Indiana Weather Outlook 4-26-17

We work through our last nice, dry day for a while today. Off to the west a strong frontal boundary is gearing up to tear across the Corn Belt. This front impacts the Hoosier state tomorrow, and may start after midnight tonight. Rains are likely going to be from .5”-1.25”, which is a slight increase from yesterday, because we think that we can see some heavier thunderstorms hold on as they exit eastern IL tomorrow morning. That may put some localized areas from Winamac to Terre Haute in line to see the strong thunderstorm action after sunrise tomorrow. The rest of the state and the rest of the day should be a little more calm, but still wet.

Friday should be precipitation free over about 75% of the state, but it’s tough to call the day dry. Clouds will be in over the state in some fashion, and we expect rains to develop over the southern quarter of the state by Friday afternoon. Rains to finish the day from I-70 southward will be less than .25”.

gfs_tprecip_indy_26Saturday and Sunday feature our second system, and this one is by far the biggest. Rains will be with us through the entire period in some way, shape or form. Rain totals continue to be in the 1-3” range, with coverage at 100%. A final push of thunderstorms is likely Monday morning bringing an additional half to 1.5” of rain to the state. That should push 5-day rain totals (Thurs-Mon) to 1”-4”. The map above shows cumulative rain potential through Monday afternoon.

No new precipitation expected next Tuesday, and Wednesday now looks like it could be dry as well.  However, that 2 days of dryness will not promote any kind of conditions suitable for fieldwork anywhere in the state. And, for next Thursday, we have our next wave pushing up from the southwest. Models disagree on track, but for now, we are going to look for scattered showers for next Thursday midday and hold on those chances into Friday. Totals do not look spectacular, but may be .25”-.75, with coverage at 75%. Here is the deal…if we trend drier, the way some models suggest, we might be able to stretch the dry period to 4 days or longer (see below)… if action Thursday and Friday either falls apart, or misses to the south. This will be a major inflection point on the forecast, and a period we need to watch closely.

High pressure looks to start out the extended period, and as such we see only one threat of rain in the 11-16 day forecast window. That chance comes for the 10th-11th with half to 1.5” rain potential over 80% of the state.

So, to summarize the forecast pattern…exceptionally wet from tomorrow through early next week. Then, a potential chance to miss the system for the second half of next week. We really need to…and if so, we may have a window from the 2nd through the 10th for drying. The next couple of model runs will be important to watch. Because if we don’t miss next week’s system, there just will not be time to handle the amount of water of the systems we do see coming in (in other words…we don’t stack up enough consecutive dry days).

Temps look normal to above normal for a good chunk of the period, although we look to be pretty cool and below normal for Monday into Tuesday of next week, behind this weekend’s strong cold frontal passage.

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