Indiana Weather Outlook 7-18-17

gfs_pr6_slp_t850_indy_18The forecast is potentially much drier moving forward over the entire state. Models have shifted the biggest rains for Thursday and Friday farther north, meaning now that we have only a concern for scattered showers over the northern tier counties of Indiana on Thursday, and then on Friday scattered action over east central and northeast Indiana, as the focal point of the best rains shifts farther east into OH. We will not take rain completely out of the forecast but starting to trend our forecasts drier too. For Thursday, we see a few hundredths to no more than a third of an inch of rain over the northern most row of counties in the state, no rain elsewhere. For Friday, scattered showers over east central and northeast Indiana will lead to statewide coverage of no more than 30%, and the rest of the state stays dry. The weekend looks drier as well. We can see some instability showers or thunderstorms pop up, but the energy for such action is farther north into the great lakes, as it looks like a stagnant boundary just sits there. If that solution works out to be true, that will set up for a very warm and very humid weekend and start to next week. The map above is a snapshot of potential action Friday evening – not all that impressive!

Next week still looks dry through Tuesday. However, action for Wednesday has been dramatically reduced. We are not making a complete removal step come into our forecast yet, but will halve our rain totals for midweek to only a quarter inch to 1 inch from I-70 southward. If we continue to see models go dry, eventually we will need to adjust more, but for now we feel that a storm as strong as we were seeing does not just “go away”. The energy is there…and as long as the heat is, it should lead to some action. Then dry the rest of the week.

An upper level high and a moderate ridge keep the extended period dry to start, with not significant moisture through the rest of July. However, a front for August 1 looks stronger this morning, and has the potential to bring .25”-.75” rains to most of the state. This is a long way off, and there is plenty of time to change. In particular, we think that if the next 13 days turn out drier as suggested, that front around the 1st may have trouble making a significant impact. So, we will be watching the pattern develop closely as we go forward.

Temps can be warmer now, if the pattern turns drier. We are still terming this as “above normal, but not excessive”, but now think that lower 90s will be able to be seen over a larger area, if the dryness unfolds. If you take notice this morning, you will see that there are a lot of “ifs” in our discussion. That is due mostly to such the stark change in the forecast models. We do not like to change a forecast so abruptly…and often feel there are some serious model errors that lead to “flip flops” in times like this. So, we are treading cautiously…and if further changes need to be made, we will be all about doing that as more data comes online. For now, think drier, but we may have farther to go.

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