Only scattered showers over the state today as we transition to the backside of the low pressure circulation moving through. In fact, that low is leaving NE Indiana this morning. Wrap around moisture will be more hit and miss through the day, and will total no more than a few hundredths to a tenth or two, maybe a quarter of an inch in spots. There may be some brightening at times, but clouds are mostly in control today

 

Sunshine is back for the start of the weekend, and we should be dry for the entire weekend. Clouds start to build on Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of our next system.

 

Scattered showers start Monday morning and build in intensity and frequency through Monday afternoon and overnight. Heavy thunderstorms are likely south of the river, but we don’t really have much concern about heavy weather anywhere except extreme southeast Indiana. We like rain totals Monday into early Tuesday of a few hundredths to half an inch, coverage around 60%. Then, we have a second wave for later Tuesday through Wednesday that passes more to the north and west. This will bring .25”-.5” rains in over the state from I-70 northward, but will really not do much from I-70 southward. Overall, the first half of the week looks damp, with combined rain totals of .25”-.75” and coverage at 75% of the state.

 

Drier for the later part of the week, although we are suspicious of clouds through the day Thursday and think there could be some spits and sprinkles over about 60% of the state through the day. IT will not be a bright and sunny Thursday, but we expect clouds to break up more for Friday although spits and sprinkles may still frustrate us in spots.

 

For next weekend we are dry both Saturday and Sunday, but there are signs staring to show that we do have a cool push of air to start the weekend. There is potential for temps to dip back toward freezing next Saturday morning, which is something we will watch. Daytime highs still look to be above normal, and that may mitigate any cold push, but it still is an interesting development. In the extended window, we have a strong front looking to arrive around the 10^th into the 11^th, and another front closer to the 15^th, each capable of bringing up to half an inch or rain.

 

While our overall forecast for the next 10 days to 2 weeks is slightly less wet in terms of precipitation falling, we are looking for cloudier periods in-between wave, and some additional pesky spit/sprinkle/scattered shower action that ultimately leads to a set up where evaporation is limited somewhat. What we are meaning is – even though we may not see quite as much rain as we feared in the period ahead a few days ago, we are not looking at a major drying push either…our soil profile still looks to be nearly full as we move through the first half of April.

 

Keep the umbrella handy today and tomorrow as rains move over the state. Rains today will be more steady and have higher totals ahead of the low pressure circulation. Tomorrow, action will be more hit and miss as we get into the wrap around precipitation. We are leaving rain totals alone at .25”-1” with coverage at 90% of the state. The map shows total precipitation through midnight Friday night. 

 

We should have a nice weekend with sunshine in for most of Saturday. Clouds will build through Sunday, especially in the afternoon and evening. We probably do get through the weekend, however, with no serious rain threat. Rains look to develop a little later Monday.

 

We are still looking for rain from Monday midday or early afternoon into early Tuesday. Monday morning we won’t rule out spits and sprinkles, but really do not see a lot of organization before then. WE look for rain totals still in the .25”-1” range with coverage at 60% of the state. There should be a break in the action from later Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon. Then models bring a second wave in for later Wednesday through Thursday. This is a solution much like was being seen 2 days ago. Models flip flopped a bit yesterday morning and are now back on the Thursday bandwagon. Confidence is building in that scenario. The second wave would bring another .25”-.75” of rain to about 70% of the region.

 

We should be dry to finish the week then for Friday into earl Saturday. WE may even squeeze out a dry finish to the weekend. But, a strong storm is lurking to the west, and we think there is potential for half to 1.5”rain totals as we start the week of the 10^th, and then a second system closer to the 12^th-13^th.

 

Basically, our active pattern is still intact and we are talking about the same number of systems moving through over the next 15 days. We are just looking at adjusting timing slightly this morning on systems at midweek next week and subsequent systems as we finish the 10 day period and move into the extended window. Temps remain above normal through the period, for the most part. WE will average 5-10 degrees above normal for the upcoming 2 weeks.

 

Dry today over the state, but we will see a return to damp weather starting overnight tonight. Clouds will be thickening up later this afternoon and tonight, and rain from our next system starts to move into the state after midnight. This rain will initially come into northwest and north central Indiana, but will spread south and east. The rains tomorrow will be in advance of the low in south flow, and then the low tracks over the state for Friday, and we see wrap around, backside moisture. That means the heavier precipitation will be in for tomorrow, and lighter, more hit and miss action for Friday. Still, all told, we look for 2 day rain totals to be from .25”-1” with coverage at 80% of the state. We do not see a significant thunderstorm threat this time around.

