Indiana Weather Outlook 3-16-17

gfs_tprecip_indy_11No significant changes this morning to the overall forecast pattern. Winds are starting to turn more to the south today and we should see temps moderate quite a bit over yesterday’s deep chill. Sunshine will be a big player statewide today. We should see south flow all day ahead of our next frontal boundary that brings liquid back to the state for tomorrow. We like rain totals of .25”-.5” with coverage at nearly 60%. That coverage is slightly lower this morning than our forecast 24 hours ago. That is a factor of the precipitation range. The 40% covers areas that are under .25” of precipitation…and if you put coverage of just any precipitation at all…we would likely be up toward 90% or even full coverage over the state tomorrow. But…the better rain totals will be somewhat more limited as things look this morning. Our concern about precipitation starting as snow is lower at this time is nearly non-existent, but in far northeast Indiana and east central areas, perhaps we can see a few snowflakes early tomorrow morning. It will not be a big deal. Above is a map of total precipitation for the event tomorrow through midnight.

We still look for a dry weekend with sunshine and nearly normal temps. However, moisture and clouds come back quicker, and we have to allow for at least a little bit of scattered action Monday, even though the bigger rains happen Monday night through Tuesday.  We are looking for rain totals of .25”-1”, with 70% coverage. Again, more of the state will likely see rain, but it will, be under a quarter of an inch. And, the heavier rains, from half to 1 inch, will stay south of I-70. Southern Indiana is where we expect some potential thunderstorm action to start off Tuesday.

High pressure moves in quickly for next Wednesday but shoots out just as quickly. Another cold front replaces it for next Thursday and Friday. The moisture is scattered and pretty light for Thursday and then picks up in intensity as we get closer to the front Friday. However, the action probably lingers through Friday overnight into early Saturday before the cold front finally exits, and there can be a line or two of stronger thunderstorms that actually setup along the front. Combined rain totals over the 60 hour period will be from .25”-1.25” with coverage at 75%. The best rains come from Friday midday through Saturday morning.

The extended pattern has developed into a very, very active period with our next front showing up around the 27th, and then constant waves of rain and thunderstorm action can move through daily from the 27th through the 31st. Liquid potential looks impressive, and we could see 5 day rain totals of up to 2 inches or more, state wide. This may be one of those years where March came in like a lion, and left as an even more ticked off lion!

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