Turning drier today after strong thunderstorms moved through parts of the state yesterday and last night. This morning we may see some lingering showers over the extreme southern part of the state, but by midday we will be done with all precipitation. Clouds will try and break this afternoon. Colder air is surging into the state behind the front that passed last night, and we expect high temps today to be about 10-15 degrees cooler (or maybe a bit more in spots) than what we saw yesterday. The dry weather holds through tomorrow with high pressure directly over the state tomorrow morning. Then, on the backside of the high, we see south winds starting to moderate temps later tomorrow afternoon and that continues through Thursday. Thursday should also be dry.
That dry outlook for Thursday pushes our next slow moving front back a day, now slated to arrive for Friday. This will trigger rains of a few hundredths up to a third of an inch over the northern third of the state for Friday. This is a warm front, and that is why moisture just kind of breaks out over the northern part of the state and does not go much of anywhere.
The low that warm front attaches to passes by to the north over the weekend, and a couple of cool fronts will sweep through the state associated with it. This will bring rains to a large part of the state. We are looking at combined rains of .25”-75” with 70% coverage. The better day for rains still looks to be Saturday over Easter Sunday, but we will not call for a dry Easter yet. Thunderstorms could allow for better rains in the upper end of the range, but right now, our thunderstorm threat looks to be not too bad.
We are still dry for Monday and Tuesday of next week with mostly sunny skies. WE do have a strong front looking to come in for Tuesday night through Wednesday. We like rain totals here to be at .25”-1” with coverage at 80%. However to get most places into the upper end of the range, we will need more thunderstorm action. Right now, the timing of the system has most of the state getting the best moisture overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, which will limit thunderstorms to only a few areas. Then, through the day Wednesday, we see the best moisture already gone. So, timing will be very important.
Our look at the extended window shows no changes. WE have two systems, one around the 21st-22nd that brings potential for .25”-1”, and another closer to the 25th-26th. The second system still looks to have the best chance for heavier rains.
The Official "weatherstud" Forecast Center 