The pattern remains mostly dry, but we do see more clouds invading the picture here over the next few days. Our next good chance of precipitation does not arrive until early next week, but this week will feature several trough passings and pesky cold air.
Today we see clouds slowly build as an upper level trough dips into the region after passing through the great lakes. This trough has very little useable moisture with it, but it will bring clouds and slightly colder air. If we see any precipitation threats it will be later this afternoon through tonight over the northern half of the state. However, moisture availability is limited to a few hundredths of an inch, meaning we can see a sprinkle or flurry later today north of I-70. Our gut feeling is that we see only some clouds. There will be nothing south.
As cold air tightens its grip on the state tomorrow, we have a second wave of minor moisture to deal with. We have to keep an eye out for a few spats of flurries across the state, but look for no accumulation. Clouds will be around through most of the day tomorrow, and temps will be below normal.
We are dry Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with sunshine returning. However, without strong south flow, we think temps will remain on the cooler side, mostly normal to below normal. The weekend looks dry now, with action Saturday staying south of most of the state, just like we saw yesterday. South flow will try and moderate temperatures just a little bit.
A strong low moves into the region next Monday into Tuesday, the 19th into the 20th. We see good rains with this system, and temperatures will be warm enough indeed for all rain. Totals will be from .25” to .75” with coverage at 100%. We dry down Tuesday afternoon and stay dry into the first half of the extended forecast window.
The next chance of well-organized precipitation comes for Sunday the 25th, with a strong low moving from the Oklahoma panhandle up into northern Michigan. This will put us in the strong south flow part of the circulation, meaning temps should rise and we see the threats of .25”-1” rains, including some thunderstorms. Coverage will be nearly 90% of the state. The extended pattern stays active with another system a few days later for Tuesday the 27th. This system has a similar track and can bring .25”-.75” to 80% of the state. The heaviest rains out of that event split, with one tracking north into Michigan, and the other staying south of the Ohio River. Still, it looks like we may finish March on a much more active note.
Temperatures over the next 10 days do not look like anything special…in fact we see mostly a cool bias through this week and weekend, and would expect mostly normal to below normal ranges into this coming weekend. This means we can’t quite seem to kick Old Man Winter out just yet.