Indiana Weather Outlook 7-31-17

Some significant changes to the forecast this morning, as our longer term dry pattern pretty much went away over the weekend. We still are looking at mostly dry weather in here today, tomorrow and Wednesday but there will be some big-time adjustments to our forecast this morning. Models have come out with significant agreement over the next 10 days, which is odd enough as it is…and to put a major switch to the pattern on top of that – it’s a big deal

Again, for today, tomorrow and Wednesday, the Hoosier state looks pretty good. Strong high pressure over the state today will move off to the east tomorrow and Wednesday and will bring nice, strong south wind flow over the region. That should bump temps up nicely and we will be looking at normal to above normal temps through the first half of the week with a lot of sunshine. That is the nice and easy part of the forecast.

For the second half of this week, we have a strong storm complex that is exiting the northern plains tomorrow moving across the upper Midwest and great lakes Wednesday-Thursday Friday. That strong low will spawn a cold front that rotates through northern IL, Indiana and Ohio for the Thursday-Friday time period. That front will bring a bit of rain to the state Thursday and especially Friday. WE look for rains of anywhere from .1”-.6” over about 60-70% of the state. Even though this moisture is a new addition to our forecast, the coverage is still hit and miss, and we only attain the 60-70% level combining the two days.

Dry for the weekend as high pressure takes control. However, we do see potential for scattered light shower action dipping into the northern third of the state next Monday with a weak upper level disturbance passing by to our north. Moisture totals will be under .25” with coverage at 50% of the northern third of the state, nothing farther south.

gfs_precip_120hr_indy_53 (2)A bigger story for next week is a massive storm complex that moves out of the central plains next Tuesday and brings heavy rains to the SW Corn Belt Wednesday. This will spread north and east and will bring heavy rains to the state likely next Thursday. WE can see rains of 1-2” over nearly 90% of the state. There is plenty of time for this system to shift or modify, but right now, it looks very, very impressive and its track is directly at the state. This will bring a significant rain to all of Indiana’s soybeans, if the system remains on track. The map above shows rain potential for next week.

The rest of the extended period looks wetter as well, as that strong system for next Thursday has several follow up waves that linger across the state. We may add another half to 1.5” of rain for the 11th through the 14th. Finally, around the 15th, we see drier air starting to re-emerge across the state.

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