No changes today to our overall forecast pattern. WE have a wet weekend in store, and 3 systems over the next 10 days, with 5 in the next 15 days. It will be a very active pattern into early April.
Very warm and mild today over the state thanks to southwest winds streaming in. Temps will be well above normal. This southwest flow is coming in ahead of a strong cold front and low pressure circulation that moves through tomorrow and Sunday. Rains for the complete weekend period look to be from .25”-1.5”, but we are reserving the top half of that range, from .75” to 1.5” only for areas that see significant thunderstorm action, which should be limited to under 10% of the state, thanks to timing of the frontal passage here. Most of the state will be between .25” and .75”. Coverage of rain this weekend will be nearly 100%. The map above shows cumulative rain totals through midnight Sunday.
We still have a brief dry period from overnight Sunday night through Monday midday. But we do not see clouds break very much. Our next little wave comes through for Monday night through Tuesday mid-morning. Rain totals look a little more impressive this morning for that wave, and we are upping our rain totals to .25”-.66” with coverage up to 80% of the state. The better rain totals may be over the northern half of the state, but we probably should not try and finesse the coverage that closely. Dry for the rest of Tuesday through Thursday.
The third system of this 10 day period begins to push in late Thursday night and has its biggest impact Friday. Rains are pegged in the .25”-1” range with coverage
90% of the state. The biggest change in our forecast comes around day 10, as we see another quick hit system arriving for Sunday the 2nd, with only 12-18 hours’ worth of down time in-between next Fridays rains and the Sunday event. Rain for Sunday the 2nd can be from .25”-.75” but if the system slows in its arrival from the southwest, those rain totals may need to be bumped, and we may have to talk about severe weather, as this system stretches into the extended period.
A final system for our forecast period holds on for the 6th and 7th, with rain totals up to half an inch.
Overall, temps look to be mostly normal to above normal while these rains develop and move through. Soil moisture totals should be seen at “surplus” levels by the time we make it through the first full week of April.
The Official "weatherstud" Forecast Center 