Indiana Weather Outlook 12-14-15

No change in thought process this morning. We stay cold for a couple of days behind last night’s clipper system, but temperature moderation is on the way for the weekend.

High pressure behind the system keeps us dry today into early tomorrow. Sunshine should be a dominant player over central and southern Indiana, but clouds may hold firmer up north.  West to slightly northwest winds pick up tomorrow around midday and that may bring some lake effect snows back to extreme northern Indiana. However while that is happening, we see warmer air slowly trying to rise into southern Indiana. We may be able to see Friday highs push toward the upper 40s in far southern Indiana. Temps will then continue to moderate statewide Saturday, with only north central and northeast Indiana staying closer to freezing.

Sunday looks wet. Strong south flow ahead of our next weather system takes temperatures up to the point where rain breaks out Sunday morning over southwest Indiana and moves north from there. Rain totals can be from .25”-.50” over about 90% of the state, and the remaining 10% has a chance of pushing closer to .75”.  Models are in disagreement on whether we see a secondary push of moisture after midnight Sunday through midday Monday that can bring a little more liquid. Either way, it will be a nice little batch of rain that will get rid of most snow cover.

Monday midday we go drier behind that system, and we stay dry through Thursday morning. Temperatures moderate through the period, and will be normal to even slightly above normal by midweek next week. Our final front of the 10 day period arrives late next Thursday afternoon into Friday the 22nd. This front again brings mostly rain, as the cold air waits to arrive until after the moisture is gone. We look for a few hundredths to .3” of rain over 70% of the state. That system will be the one that puts the nail in the coffin for a white Christmas, unless cold air can come faster.

Dry r the 23rd into the 24th. Extended models are suggesting a potential late Christmas Eve system that goes through Christmas day. This system does not have as strong of characteristics this morning, but we are not going to remove it from the extended forecast window completely.  If it can survive, and if the air is cold enough, we still may have a chance at a white Christmas…but for now those thoughts have to go on life support.

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