We may be looking at just 1 significant threat of precipitation out of the next 2 weeks!  It is hard to fathom, especially after stronger thunderstorms made it farther south over the weekend than we anticipated going home Friday. But, still, models are setting us up on a much drier pattern over the Hoosier state. Let’s take a look at the details.

Today, tomorrow and Wednesday will be dry, with much lower humidity settling in over the region. WE should see full sunshine and temps that are above normal, but with a feel that is not as oppressive as what we had to start this past weekend. WE look for west winds to be light through the period.

A good cool front moves in for Thursday, bringing rains around midday to NW Indiana, and then spreading south and southeast through the afternoon, evening and overnight. WE look for rain totals of .25”-.75” over about 90% of the state. Most of the state should miss out on the major thunderstorm chances, but we can see some thunderstorms ramp up in southern third to southern quarter of the state overnight Thursday night into early Friday. Anywhere those stronger storms break out, 1”+ rains may be seen. Still, most of the action is done and gone by mid-morning Friday.

The rest of the week and weekend looks dry with Friday transitioning back to sunshine with temps close to normal. The weekend will be warmer with plenty of sunshine. Then Monday through Wednesday of next week we have additional sunshine and warm air with high pressure sitting right on top of the eastern Corn Belt. Temps continue to be mostly above normal through next week.

The extended period has high pressure remaining in control through next Friday. Our next weak front to watch will be arriving late the 4^th through the first half of Saturday the 5^th. Rain totals do not look overly impressive at this time. However we can see anywhere from a few hundredth to up to half an inch if we are lucky. At this time, we are downplaying this system a bit, as we want to see a stronger front before we call for good rains. If we miss this front, there is nothing for the rest of the period, meaning we have just the 1 threat of rain between now and the 8^th of august. So, a lot rides on that system. Strong upper level high pressure is back in for the 6^th-7^th-8^th to finish the extended window.

This kind of pattern, if it does truly emerge as we think, will lead to complaints in early august of “needing a rain” in many areas, even with the over the top moisture we have received in spots in the past few days.

The forecast is potentially much drier moving forward over the entire state. Models have shifted the biggest rains for Thursday and Friday farther north, meaning now that we have only a concern for scattered showers over the northern tier counties of Indiana on Thursday, and then on Friday scattered action over east central and northeast Indiana, as the focal point of the best rains shifts farther east into OH. We will not take rain completely out of the forecast but starting to trend our forecasts drier too. For Thursday, we see a few hundredths to no more than a third of an inch of rain over the northern most row of counties in the state, no rain elsewhere. For Friday, scattered showers over east central and northeast Indiana will lead to statewide coverage of no more than 30%, and the rest of the state stays dry. The weekend looks drier as well. We can see some instability showers or thunderstorms pop up, but the energy for such action is farther north into the great lakes, as it looks like a stagnant boundary just sits there. If that solution works out to be true, that will set up for a very warm and very humid weekend and start to next week. The map above is a snapshot of potential action Friday evening – not all that impressive!

Next week still looks dry through Tuesday. However, action for Wednesday has been dramatically reduced. We are not making a complete removal step come into our forecast yet, but will halve our rain totals for midweek to only a quarter inch to 1 inch from I-70 southward. If we continue to see models go dry, eventually we will need to adjust more, but for now we feel that a storm as strong as we were seeing does not just “go away”. The energy is there…and as long as the heat is, it should lead to some action. Then dry the rest of the week.

An upper level high and a moderate ridge keep the extended period dry to start, with not significant moisture through the rest of July. However, a front for August 1 looks stronger this morning, and has the potential to bring .25”-.75” rains to most of the state. This is a long way off, and there is plenty of time to change. In particular, we think that if the next 13 days turn out drier as suggested, that front around the 1^st may have trouble making a significant impact. So, we will be watching the pattern develop closely as we go forward.

Temps can be warmer now, if the pattern turns drier. We are still terming this as “above normal, but not excessive”, but now think that lower 90s will be able to be seen over a larger area, if the dryness unfolds. If you take notice this morning, you will see that there are a lot of “ifs” in our discussion. That is due mostly to such the stark change in the forecast models. We do not like to change a forecast so abruptly…and often feel there are some serious model errors that lead to “flip flops” in times like this. So, we are treading cautiously…and if further changes need to be made, we will be all about doing that as more data comes online. For now, think drier, but we may have farther to go.

