Southwest flow dominates the start of this week, precisely the same way we finished last week. These southwest winds will allow temps to climb to above normal levels again. Today’s winds will be brisk at times, but generally not as strong as what we saw over the weekend and what we will see tomorrow. Winds today will average 8-16 miles an hour, and tomorrow we will likely be back in the 12-25 mph range. Still, those winds will be bringing in warmer air for the first half of the week. We stay dry through Wednesday.
Our next front is still on the way for Thursday, although it does not look as strong this morning as it did late last week. We still will be looking for some clouds and some light precipitation, but we are taking moisture totals down this morning from our thoughts last Friday. At this time, we look for a few hundredths to no more than .3”, and that top end of the range will be somewhat limited in geographical coverage. Most of us that see rain will be .15” or less. Coverage of rain will be around 60%, and no more than 70%. This front moves through fairly quick. The map above shows a snapshot of potential action at midday Thursday.
Behind the front, we are back to drier weather to finish the week and for the weekend. Temperatures will be close to normal, which will be cooler than our start here, but still, not bad considering we are flipping the calendar into December. Sunshine should dominate through the weekend.
Next week we have some minor precipitation lifting up from the southwest overnight Monday night through Tuesday. Moisture totals do not look spectacular, and will likely be limited to no more than .2” over 70% of the state. This may end up being more of a spit-sprinkle-drizzle event than anything else, but there is plenty of time for this wave to tap into more moisture as it develops. We swing back dry for a day or two behind that event.
In the extended period, models are divergent on what we can expect. Our gut feeling is that we have at least 1 front around the 8th that brings .25”-.75” over 80% of the state. Then we can have another front late in the period, around the 11th into the 12th that can bring up to .5”. However, we find ourselves in a very dry pattern now, and we think that any front that is successful in bringing moisture back will have to be somewhat strong. When the upper level ridge over the nation’s midsection starts to degrade, that will be when we start to see more active weather moving in. For now, it looks like we still should have a pretty good window for field work.
The Official "weatherstud" Forecast Center 