Regional Weather Outlook 2-6-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • Moisture is developing in the southwest Corn Belt this morning and holds on through the afternoon in the Deep South, then moving up into Illinois and Indiana overnight tonight-tomorrow.
  • The low this activity is centered around moves into IA and MO around midnight, with the moisture becoming more organized from the mid-MS river valley up through OH, IN, and IL, before working into MI.
  • Rain continues off and on through all of tomorrow, with wraparound moisture hanging on in MI through sunset carrying into IN and the Ohio valley.
  • The moisture is off to the east by Tuesday night, and that’s when strong north winds bring down cold air, but the moisture will be off to the east so there’s no concern about any potential big snowfall amounts.
  • A little light snow may move through IA, northern MO, and west central IL, thanks to a secondary wave coming out of the plains, with totals of a coating-2” maximum and coverage at 20-30% of the western Corn Belt.
  • Gusty winds will blow over the Corn Belt but they don’t look as strong as they did last week, anywhere from 12-25 MPH as the Corn Belt transitions to cold air.
  • Strong high pressure comes out of the northern plains by Wednesday, moving into the western Corn Belt and really taking control by Thursday and holding through Friday.
  • The high is off to the east by Friday afternoon, which will allow strong south winds to bring the temps back up and it will trigger some precipitation in the Great Lakes region.
  • Watching for a strong low coming out of the central plains on Sunday, with the low sitting over northwest IN at sunrise on Sunday, and as a result, the best precipitation will develop over the northern half of the Corn Belt.
  • Most of the precipitation will fall north of I-80, but it does hit some areas south of I-80 in IL, IN, and OH, as rain totals look like .03-.2” and that falls between midnight and 4 a.m.
  • The heavier rains fall over the rest of the day Sunday from I-80 northward into the Great Lakes, where they could see .5-1” rain totals.
  • A cold front will also try to sweep through the eastern Corn Belt, including OH and eastern IN, through the rest of Sunday, leaving behind .25-.5” of moisture.
  • Another round of high pressure will move in behind that, drying things out very late in the weekend and into next week from Monday-Wednesday.
  • A high moves in over IA, which may mean a dry finish to next week as well, which means we could go the entire week with above normal temps in the Corn Belt and no precipitation.
  • Right now, it doesn’t look like the cold February I was looking for will come to fruition, but we’ll still keep an eye on that.

 

Deep South weather:

  • Scattered showers fall in the region over the next 24 hours, developing into a much stronger shower and thunderstorm event tomorrow morning.
  • They start in AR and move eastward through MS, western TN, and western KY, before moving over the entire rest of the region midday Tuesday-Wednesday.
  • Rain totals over the Deep South will be .25-1” with higher amounts likely in the western part of the region where more thunderstorms will break out, and coverage will be 75-80% of the region.
  • Another round of scattered showers moves in Wednesday night-Thursday, primarily falling from AL eastward, with the best moisture potential in NC, SC, and GA, totaling .1-.5” maximum and 75% coverage.
  • The south dries out after that with strong high pressure in control Friday-Sunday, and there won’t be anything more than widely scattered showers through next week.
  • Those scattered showers develop overnight Sunday night-Monday morning, giving .25” or less and coverage only at 30% of the region.
  • While the bulk of the region is dry next week, there will be some strong thunderstorms developing in TX, and these likely kick out and try to move over the Gulf Coast and hit southern LA Wednesday night-Thursday before moving into the FL panhandle.
  • Most of the activity should stay south of the land mass, but if a low kicks out into the region it could push it farther north, so time will tell.
  • Temps will be normal to above normal over the next 7-10 days.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • Low pressure is working through the northern plains today, with strong gusty winds over ND and SD and some light snow falling.
  • Moisture equivalents aren’t high so they’ll see a coating-3” in ND and a coating-1” in SD, but the winds will likely create some blowing and drifting problems there for the next 36-48 hours.
  • High pressure moves in behind it over the rest of this week from Wednesday-Friday.
  • Tuesday night-Wednesday, along the leading edge of the high, light snow will develop over NE, southeast WY, and northeast CO, with coverage at 25% of the plains, and there will be some snow accumulations.
  • As that snow moves east, strong arctic high pressure is in for the second half of this week, parking right over eastern NE Thursday morning and bring colder than normal temps for 1.5 days.
  • As the high moves east, south winds ramp up on the backside and moderate temps quickly from Thursday afternoon-Friday.
  • Another low kicks out of CO next weekend and could trigger light precipitation in southern SD and eastern WY, northeast CO, and into the NE panhandle, with total coverage in the plains at 30% or less and moisture totals of .25-.5” or less.
  • With the low having the strength we’re seeing right now, it won’t take much to push it into a bigger circulation if it can find a moisture source.
  • Things dry out behind that wave of activity with the plains dry the following week from OK northward.
  • Temps in the plains will be normal to slightly above, although there will be about two days worth of an arctic high bringing in cold temps, the region warms up quickly behind it.

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