A mostly dry start to the week this week, with no serious precipitation action until Thursday up north, and then over more of the state on Friday. The stagnant remains of an old frontal boundary over central Indiana lit up a few showers and thunderstorms yesterday, and we won’t completely rule that out today either. But, in general, we are looking for fairly nice, dry weather over the next 3 days. Temps will be climbing through midweek.

Thursday, we have some moisture moving into the northern third of the state, an offshoot of a frontal complex that is more bent on hitting MI and the great lakes region. This will trigger rain totals of a few hundredths to perhaps .3” over areas from US 24 northward, and in far NW Indiana, we can see some rains over half an inch early on Thursday in southern Lake and southern Porter counties. The rest of the state stays dry. On Friday, a slow, sagging trough moves through the rest of the state, bringing rain totals of .1”-.5” with coverage at 50%. These rains will leave a lot of areas wanting for more.

The weekend shows an active precipitation track, mostly over the northern half to third of the state through Saturday and most of Sunday. Areas north of I-70 can see rain totals of a few hundredths to half an inch over both days combined with coverage at no better than 60%. Southern Indiana continues with no significant ran chances. Temps remain above normal.

We dry down again for next week, with no significant rain chances anywhere in Indiana for Monday through Wednesday. In the extended window, we do have a weak front moving in around the 28^th with some potential rain totals up to half an inch and coverage at 60%, but the rest of the 11-16 day forecast period is dry, with temps above normal. While we still do not see what we would term “oppressive” heat building in, we do think that all of the coming 2 weeks will be above normal to some scale, and highs from the mid-80s to low 90s will be pretty much expected for most of the rest of the month…beginning with our slow build this week.

 

A good chunk of the state may miss out on moisture today, but the extreme northern part of Indiana will probably not be so lucky. We have a strong system passing by to the north today over the great lakes, and some of that moisture is pushing down into northern Indiana. The biggest and heaviest rains are in MI this morning, but we have to keep an eye out for thunderstorms in Indiana, mostly north of US 30. Some of these storms can be strong. The good news is that everything should be gone by mid to late morning. But, we can see rain totals along and north of US 30 of .25”-1” or more, with strong and severe thunderstorm potential, and some localized flooding. The rest of the state stays dry today and we will get very, very warm through the day. Actual air temps may only make it to the upper 80s and low 90s (depending on where you are), but the humidity will make heat indexes move dramatically higher than that. Be aware. And we do not think thunderstorms cool us off any this afternoon.

Rain and thunderstorm action is back in the forecast for the overnight tonight and through the day tomorrow. Heavy rains are likely as we start the day tomorrow over northern Indiana, but rains can happen pretty much across the state through Thursday. Rain totals will be from .25”-1.5” with coverage at around 60% of the state. WE may see slightly better coverage than that, but call us pessimistic this morning. J Thursday looks damp in many locations.

Dry weather is on the way for the rest of the period, however. Friday will be a transition in many areas, with lingering showers over extreme southeastern Indiana to start the day, clouds giving way to sun elsewhere. Then, high pressure takes full control for the weekend and holds through next week. Temps will climb and we see mostly rain free weather through the period. A warm front dragging through the state Monday morning may trigger a few pop up showers or thunderstorms in northeast parts of the state, but we do not feel the threat is strong enough to warrant a mention in our forecast this morning. We like the dry pattern through the week. AS heat builds, pop up heat based thunderstorms may become more of a story line later in the week. Friday looks like it may be a day of interest in that regard, but again, there is nothing that looks significant across a large part of the state.

The extended window still hints at a weak front around the 22^nd, with a few hundredths to no more than half an inch of rain over 60% of the state. Then we find ourselves back under the control of the upper level ridge through the remainder of the extended window, right on through the 28^th. Now, models are suggesting there is a higher chance of moisture getting trapped under the ridge, coming off the gulf during the extended time frame. That leads us to increase our chances of pop up thunderstorms in the extended forecast. But still, at this time, coverage looks hit and miss at best, and we would be best served to plan on a longer term dry push. If next week turns out as dry as we think…it may end up being more difficult to get pop up action going the following week, because the atmosphere will be fairly dry.