 

The weekend still looks dry. Sun will be in for a good chunk of Saturday, and then clouds start to build on Sunday. Temps will be normal to above normal.

 

Next week, we have a strong system for Monday and Tuesday with rain totals of .25”-1” with coverage again at 80% of the state. The rains start in southern Indiana midday Monday and move through from there. Then, we have s second wave of action in for Wednesday that can add another .25”-.5” of rain over about 60% of the state. However, that Wednesday system has pulled energy from a system for later next week, and that means we may end up with a drier period for next Thursday into early Friday.

 

Still, by late Friday and into Saturday (4/8) we have a strong low pressure center working out of the central plains and into the Hoosier state. We are keeping rain totals at .5”-1.5” with coverage at nearly 100%, even though we are knocking this system back half a day to a day or so. WE still think that severe weather is a good bet here.

 

We are pushing our system later in the extended period back a day, with better arrival on the 12^th. This system also look stronger, and may have a chance at heavier rains, and stronger storms.

Our active pattern continues across the state, but we have a few tweaks to the precipitation outlook this morning. Timing is a little sooner on our next system this week, and precipitation may not be quite as heavy early next week from our system there. However, we have two more showing up in the extended period, and with their current strength and scope…we think we are looking at a very wet start to the 2017 planting season over the state.

Let’s start nearby. We are dealing with a few lingering showers, spits and sprinkles early this morning as a little wave of moisture exits to the east. This wave brought the moisture in late yesterday afternoon and promoted a very scattered batch of rain. WE should dry out later today and sun should break through. That dry period extends through tomorrow, although clouds likely start to develop later tomorrow afternoon. Temps should be normal to above normal over the state.

As clouds build tomorrow night, we will see rain start to push in over NW Indiana after midnight and into Thursday morning. That rain develops and spreads south and east, and the rain will continue through Friday. That start is about 12-18 hours sooner than our earlier forecasts, but it should be out of here by sunset Friday night, so we really do not see any extension on the duration of the event. Rain totals will be from .25”-1” with coverage at 80% of the state. The remaining 20% likely sees rain, but may have trouble getting up to that .25” lower threshold. The map above shows rain totals through Friday night. These may be a little overzealous, but not by an exceptional margin.

Dry for the weekend! WE should see sunshine return for Saturday and most of Sunday with temps still normal to above. In fact, we see no major cold air outbreaks over the coming 2 weeks, so any concern about “cold” should be non-existent. Clouds start to thicken up some later Sunday afternoon.

Our next front moves in Monday and rain slowly works across the area through Wednesday morning. This will be a slow progressing system. Rains start in southern Indiana, mostly south of I-70, but will expand Monday afternoon to include most of the state. Two-and-a-half-day rain totals will be from .25”-1” with coverage again at 80% of the state. If you have been watching our forecasts, you will know that this is a decrease in total precipitation for this event by a significant factor.  However, this still will be ample rain drawn out over the period, and basically just reduces threat of flooding we had feared. This is a slightly smaller coverage area too.

The forecast gets a little dicey for the second half of next week. We look for a dry finish to Wednesday, but Thursday may be up in the air a bit. One model suggests another quick moving front sweeping through for Thursday the 6^th, while the other keeps Thursday dry. Stay tuned. Our thoughts are that the pattern we find ourselves in is one of 24-48 hour breaks in-between systems, and that flow pattern likely holds…but time will tell. In any case, we have a strong low with plenty of severe weather potential in the early part of the extended period, around the 7^th into the 8^th. Rain totals can easily be form .5”-1.5” with coverage at nearly 100%. Severe weather looks to be a good bet here.

Finally, toward the end of the 16-day window we have another front and low pressure circulation arriving around the 11^th with .25”-.75” rain potential over 80% of the state.

So, for those keeping track at home, that means between now and April 12^th, we have the potential for 4, and maybe 5 systems over the state bringing a total of roughly 1-5 inches of rain. That is one soggy forecast. And, if the rains were not interesting enough…remember, we have no more than a day or two of dryness in-between systems either. This means, with an overall damp feel, we will not be evaporating out much of the moisture that falls between now and mid-April. Given the rains of this past weekend and last night…you can be assured that only a lucky few, on mostly sand soils will be playing in the dirt before mid-April…and even those few might be tempting fate!