Indiana Weather Outlook 3-8-17

Dry, but breezy today, with west winds dominating. We expect wind speeds to average 12-25 mph over a good chunk of the state. However, no new frontal boundary passages are expected and we should see mostly tranquil weather today and most of tomorrow.

Tomorrow night some minor precipitation moves over the southern half of the state. Liquid potential is from a few hundredths of an inch up to about a quarter of an inch. The European model tries to change rain over to snow toward the end of that period Friday morning, but we think we are looking mostly at rain. Still, it will be something to revisit tomorrow morning, as any change over would have some impact on I-70, especially east of Indianapolis.

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_indy_19Dry the rest of Friday into very early Saturday. The snow event expected to spread over the state for Saturday has seen the pendulum swing back the other way, from heavy snows to minor snows. This kind of swing is precisely why we don’t put out official snow totals until 48 hours in advance of the event. WE are not taking snow out of the forecast, but track of the low and available moisture are still up in the air. So, look for snow potential over at least the southern half of the state Saturday, but totals are unclear. WE actually expect the models to flip-flop back the other way again at least 1 time before settling this all out. Stay tuned. The map above is the latest GFS projection of snow accumulations through midnight Saturday…quite the change from 24 hours ago!  FLIP FLOP!

Sunday should be dry and cool over most of the state, and then we have another system passing by to the north on Monday. That triggers a little bit of light snow over the norther part of the state to start next week, but it too does not look as impressive as perhaps some model runs earlier in the week. We may even end up with a bit of mixed precipitation to start the week.

A stronger system is in for next Wednesday night and Thursday. Liquid equivalent precipitation will be from .25”-.6” with coverage at 80% of the state. However, in the northern third, there is potential for a large part of that precipitation to be snow, if cold air holds on. That kind of moisture would lead to snow accumulation rather easy, even if the snow is very wet, low ratio snow.

Behind that system we are dry to finish the week, but expect another front around the 19th into the 20th, and another around the 24th. So, as we mentioned yesterday, the pattern for March looks to get more active in these coming 2 weeks, and we can see ample precipitation. The precipitation type, though, is still very much up in the air.

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