Regional Weather Outlook 2-17-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • Well above normal temps will be the main story in the Corn Belt this weekend/early next week.
  • Temps will be 20-25 degrees above normal over the entire Corn Belt, with the warmest air over western IL, IA, southern WI, and southern MN.
  • South winds are fueling the warmup and 50-60-degree temps are likely.
  • The next round of moisture kicks out of the central plains overnight Sunday night-Monday, bringing moisture to the western Corn Belt on Monday, totaling .25-.5” with 70% coverage in areas west of the MS River.
  • As the low lifts more north and east, it pulls apart, so there should be .03-.5” possible in MI on Tuesday-Wednesday, but IN, eastern IL, and areas near the OH River may not see more than a few hundredths to a third of an inch, with coverage at 40-50%.
  • Although temps will be cooler than what we see this weekend, they’ll still be above normal.
  • Dry and sunny on Wednesday-Thursday before a big low moves out of the Rockies and central plains, tracking from northeast CO, across NE on Thursday night-Friday, and then works into southern IA Friday-Saturday.
  • A big amount of snow will fall across the top of the low with cold air coming in, so snowfall will be heavy in MN, WI, northern IA, southern WI, northern IL, will all see some snow.
  • Some rain will mix in there as well, so snowfall amounts will depend on where the cold air line sets up, but we’ll say it’s predominantly snow from I-80 northward.
  • The low tracks across IA and hits the IL/WI line by Friday night-early Saturday, continuing to put down heavy snow in the Upper Midwest, with MN and WI in the bullseye for some of the heaviest snow.
  • Winds will average 20-40 MPH on the top/backside of the system so blowing and drifting snow will be a problem.
  • Rains fall in southern MI/IN on Friday night-Saturday, totaling .25-.5”, and they won’t see snow primarily because the low is lifting more north than east.
  • Cold air does follow the system into the region, spreading from the west into the eastern Corn Belt on Saturday, with below normal temps for about 12 hours before they try to moderate as the freezing line heads back north and most of the Corn Belt returns to above normal.
  • Watching a couple of potential systems moving into the Corn Belt March 1-2 and another on March 7-8.

 

Deep South weather:

  • High pressure sitting just off the coastline is keeping the region clear, but there will be some moisture coming up the backside of the high over the Gulf of Mexico during the overnight/through tomorrow.
  • Some of the moisture will try to come ashore in parts of LA, as well as the FL panhandle, then over the rest of the peninsula tomorrow night-Sunday, they’ll see some rain/thunderstorms there.
  • Otherwise, the Deep South looks mostly dry through the weekend and that’ll continue through early Monday morning.
  • A line of rain/thunderstorms move into the western part of the region by midday on Monday, with AR and LA picking up some heavy thunderstorm action Monday afternoon, with rain totals of 1-1.5” with 90% coverage west of the MS River.
  • The action then slowly works eastward overnight Monday night-Tuesday, sitting over AL on Tuesday evening, moving east on Wednesday and diminishing in intensity during the day.
  • Totals over the rest of the Deep South look like .5-1.5” with 60% coverage.
  • Areas like NC, SC, and eastern GA have the best chance of missing out on the rain.
  • Wednesday-Thursday look like a drier setup before a cool front that’s an offshoot from the big low in the Corn Belt moves through next Friday-Sunday.
  • It may be worth .25-.5” of moisture with 70% coverage.
  • Cold air pushes in on Sunday morning, Feb 26, but temps ease up quickly as high pressure dominates through the rest of the 10-day period.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • Calm and tranquil weather through today and a good chunk of the weekend before moisture begins to come together in the Four Corners region on Sunday night-Monday, leading to scattered showers across TX, OK, and central KS.
  • Totals will be .25-1”, with the higher amounts in TX and OK, and coverage will be 30% of TX, 80% of OK, but only 40% of KS.
  • They’ll see moisture from a low pressure area kick off in ND and SD on Monday, bringing rains of .25-.5” with a few sprinkles possible down in NE.
  • The plains then dry out Tuesday-early Thursday.
  • That monster low moves out of the Rockies and into the central plains on Thursday afternoon, moving from northeast CO into south central NE by Thursday night.
  • Heavy snows break out on the topside of the low, where SD will heavy snow by late Thursday afternoon and it continues into Saturday.
  • SD is in line to pick up the heaviest snow with NE in second place, with 20-40 MPH winds combining with 8-10” of snow or more.
  • Keep in mind, this is a week out so don’t take my snow totals as gospel just yet, we’re trying to draw attention to a serious snow event by the end of next week.
  • The low finally kicks out north and east on Friday night-Saturday when the low moves over the IL/WI line, but there will still be wraparound snow in southeast SD and eastern NE, but snow finally should be done by midday Saturday.
  • A cold high pressure dome comes in behind it, pushing temps back closer to normal, even a bit below, for a couple of days, but south winds will start to push temps back up later next weekend.
  • Another strong system is possible for March 1-2 and again on March 6-7.

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