Our front is off to the east this morning, but we are dealing with wrap around moisture. This is triggering clouds, cold air, some gusty winds and even a bit of spit/sprinkle activity. We do not expect a lot of new precipitation this today, but the overall cold, damp, cloudy, nasty feel will hold all the way through the day and through tomorrow. The long and short of it is: there is no way we see any kind of “drydown” in the next 48 hours.

The coldest part of this air mass is here tomorrow. If we get clearing soon enough, we have to leave the door open for some patchy frost tomorrow night. We do not think it’s a very big deal at this time. A much bigger frost event is coming for this weekend, and we will touch on that below. But, there is some nice cold air in here later tomorrow afternoon and evening. Sunshine is in for Thursday and Friday.  As winds turn some to the southwest we will see temps moderate slightly. However, it would be wrong to use the word “warming” here, because honestly, this will be nothing more than a bounce off of the peak of cold air from midweek.

Our next front is here on Saturday. It looks a little more impressive this morning, with rain totals ranging from .25”-.75” and coverage at nearly 100%. The rains will cause another slowdown in field work potential (but can you really slow it down, if it never really ramped back up very much?). However, the bigger story will be the cold air coming in behind that front. It is a strong push of cold air from the north and west, and it will likely bring our first good frost of the fall season to a large part of the state. The best chance for the frost will be early Sunday morning and we could see a repeat Monday morning (although the best chance for frost to start next week will be a bit farther off to the east). The map above shows overnight low temps as of 7AM Sunday morning.

We still have a dry forecast for a large part of next week. No new rain in Monday through early Thursday morning. We still see some late week shower potential, but it has advanced forward just a bit, looking more toward Thursday mid to late morning through evening. The may just end up being a precursor to a much larger system for the extended 11-16 day forecast period. Time will tell. For now, we look for at least some clouds next Thursday, and will be open to adding a few scattered showers into our Thursday afternoon forecast if this moisture continues to show the ability to hang around. Totals will be very, very minor.

In the extended period we still have a strong storm complex forming in the plains with significant cold air pressing in from the north and northwest for late the 4^th through the 6^th.  This likely is the first big potential winter storm out there, but here we still like rain. We have action arriving later the afternoon of the 5^th and extending through the 6^th, and we are keeping rain totals at .5”-1” over 80% of the state. This is a system to watch, but for now we are not spending too much time on it until it gets into the 10 day window and we can really start to track its development. There is significant cold air behind it and we maintain our thoughts of a good hard freeze event in its wake.

 

 

No change in short term pattern. Dry weather holds through Sunday. Temps move higher each day, winds stay strong. Drying will be very good. In addition, we should see lighter dew each morning going forward, meaning we should be able to be in the field faster.

Our next front is still on the way for Sunday. It will bring rain totals of half an inch or less to about 80% of the state. The best time frame will be later in the afternoon and through the overnight. Some models continue to suggest a secondary wave of moisture into Monday midday, but we do not like that kind of solution at this time. The models that are showing this have been uncharacteristically flip-floppy on this over the past few days. We think the front is strong enough that it moves through, and will see longer duration action farther off to the east. So, we look for clouds Monday, and an overall damp feel due to cooler air and residual moisture, but no new significant precipitation. The map above shows total precipitation through Monday morning.

We have no new rain in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday either, but with cooler air, northwest flow and plenty of wrap around clouds, we still think that drying will struggle through the first half of next week. Sunshine becomes more dominant the second half of the week, and that will be where we see temps climb, humidity values fall and drying potential increasing.

We stay dry through most of next weekend as well. For the extended period, strong upper level high pressure is making a run as staying over the eastern US, centered over the Mid-Atlantic States. If successful, it will be hard to knock that off with a garden variety front. The front for the end of the month looks like it may run into this strong high, and dissipate off to our west over IL and eastern IA. That means we are looking to stay dry for most of the 11-16 day forecast window at this time. IF the high weakens at all, rains form that front that we have mentioned earlier in the week will be able to move in. But, we put those odds rather low at this time.

Temperatures next week will be closer to normal, but we do not see much below normal air moving in over the rest of the month.

No change in this great weather for the balance of the week and weekend. Dry weather holds through Sunday with slowly climbing temps, strong southwest winds and excellent dry down conditions. Morning dew should be lighter over the next few mornings too, meaning we should be able to be in the field faster.

Our next front is still on the way for Monday. This still is the slower moving front we explained yesterday. Rain totals still look good at .25”-1” over nearly all of the state in our analysis this morning. Some models have swung back to a solution that has a second, stronger wave of moisture coming up as the front encounters the mountains off to the east. We think the moisture is overdone, and we are not convinced that the second wave approach is even right. It is a scenario we are looking closely at, but for now, we will sit with rains up to 1” and have everything done by midnight Monday night. Lingering clouds, poor drying and an overall damp feel will hold through Tuesday and likely Wednesday on the backside of the front, but we are downplaying the threat of addition al rain or strong thunderstorms. Just a heads up, though…you may hear others start to push that thought. The map above shows total precipitation potential through Tuesday morning.

Drier weather is in for the last half of the week and the weekend. In fact, we see strong high pressure building in over the eastern US all the way through the extended period. The high looks impressively strong, and likely erodes the next front moving across the Corn Belt at month-end. Rains fall over IA and IL, but do not make it into IN or OH now. So, we seen increased potential for a completely dry 11-16 day forecast window too, taking us through the first few days of November. If the high in the east weakens, that western front still can make life interesting here and bring some moisture, but the chances seem significantly lower this morning, based on the pattern we see developing after this weekend/early next week front.

Temperatures next week will be closer to normal, but we do not see much below normal air moving in over the rest of the month.

Absolutely no changes to the forecast and the pattern for the rest of this week through Saturday. Sunshine and blue sky will dominate and we will see temps slowly but surely move upward. We will be near normal by midweek (tomorrow) and above normal to finish the week and weekend. Winds kick up late week, and we will see low humidity levels alongside excellent evaporation rates.

Our next front does try and move in on Sunday, but still has very little left in the tank as it arrives. As such, we are leaving our forecast basically alone, except we are dropping our coverage down to about 30% for Sunday. We will stay warm and windy that day.

Next week still looks mostly dry. However, we have one time frame we are watching closely this morning. Some models late yesterday tried to bring a secondary surge of moisture up that old Sunday frontal boundary, bringing in some light rain for Monday afternoon, evening, and into early Tuesday. At this time, we think that is unlikely, and as such, we are leaving our forecast alone. However, if we see some other models jump on the bandwagon, it will be worth another look. So, for now, we are just running with the status quo, and looking for a dry week right on through the start of next weekend.

We do still see a nice strong front for the start of the extended period, for the 29^th. This front may linger into the 30^th and looks potent. IT could bring anywhere from .25”-1” of moisture to about 80% of the state. There will be significantly colder air coming in behind that front.

But, for the rest of this week, we continue to see a significant harvest window opening – wider and wider!!