Indiana Weather Outlook 10-19-17

No change in short term pattern. Dry weather holds through Sunday. Temps move higher each day, winds stay strong. Drying will be very good. In addition, we should see lighter dew each morning going forward, meaning we should be able to be in the field faster.

gfs_tprecip_indy_20.pngOur next front is still on the way for Sunday. It will bring rain totals of half an inch or less to about 80% of the state. The best time frame will be later in the afternoon and through the overnight. Some models continue to suggest a secondary wave of moisture into Monday midday, but we do not like that kind of solution at this time. The models that are showing this have been uncharacteristically flip-floppy on this over the past few days. We think the front is strong enough that it moves through, and will see longer duration action farther off to the east. So, we look for clouds Monday, and an overall damp feel due to cooler air and residual moisture, but no new significant precipitation. The map above shows total precipitation through Monday morning.

We have no new rain in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday either, but with cooler air, northwest flow and plenty of wrap around clouds, we still think that drying will struggle through the first half of next week. Sunshine becomes more dominant the second half of the week, and that will be where we see temps climb, humidity values fall and drying potential increasing.

We stay dry through most of next weekend as well. For the extended period, strong upper level high pressure is making a run as staying over the eastern US, centered over the Mid-Atlantic States. If successful, it will be hard to knock that off with a garden variety front. The front for the end of the month looks like it may run into this strong high, and dissipate off to our west over IL and eastern IA. That means we are looking to stay dry for most of the 11-16 day forecast window at this time. IF the high weakens at all, rains form that front that we have mentioned earlier in the week will be able to move in. But, we put those odds rather low at this time.

Temperatures next week will be closer to normal, but we do not see much below normal air moving in over the rest of the month.

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