Indiana Weather Outlook 10-6-17

Another wave of moisture moves over the state today, but we will see the best action stay mostly north. Southern Indiana gets little to no action today. We are putting rain totals today still in a wide range, from .1”-1.0”, but in order to get to the upper end of the range, we will need to see thunderstorms develop. The thunderstorm threat this morning looks significantly lower than 24 hours ago…so most areas should not really test the 1” part of the range today. Rain chances are the best north of US 24, and we see no rains south of I-70.

ecmwf_tprecip_indy_12Saturday starts of dry, but we have one more final sweeping line of showers and thunderstorms that move through late Saturday afternoon through early Sunday. This batch of moisture looks stronger this morning, and will likely have some thunderstorm action to go with it. We will put rain totals at .2”-1.5” over 70% of the state. The best rains will be in central and southern Indiana, while NW Indiana may see nothing. Thunderstorms have the potential to be strong. The map above shows rain totals through Saturday evening.

Model ComboTropical storm Nate could influence weather in parts of the state early next week. The storm will make landfall along the gulf coast sometime Sunday afternoon, and will rip north while curving northeast. As the front that gives us the rain between now and Sunday morning slides off to our southeast, it will act as a nice little superhighway for the storm to move up through the interior. Ohio will feel most of the brunt of this set up, but we won’t rule out some scattered showers and thunderstorms on the NW side of the storms remains, tracking into southern Indiana on Monday. The rains do not look super impressive, but may be able to bring up to half an inch of rain in over southern Indiana. Some models want to bring the moisture much farther north, but we are not going to take that step yet, as the track of the storm as it hits the Gulf coast will play a large role in where the remains go up here. The map of Nate’s potential tracks here suggest we are right to suggest this may not be a big event for the entire state, but rather a glancing blow to the far southeast. It will be a very interesting start to the week for sure.

No matter how the week starts, we look for a mostly dry balance of the week from Tuesday on through Friday. Temps pull back closer to normal and we should see some decent drying for those days. Next weekend is getting just a little bit more interesting. There is a strong system developing over the northern plains late next week. The recent pattern has taken these lows and lifted them to the northeast into Ontario, stretching the fronts back into the central plains. This system tries to do the same, but may not have as much of a northern pull. For now, we are leaving our dry forecast for next weekend alone, but we may have to adjust as we move into early next week. Still, even if we do have to bring some moisture into northern Indiana, 70% of the state looks to stay sunny and dry through the weekend and we will see strong, southwest, warming winds that will really accelerate drying.  So stay tuned on this.

The extended period is getting some better definition this morning and is also getting wetter. We have the aforementioned front and system moving through for the 16th into the 17th bringing .25”-1” over 80% of the state, and then a second strong front around 20th and 21st that can bring another .25”-1.5” of rain over 75% of the state. Those two systems in the extended period can bring two stages of cooler weather in, and we may be looking at some potential first frost temperature levels after the 21st.

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