We work through our last nice, dry day for a while today. Off to the west a strong frontal boundary is gearing up to tear across the Corn Belt. This front impacts the Hoosier state tomorrow, and may start after midnight tonight. Rains are likely going to be from .5”-1.25”, which is a slight increase from yesterday, because we think that we can see some heavier thunderstorms hold on as they exit eastern IL tomorrow morning. That may put some localized areas from Winamac to Terre Haute in line to see the strong thunderstorm action after sunrise tomorrow. The rest of the state and the rest of the day should be a little more calm, but still wet.

Friday should be precipitation free over about 75% of the state, but it’s tough to call the day dry. Clouds will be in over the state in some fashion, and we expect rains to develop over the southern quarter of the state by Friday afternoon. Rains to finish the day from I-70 southward will be less than .25”.

Saturday and Sunday feature our second system, and this one is by far the biggest. Rains will be with us through the entire period in some way, shape or form. Rain totals continue to be in the 1-3” range, with coverage at 100%. A final push of thunderstorms is likely Monday morning bringing an additional half to 1.5” of rain to the state. That should push 5-day rain totals (Thurs-Mon) to 1”-4”. The map above shows cumulative rain potential through Monday afternoon.

No new precipitation expected next Tuesday, and Wednesday now looks like it could be dry as well.  However, that 2 days of dryness will not promote any kind of conditions suitable for fieldwork anywhere in the state. And, for next Thursday, we have our next wave pushing up from the southwest. Models disagree on track, but for now, we are going to look for scattered showers for next Thursday midday and hold on those chances into Friday. Totals do not look spectacular, but may be .25”-.75, with coverage at 75%. Here is the deal…if we trend drier, the way some models suggest, we might be able to stretch the dry period to 4 days or longer (see below)… if action Thursday and Friday either falls apart, or misses to the south. This will be a major inflection point on the forecast, and a period we need to watch closely.

High pressure looks to start out the extended period, and as such we see only one threat of rain in the 11-16 day forecast window. That chance comes for the 10^th-11^th with half to 1.5” rain potential over 80% of the state.

So, to summarize the forecast pattern…exceptionally wet from tomorrow through early next week. Then, a potential chance to miss the system for the second half of next week. We really need to…and if so, we may have a window from the 2^nd through the 10^th for drying. The next couple of model runs will be important to watch. Because if we don’t miss next week’s system, there just will not be time to handle the amount of water of the systems we do see coming in (in other words…we don’t stack up enough consecutive dry days).

Temps look normal to above normal for a good chunk of the period, although we look to be pretty cool and below normal for Monday into Tuesday of next week, behind this weekend’s strong cold frontal passage.

We have gotten lucky in the Hoosier state! After a weekend that saw our potential rain event move farther south, we are going to continue to see dry weather through Wednesday! Temps will be climbing and this should promote good drying and excellent field work chances over the state.

Our first chance of rain this week hits Wednesday night and Thursday. Rains move through, but are not too impressive at this point. We like showers at .25”-.75” rates for the Wednesday night-Thursday period, with coverage at 80%. A second wave of showers may threaten southern Indiana Thursday night, but at this point we think that batch may miss to the south…time will tell.

However, our good luck comes to an end this weekend and early next week. A powerful front sweeps through the state Saturday with 1-2” rains and coverage at 100%. Lingering showers pop up on Sunday. Then a second strong front hits for Monday the 1^st bringing .5”1.5” rains and coverage at 80%. So…over the span of 3 days we can see 1-3” of rain over most of the state, and in the span of 5 days (to include this first system this Thursday) that total pushes to likely 1.5”-4”. Stronger thunderstorms sitting over the same area could even bump that range. In any case, that will slow field work down in a hurry! But…if you need a silver lining…look at it this way…at least we are not in central IL. The map above shows potential rain totals through next Monday. Notice some areas of IL are between 6” and 8”???

We should be dry next Tuesday FWIW…but another minor wave is on the way for next Wednesday, the 3^rd, starting mostly in the afternoon. That wave could bring another .25”-.5” with 60% coverage.

In the extended window, another system is likely around the 6^th with up to half an inch of moisture, and another closer to the 10^th. So…go as hard as you can as fast as you can the next several days…it’s a gift!

 

 

A cold front works its way through the state from NW to SE today, and will be responsible for the development of scattered showers. Rain totals are likely in the .1”-.5” range with coverage at 75% of the state. We have to keep an eye out for a few thunderstorms this morning in NE Indiana, but in general, this frontal passage will be storm free. The map above shows a snapshot of potential frontal positioning and rains as of early this evening.

Dry over a good chunk of the state for Friday, although action does start to build back in over southern Indiana later tomorrow afternoon. Rains coming with a large system out of the central plains will be in for late Friday through the weekend. These rains look most impressive from I-70 southward where we can see easily .5”-1.5” and some thunderstorm development from Friday night through Sunday midday. North of I-70 chances are significantly lower. WE might see some lighter rains up to US 24, but they will be under a quarter of an inch for the most part. North of US 24, there will not be too much precipitation this weekend, at least the way the system is tracking right.

Dry weather remains on track to be in for Monday through Thursday of next week. Some models are trying to increase cloud cover or Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, triggering a few scattered showers, but we think that is likely overdone. WE like the dry period through the first 4 days of the week. That changes later for Friday, though, as a strong front is on the way in again. This front brings rains for late the 28^th through the 30^th and we still think it has the potential for .25”-1” rain totals and 80% coverage.

In the extended period, we like a minor front for the 3^rd-4^th of May, but in general, a less active period that should allow for better field work potential.

 

 

Another dry day today as we start to see south flow come back into the state. This will allow temps to warm slightly through the day.

Our next system continues to look less impressive for tomorrow and Thursday. At this point, we think there is a fairly decent chance we escape tomorrow with very little moisture – a few hundredths of an inch to perhaps a tenth or so. This will happen if the initial wave of moisture coming out of the northern plains today is less impressive, and more importantly, stays north of I-90 as it tracks east. Northern counties will be best situated to see scattered showers, but a large part of the state just sees clouds through tomorrow. Thursday we likely will not be so lucky, and a cold front will sweep through the state, bringing about 75-80% coverage of rain. However, rain totals still are not stunning. WE think we can see .25”-.75” rains, with most of the state closer to the lower end of the range. We allow for some .75” totals because of a concern about thunderstorms later Thursday afternoon in southern Indiana.

Dry for all of Friday over northern Indiana, but only for Friday morning in southern Indiana as our next batch of showers starts to lift into southwest parts of the state Friday afternoon. For the weekend we still are on track to see some significant moisture, with rains of half to 1.5” over 90% of the state. There is potential for some heavy thunderstorm action Saturday afternoon and Saturday night over the heart of the state, and severe weather cannot be ruled out. Rains likely linger in some light and scattered form through the day Sunday. The map above shows total rain through Sunday evening. This does include action from tomorrow and Thursday with it…but a large part of these totals come from our weekend event.

Better news for next week. WE see dry weather for Monday through Thursday. Evaporation rates should be good and promote good drying after the heavy weekend rains. It likely won’t be quite enough to spur field work, but we should at least be able to get back to square zero.

However – next week probably finishes wet. In the extended 11-16 day window we see a strong cold front sweeping in out of the plains, bringing .25”-1” rains with 80% coverage for the 28^th-30^th. Then, farther out in the extended period, a second front tries to exit the plains and upper Midwest for late the 3^rd into the 4^th, and it may have similar rain totals.

So, while field work was able to start in some areas yesterday (I saw it myself!!) anything that does not get in before the end of tomorrow likely will have to wait…perhaps a couple of weeks.