International Weather Outlook 2-8-17

Brazil:

  • Rainfall in northeast Brazil over the next 2 days will add up to 1-3” with coverage at 70%.
  • Moisture will spread today over central/northern Brazil, including Matto Grosso to Goias and into Bahia, totaling 1-1.25” with 80% coverage.
  • Most of the precipitation will be in the north this week, with the south not seeing as much moisture this week, with only a few pop up showers and thunderstorms.
  • A significant frontal complex moves through this weekend into southern Brazil, including Matto Grosso do Sul Saturday, and lifting north and east through Sunday, bringing significant rains to Matto Grosso through Parana.
  • It gives moisture totals of .5-2” across south/southeast Brazil Saturday-Sunday, with 90-100% coverage in Matto Grosso Sunday-Monday, before moving into Goias and northeast Brazil.
  • It’s a slow-moving system that’ll bring good rains to all of Brazil, so any second-crop corn going in should get some nice rains to start it off.
  • Tuesday-Thursday gets stormier over Matto Grosso and Goias, as thunderstorms fire off across an old frontal boundary, and the potential is there for excessively wet weather Tuesday-Wednesday, adding another 1-3” but it should be out of all crop areas by midday on Thursday.
  • Brazil dries out Thursday afternoon-Saturday, allowing crops to use the moisture from earlier in the week.
  • Temps will be normal to above normal over the next 7-10 days.

 

Argentina:

  • Dry today as high pressure sits over the top of Argentina and be in control for several days, although as it shifts off the coast there could be moisture sneaking up the backside and into southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa.
  • Totals will only be .1-.3” where it does fall and coverage will be no more than 30%.
  • If the moisture can take root, it could spawn better showers on tomorrow in Cordoba, which models are suggesting but the front doesn’t look spectacular to me right now.
  • It turns into a much better moisture producer farther north on tomorrow night-Friday, with the northern half of the country getting .5-1.5” rains, with coverage at 75-80% of that northern half of the country, although the heaviest rains will be further north out of most crop areas.
  • Moisture circulating around another low moves into BA this weekend, along with southern Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, giving another 1” of rain Saturday night-Sunday.
  • I see 1” totals now, but if it sits there for a while, the totals could become problematic for areas that have seen too much rain already, with potential to throw rains into BA from Sunday night-Tuesday even as it moves offshore.
  • The rest of Argentina looks completely dry next week, which may not be good news for some of the drier areas of the country.
  • Temps look slightly above normal over the next 7-10 days.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea/Russia weather:

  • Gusty winds continue to howl over the entire region today yet.
  • As snowfall ends this morning, the region breaks into a cold pattern, with temps at freezing or below from the Black Sea northward.
  • Below zero temps are possible in western Ukraine, but in Russia’s southern region it stays above freezing through later this week.
  • A strong high pressure dome settles in over central Russia at the end of the week-into the weekend, keeping most of the area dry, and that dryness holds through most of next week.
  • A cool front sags southward into the region on Tuesday but it won’t have any moisture left to work with when it gets to the region.
  • Temps will try to moderate over the second half of next week, getting above freezing in a lot of areas.
  • Temps will be normal to below this week and normal to above next week.

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