Regional Weather Outlook 2-21-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • A cool front is working across the eastern Corn Belt today, bringin moisture with it that’s dissipating as it moves further east, so from here on there won’t be more than .03-.2” of moisture.
  • We will see slightly cooler temps behind the front from Wednesday-Thursday but it will still be well above normal over the entire Corn Belt.
  • The next weather system kicks out of the central plains on Thursday and heads northeast, dragging moisture into IA on Thursday evening before lifting into the northern half of the Corn Belt overnight Thursday night-Friday.
  • It brings significant moisture and significant snow into the Upper Midwest, with the heaviest precipitation from midnight Thursday night-Friday morning to be north of I-80.
  • They’ll see strong thunderstorms in IL, into lower MI, with strong snow in lower WI, lower MN, and possibly just into northern IA.
  • The low heads northeast, so the rest of the Corn Belt will see gusty winds and warm weather until a cool front coming out of the low late Friday afternoon brings showers and some thunder as well from Friday night-early Saturday.
  • Totals will be .25-.75” with 60% coverage across eastern IL, IN, and OH, with the action moving out quickly and gone by midday on Saturday.
  • There could be some lake-effect snow on Saturday in northern IN, MI, and northeast IL, and sunshine everywhere else.
  • Strong high pressure moves into the Corn Belt Saturday night and holds through Sunday, with north winds keeping it cool along the eastern edge of the high through Sunday, but south winds up the backside start to warm the western Corn Belt by Sunday afternoon.
  • Early next week, another weather system tries to move in out of the plains, bringing moisture through western/central Corn Belt overnight Monday night-Tuesday, with totals of only .25-.5” maximum.
  • There’s a possibility of more waves of moisture from Tuesday night-Wednesday with the way the low is setting up, so there’s a possibility of combined moisture totals Tuesday-Wednesday of .5-1.5” of rain with 75% coverage in the Corn Belt.
  • Areas that may get missed out include MN, WI, and parts of IA; there will be heavy rains in MO, IL, IN, and parts of OH, so the longer the system draws out with waves of action moving in, the higher the totals will be.
  • Dry high pressure will follow that up toward the end of next week, March 1-2, with the potential for another system out toward the end of the 10-day forecast, between March 5-7.

 

Deep South weather:

  • A cluster of thunderstorms is moving through AR, LA, and the western Deep South today, pushing through the central and eastern parts of the region tomorrow, with totals of .5-1.5” and coverage at 80% of the region.
  • The low drifts a bit south so places like VA, NC, and SC, might miss out on the best precipitation totals.
  • Dry weather moves in for the balance of Thursday-Friday, before a low pressure area to the north pushes a cold front into KY and TN Friday night-Saturday, bringing moisture to 30% of the region, which means a large part of the Deep South stays dry over the weekend.
  • Strong high pressure sits over the region on Sunday morning, holding through Monday, before moisture moves up the backside of the high in western parts of the region Monday night-Tuesday, including AR and northwest LA, where they’ll see scattered showers.
  • A better flow of moisture moves in Tuesday night-Wednesday, with AR getting heavy thunderstorms on Wednesday and hitting northern LA as well, but the main focal point of the precipitation will be along the OH River valley.
  • A strong front will sweep across the rest of the Deep South on Thursday, with bands of strong to severe weather possible as rain totals look like .5-2” with 90% coverage of the region once this front picks up steam.
  • The moisture is gone by sunrise on Friday morning with sunshine and blue sky through next weekend.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • Dry weather in play for the next couple of days in the plains, but by Thursday, low pressure comes together in eastern CO, with a snow event breaking out in WY, NE, southern SD, and northwest KS.
  • Snow totals will be between 3-8” in NE, southern SD, and WY; 1-4” possible in northeast CO, and 1-3” in northwest KS.
  • There won’t be moisture anywhere else with ND and northern SD staying dry the rest of the week, and I-70 southward will stay dry as well.
  • The entire plains will be dry this weekend with high pressure in control, as strong north winds on the front side of the high keep it cooler on Saturday, then south winds up the backside of the high moderate temps already on Sunday.
  • Light rain circulates around low pressure Monday night-Tuesday totaling .03-.25” maximum with coverage at 30% of the plains.
  • Later next week, another low pressure area comes together in the Four Corners region and moves east, setting moisture up for next weekend.
  • March 4-5, scattered light rain showers and some snow are possible if cold air can move in, but it won’t hit the entirety of the plains.
  • For example, there will be some scattered light precipitation in ND on Wednesday, light rain in southeast OK/northeast TX Tuesday night-Wednesday, and that hit and miss kind of pattern continues through the forecast period, keeping the plains on the drier side.

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