitation in here for the period either. That should allow slightly better chances of sun for rate period, even though we are going to see a significant temperature correction for the time of year.

The weekend and rest of the 10 day period also looks dry. High pressure will be in and we do see brutal cold for the weekend, with temps well below normal on Saturday and Sunday. But, we will be precipitation free. An upper level low moves in over the great lakes for next Thursday, the 14^th, and it will bring some precipitation threats. WE can see liquid potential of up to .5” over 80% of the state. We will have to wait until closer to the event to see what kind of air mass we are dealing with, but we would trend toward south flow allowing for rain to start and perhaps ending as snow. The rest of the extended period is mostly dry, with a mix of clouds and sun, and temps near to slightly below normal.

Keep the umbrella handy today. We have a weak cold front moving across the state, and it will trigger some minor precipitation. Right now we have no reason to deviate from our thoughts of a few hundredths to .3”, but we honestly think most of the state will be in the lower half of that range. There just is not a lot of moisture to work with here. However, clouds will be around all day, and will not break up until after midnight tonight.

Dry weather is back behind the front for tomorrow through the weekend. Most of the state will see that dry weather continue a 4^th day on Monday. However, we still see some precipitation threats over far northern Indiana Monday morning and midday, as the northern low of our big system lifts north and east, dragging a warm front through IL, WI and MI. Temps will moderate through the weekend and should be nicely above normal Monday, even in areas where it rains. Clouds will be a big part of the forecast Monday north of US 24, and rains will be limited to the northernmost 2 tiers of counties that morning.

Strong southwest flow pumps plenty of moisture into the second southern low. That circulation and the associated cold front blast through overnight Monday night and Tuesday. We continue to look for our best rains in this period, with .25”-.75” over about 70% of the state. The highest chances for thunderstorms are likely going to stay west of the state, with the front passing overnight Monday night. That means we are not timing things out in a way to see the biggest energy flows into any thunderstorms here. So, we like these rain totals, and do not think we will have to raise them due to thunderstorm fears. Still, it is a prospect we are watching closely.

Clouds break up Tuesday night, and we should be dry for the balance of the week, Wednesday through Friday. We expect Canadian high pressure to nose into the western Corn Belt, and while we never really fall under the influence of that high, we see it blocking any moisture or systems coming in from the west and northwest. Overall, we only see 2 systems in the next 10 days – what we see today, and then early next week.

No significant change in the extended forecast period this morning, except to push back our next system just a bit – about 12-18 hours or so. We now have a weak upper level circulation moving into the great lakes closer to the 10^th, but it has potential of only a few hundredths to a tenth or two. The rest of the period looks mostly dry, but colder. Northwest flow will keep temps closer to and below normal as we move toward mid-month.