Indiana Weather Outlook 7-11-17

gfs_tprecip_indy_143 more days of rain across the state before we shut the moisture off and change the pattern drier. Today’s focus of the heaviest rain potential will be over central Indiana. We can see .25” to an inch or more depending on where you are at in relation to the bigger thunderstorms. Tomorrow’s daytime rains look more hit and miss, and there may be better dry windows involved, but then overnight tomorrow night through Thursday, we see better rains redeveloping with a final batch of potential strong thunderstorms. All told, from today through Thursday we can see additional rains of .5”-2.5” over about 80% of the state. Today’s rains will be more regional, but statewide rain chances are much better Wednesday night and Thursday. By early Friday morning everything is gone, and we begin to transition to a much drier pattern. The map above shows cumulative rain totals through Thursday evening.

As strong high pressure starts to build in from the west, our forecast remains rain free for Friday through all of next week. Just  stay true to what we mentioned yesterday, we won’t rule out some pop up heat based thunderstorms in there as heat begins to build, but those will be on a very, very isolated basis. An upper level ridge currently over the plains and western Corn Belt will try to expand east through next week.

We still have a minor front in our forecast for the 22nd with scattered light showers as the main threat. Rain totals can be from .1”-.5” with 60% coverage, but we think most of the state that sees rain will be in the .1”-.2” part of the range. That will not be enough to really stave off the dry pattern. Immediately behind the front we return to the warm, dry pattern of the upper level ridge, and this holds through at least the 26th.

At the end of the extended period, around the 26th, we do have a front moving into the NW Corn Belt and stretching back into Nebraska. This would hint at the potential of a front trying to work into the ECB toward the end of the month, maybe around the 28th into the 29th. However, this front will have to strengthen significantly in order to have any serious chance of diminishing the ridge and bringing meaningful precipitation to Indiana.

 

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