South America weather:

• Dryness is becoming more of a concern in northeast Brazil as places like Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and northeast Goias have missed out on recent moisture.
• Thunderstorms do form over Goias tomorrow afternoon, but they don’t seem to move north and east.
• Most of the action in Brazil this week will be pop up, heat based thunderstorms, and we don’t see any fronts moving across the country for the rest of this week.
• This week, we’ll see below normal rainfall in Brazil’s key growing areas, likely .25-1.25” combined now-Sunday, with those drier areas still not getting rain this week as well.
• Better moisture develops in south/southeast Brazil next week, from southeast Matto Gross over to Goias through southwest Minas Gerais and areas to the south of that line.
• Rain totals next week will be 1-2” combined and it’ll park for multiple days in those areas.
• That leaves the balance of Matto Grosso, northern Goias, Minas Gerais, and Bahia dry again.
• Temps in those drier areas look to be normal to above, with the rest of Brazil trending normal to slightly above.
• Northern Minas Gerais is likely the area that’ll develop heat stress with the warmest temps in the forecast.
• Harvest is underway in Matto Grosso and it’ll be aided by dryness in the short term.
• Temps cool off next week and go back below normal in MGDS, through Parana, Sao Paulo, and southwest Minas Gerais, which means any heat stress isn’t going to be a long term challenge.

• The Argentina setup looks more like a north versus south deal.
• Northern Argentina should see good mositure over the next 10-14 days, but central and southern areas will see lower totals.
• Tomrrow-Thursday, they’ll see a big cluster of thunderstorms over the northern half of Argentina growing areas that’ll put down 1-3” of rain.
• Today-tomorrow, there will be scattered showers ahead of it in BA, Cordoba, and La Pampa, with coverage at 30% of the southern half of growing areas.
• High pressure will dominate Saturday-Sunday, but a small cluster of thunderstorms will fire up in BA and Cordoba on Saturday night.
• Big showers will fall in the northern half to 2/3 of Argentina on Tuesday-Wednesday, with another 1-2” of rain and nothing in the southern 1/3 of growing areas.
• The best action in the south will be Thursday night-Friday, where they could see .5-1” of rain in all southern areas that had been missed up to that point.
• All growing areas in Argentina get at least 1.5” of rain, with central/northern areas getting 2-2.5” over the next 10 days.
• Temps in Argentina will be normal to slightly above as things get a little warmer in the north, with central and southern areas still cooler than normal during the day but warmer than normal at night.

Ukraine/Black Sea region weather:

• Reports are that 80% of the winter crops in that area look very good and there’s nothing in the outlook that’ll change our thought process on that.
• Moisture will come through in a timely manner as fronts sweep through, with one coming across the Black Sea and over southern Ukraine from Thursday-Friday of this week.
• Another system will move through at the end of this weekend/early next week.
• Timely moisture and good snowcover for wheat areas in the region.
• Temps are moving to normal/slightly below normal after trending above in recent days.
• Brutal cold weather may move into Ukraine and parts of Russia by the end of the weekend and early next week, but there’s plenty of snow cover on top of the winter wheat crop.

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