Indiana Weather Outlook 3-22-18

Dry and chilly today and tomorrow. However, we should see ore sunshine statewide, and temps may moderate just a touch for tomorrow.

gfs_tprecip_indy_16.pngOur next system moves in overnight Friday night into Saturday. Rain will be with us through the entire day Saturday and can linger through Sunday morning. Rain totals will easily be .25”-1.4” with coverage at 80% of the state. The heavier rains likely fall in southern Indiana and central Indiana, as the rains start first in the south and west, and end there later as well. Think of this as a first one on the bus, last one off the bus” kind of scenario. That will lead to the bigger rains. The map at right shows the set up for this weekend, with combined liquid equivalent precipitation for Friday night through Sunday morning. We say “liquid equivalent” because cold air blasts into the state overnight Saturday night and Sunday morning. That means there is a very real chance that the precipitation will end as some sloppy wet snow. Again the better chances for accumulation will be in central Indiana…where the cold air dominates and yet the liquid hangs on longer. We can see minor accumulations of a coating to an inch over about 40% of the northern half of the state.

Dry for Monday of next week, but then we see a very complicated mess for the Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday time frame. We kick things off with a front for Monday overnight through Tuesday. This event can bring .05”-.5” precipitation to 70% of the state. From there, we see additional chances for showers Tuesday and Wednesday that can bring another few hundredths to few tenths. If you combine all three days together, you end up with .25”-.75” rain totals over about 70% of the state. It will be a wet period, but not overly excessive moisture. Temps climb for Monday on south winds ahead of this mess, but then pull back to near normal and slightly below normal levels for midweek. We shift back to a dry pattern briefly for next Friday.

Easter weekend looks wet still, but we are shifting our storm system back about 12-18 hours. Rains now likely develop Saturday evening, the 31st, and then really ramp up for Easter Sunday, the 1st. This is mostly due to the low splitting, and the first wave pushing farther south and east. This will set up similar to what we saw with the events over the past 24 hours, and a strong storm could move up the coast again. So, with this change in arrival and track, we are pulling our range back to .5”-1.5”, and the upper end of the range may develop over southern Indiana. From there, we are dry for the 2nd through the 4th, and a strong storm complex moves through around the 5th. This front will look to bring rains from .25”-.5”, but may raise the specter of a few thunderstorms as well. Strong high pressure will move in for the 6th forward.

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