Not much change in the forecast this morning. We are bringing our rain threat forward just a bit (about 12-18 hours or so) from our last forecast last week and allowing rain potential over more of the state, but the actual rain threat is not very large at all.
We should see sun and some high clouds today, then as an upper level disturbance pushes across the state this evening and overnight, we have to allow for some minor showers, a few hundredths to a tenth or two over about 50% of the state. This will not be just southern Indiana…this is potential statewide, but chances pretty minor and rain inconsequential, for the most part. Back to dry weather for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure takes control.
The second half of the week is very active. A strong front on Thursday can bring .25”-1”, and then a second wave Friday can bring another .25”-1”. Chances of rain redevelop later Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, and yet another push of moisture later Sunday into early, early Monday. All told, if you put the 4 days together (Thursday through Sunday) we expect .5”-2.5” of rain with 100% coverage through the state. A large part of the state will be from 1”-2”. You may not get rain in your specific area every single time (or you might), but you will get good rains at some point through the 4 day period. The map above shows combined rain totals through Sunday evening.
Dry Monday midday and afternoon into Tuesday, then a minor system arrives next Wednesday (5th) bringing up to .25” over about 50% of the state. The extended window tries to dry out a bit, with our next front waiting until the 8th into the 9th to arrive with .25”-.75” of rain.
Temps will be climbing this week and next week after the rains are done we should see some much warmer air trying to take hold over the state. Temps should be above normal through the upcoming period, a dramatic difference from the past weekend’s temps. With the temps climbing, humidity values will rise as well.