Much colder air races into the state today. We should start the day with temps in the 30s, but slowly fall into and through the 20s…or at the very least stay steady. A secondary plume of moisture ahead of our approaching high pressure dome does push into the state today. This moisture comes right into the cold air mass, and will trigger snow. 24 hours ago we were looking for this moisture to stay farther south, but is has lifted somewhat, enough to put the best snows over the northern half of the state, rather than the central third. Accumulations still don’t look to be any more than a coating to an inch or two in most area, and may end up peaking out along the US 24 corridor. Coverage will be about 45-50% of the state at best. Clouds will be seen all the way through southern Indiana, and we can’t rule out flurries down south…but nothing overly dramatic. The closer you get to the river, the better chance of just seeing spits, sprinkles or drizzle. The map above shows snow potential from mid morning through 7 PM this evening.
Dry weather is in for tomorrow through Saturday, as high pressure works through the state. The coldest air of the week will be in tomorrow as that high draws in cold Canadian air. But, as the high moves east as get a big, quick rebound with strong southwest winds developing Friday midday/afternoon and holding into the start of the weekend. We should see most of the state in the 40s and 50s again by the weekend.
Scattered showers work through the state Saturday night into Sunday with a warm front, and then a cold front sweeps through from the NW Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. All told, we expect .25”-.5” rain totals over about 80% of the state for the second half of the weekend. Temps pull back behind the front for Sunday night.
Dry and cold for Monday and Tuesday, but then temps moderate back to normal and above normal levels for the second half of next week. Models are still undecided on the potential of a strong system for next Thursday. After several runs keeping a strong circulation in for the state in that time frame, this morning, mysteriously it is completely gone…with no hint of is existence. We are not changing our forecast this morning based on one model run, but the larger picture shows a flow pattern emerging that may make it difficult for any strong low to be able to maintain organization. There is a strong high pressure dome trying to emerge over FL and the Gulf of Mexico late next week…that that would rob any system of a moisture source…so we anticipate having to decrease our moisture look for the second half of next week tomorrow (or even later today) when we get a couple of different looks at the setup from other models and subsequent model runs. Stay tuned.
The extended period still features only one front for the period around the 20th, with rain potential of half to 1 inch. However, temps look warmer than normal for the extended window, meaning we likely do see rains out of that system for Presidents Day.