Rains moved in yesterday and we continue to see some lingering action this morning over eastern and southern parts of the state. However, we should see a little bit of a lull in the action through midday and afternoon working in from west to east, before another wave of action slides through late this afternoon and tonight. This second push of moisture will still likely be rain, although we are seeing much colder air work in as well from the north and west. All told, we think we can pick up another .1” to .5” of rain today, and we have to watch tonight for any of that rain to try and switch over to snow before ending. We do not think it will lead to any serious accumulation.
We should be mostly dry tomorrow (Wednesday) and then with strong north winds coming down the fetch of the great lakes, we can see some lake enhancement of our next system, a clipper like system that rips through on Thursday. Moisture does not look overly impressive, mostly a tenth to .15” or less, but it will be cold enough to be all snow, so we look for minor accumulations over about 80% of the state. Up north near the lakes, we can see slightly higher amounts with the lake effect. Still, but Friday morning everything is long gone.
High pressure is in for Saturday and Sunday, leading to some sunshine and overall pleasant weather, at least for January. Temps will be near normal. Then we see a return to southwest flow for Monday, and as our next little trough moves through, we can see some light snow flying over about 60% of the state. Little to no accumulation. This will just be the precursor to our next front that moves through later Tuesday into Wednesday. Action starts as some snows overnight Tuesday night. These can bring accumulations of a coating to a few inches mostly over the northern half to third of the state. Then we see rains from .25”-.6” for Wednesday morning and Wednesday afternoon with coverage at 80%. Cold air returns Wednesday night in the wake of the front. Dry then for the balance of the 10 day period through next Thursday.
In the extended window, we see another significant front trying to work through around the 14th into the 15th. This could have liquid equivalent precipitation of .25”-.75” with coverage at 100% of the state. However, models are largely divergent on the air mass that comes in with the system. The European is much colder, meaning we would be looking at bigger snow potential, while the GFS still likes the warm surge first, with cold air coming after rains are done. We think the colder solution is likely…and like a below normal month of January for temps. But, time will tell. Suffice to say, we still look for a normally active pattern through the first half to eh month, with systems every few days. There is nothing really too far out of the ordinary here.