Indiana Statewide Weather Outlook 12-12-16

 

Lingering moisture this morning will move away quickly today as our frontal boundary sweeps through. Snows fell pretty close to levels we expected over the weekend, with the only difference between our thoughts and the actual event coming down to timing…the snow started earlier than we were looking for, and therefore is out sooner today than we anticipated. No biggie…we have no problem with that. Now, we prepare to get much colder in the days ahead.

We see significant arctic air getting pulled into the region behind the front that is exiting to the east this morning. This air will peak Wednesday and Thursday mornings, where we see temps pushing into the low single digits and even see a few readings near 0. In this cold air we have the potential for one weak little clipper type event tomorrow afternoon that can bring a little bit of snow to the northern half of the state (a coating to an inch or so…nothing serious). Farther south, we see nothing. South winds will begin to arrive Thursday afternoon and that should push temps back closer to normal for the latter part of the week.
The biggest story that will be talked about this week will the potential for a major storm moving through this weekend. Models show a significant area of low pressure hooking out of the central plains and heading across the state. There is a lot of moisture with this system…with liquid equivalent precipitation at over 1.5” in parts of the state. And, cold air is cmc_pr6_slp_t850_indy_27coming in with this…so there will be potential for snow as well. The liquid equivalent precipitation range will be at least half to 1.5” with coverage at 100% of the state. WE like all rain over the southern third of the state, but the rest of the state can see rain, snow, heavy snow, or a combination of all three. Right now, the track and arrival of cold air points to a chance of major snows in west central Indiana, including Terre Haute. But…this will be a system that will be exceptionally track dependent…meaning we will not be putting out any precipitation totals for a while. In fact…it could be all rain!!  Systems that produce the heaviest snows always do it with a very sharp rain/snow line and a massive liquid core. This system looks like it may have that, and we just have to see where it wants to set up. Either way…rain, or snow – there will be plenty of moisture in here this coming weekend. The map above is a shows a potential snapshot of Saturday evening.

Behind the strong system for this weekend, yet another arctic blast awaits. This one will be in for the start of the week leading up to Christmas, and will be colder than what we see this week. Single digit temps are likely over a larger part of the state, and we can see some areas push below zero for the first time this season.

In the extended forecast window, models suggest another system for Christmas Eve into Christmas day. However, at this time, there looks to be enough of a southerly surge of warmer air to put most of the precipitation in as rain. That may quash hopes for a white Christmas…but there also is plenty of time between now and then, and plenty of cold air that can alter model depictions of future events. So…stay tuned. For now, the active, and colder than normal pattern for the month is set to continue for a little while…well into the extended part of the forecast period.

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s