A damp Friday underway, as moisture moved into the state overnight from the west. The most interesting spot in the state this morning is in north central and northeast Indiana, as warming winds have not quite gotten there yet. A such, we are seeing a cold layer of air near the surface, while warming has happened a little sooner around 4000 to 5000 feet. So, we are seeing some snow and even a bit of sleet and freezing rain potential this morning, especially in the northeast corner of the state. Snow may accumulate up to a couple of inches there, but not really anywhere else. Rains today should bring a cumulative total of .1”-.5” over 80-90% of the state. Dry air should move in fairly quickly overnight, but clouds may not completely dissipate. With a dry weekend, we expect a mix of clouds and sun Saturday, mostly sunny skies for Sunday. Temps will be nearly normal Saturday, above normal and rather pleasant Sunday. The first map above shows total precipitation through tomorrow morning, and the second map show potential snowfall this morning through 1PM.

Scattered showers move into the state Monday, and then better organized rains surge through with a second wave Monday night into early Tuesday over southern Indiana. Rain totals for the entire event will be from .1” up to nearly 1 inch, although the half to 1 inch totals will be from I-70 southward, buoyed by that strong second wave of action Monday night. The thunderstorm threat looks lower for that period as we see it right now. Coverage of rain reaches 100% of the area from I-70 south, but only about 30-40% of areas north of I-70, with significantly lower rain totals.

Dry for the balance of Tuesday through early Thursday morning as a nice high pressure dome slides through. Cooler air is likely Tuesday as the leading edge comes in, but warming temps for Wednesday and Thursday. In general, we do not look for anything significantly below normal in this period.

Our next system looks to arrive midday next Thursday and then progresses through the state through Friday and we may even see some lingering moisture Saturday morning. This should be a rather moisture laden system, and rain totals can be from .25”-1”. Heavy thunderstorms can develop with the cold front late Friday as well, but for right now, they look to stay mostly just south of the OH river, and the heaviest rains may stay there too. It is still early, so if there is anything in particular we are watching in this event, it will be a shifting of that heaviest rain band northward along with thunderstorms.

We return to dry weather for later next Saturday through Sunday with nearly normal temps. In the extended window we continue to see a very active pattern, but at least this morning there seems to be a bit of a break in between major systems. We still have our first big system coming in for the 27^th and 28^th with potential rain totals of .25”-.75” and 80% coverage. A stronger system shows up closer to the turn of the month, around the 31^st through the 1^st. This system looks massive right now, with rain totals of .75”-1.5” and 100% coverage. This system also fits the mold of a classic strong thunderstorm maker as well. No matter how it plays out, we expect plenty of action for the last half to third of the month, a soil profile with ample moisture in it moving into planting season, and warmer than normal temps to start off next month

 

No significant changes this morning to the overall forecast pattern. Winds are starting to turn more to the south today and we should see temps moderate quite a bit over yesterday’s deep chill. Sunshine will be a big player statewide today. We should see south flow all day ahead of our next frontal boundary that brings liquid back to the state for tomorrow. We like rain totals of .25”-.5” with coverage at nearly 60%. That coverage is slightly lower this morning than our forecast 24 hours ago. That is a factor of the precipitation range. The 40% covers areas that are under .25” of precipitation…and if you put coverage of just any precipitation at all…we would likely be up toward 90% or even full coverage over the state tomorrow. But…the better rain totals will be somewhat more limited as things look this morning. Our concern about precipitation starting as snow is lower at this time is nearly non-existent, but in far northeast Indiana and east central areas, perhaps we can see a few snowflakes early tomorrow morning. It will not be a big deal. Above is a map of total precipitation for the event tomorrow through midnight.

We still look for a dry weekend with sunshine and nearly normal temps. However, moisture and clouds come back quicker, and we have to allow for at least a little bit of scattered action Monday, even though the bigger rains happen Monday night through Tuesday.  We are looking for rain totals of .25”-1”, with 70% coverage. Again, more of the state will likely see rain, but it will, be under a quarter of an inch. And, the heavier rains, from half to 1 inch, will stay south of I-70. Southern Indiana is where we expect some potential thunderstorm action to start off Tuesday.

High pressure moves in quickly for next Wednesday but shoots out just as quickly. Another cold front replaces it for next Thursday and Friday. The moisture is scattered and pretty light for Thursday and then picks up in intensity as we get closer to the front Friday. However, the action probably lingers through Friday overnight into early Saturday before the cold front finally exits, and there can be a line or two of stronger thunderstorms that actually setup along the front. Combined rain totals over the 60 hour period will be from .25”-1.25” with coverage at 75%. The best rains come from Friday midday through Saturday morning.

The extended pattern has developed into a very, very active period with our next front showing up around the 27^th, and then constant waves of rain and thunderstorm action can move through daily from the 27^th through the 31^st. Liquid potential looks impressive, and we could see 5 day rain totals of up to 2 inches or more, state wide. This may be one of those years where March came in like a lion, and left as an even more ticked off lion!

Strong north winds hold over the state today, and that will trigger some lake enhanced snow over northwest and north central Indiana through at least midday. WE do not see the snow making it far to the south, but resultant clouds will be in from time to time over the northern half of the state. Still, we should see sunshine at least on par with what we saw yesterday. Temps remain mostly below normal through the day, similar to yesterday as well.

Winds start to turn more to the south as we move into tomorrow, and that will allow temps to begin to moderate. These south winds also will be in ahead of a fairly significant frontal boundary that brings liquid back to the state for Friday. We like rain totals for Friday of .25”-.5” with coverage at nearly 80%. Our concern about precipitation starting as snow is lower at this time, as most of the precipitation starts a little later Friday morning, and then going through the entire day. The map shows total precipitation for the system through Friday evening.

Dry for the weekend through Monday late afternoon. Temps get back closer to normal, but we are less optimistic of chances to be above normal in that period, as we will sit in between storm systems in a mostly zonal flow pattern. Sunshine should be a large player through the period, however, leading to a better feel than for this week.

Scattered showers come in for Monday late afternoon and evening and go through Tuesday afternoon. The action remains mostly scattered through the period but should end up giving a coverage area of 60% with rain totals of .25”-1”. However, that 1” total will only come about with stronger thunderstorms that may develop Tuesday over the southern third of the state. This system is not inspiring a lot of confidence at the moment, and may develop further or deteriorate between now and its arrival.

Quick moving high pressure is in for next Wednesday, but then another strong front quickly moves in for next Thursday into Friday. This system comes out of the central plains and has the potential to trigger significant moisture for the end of next week. Right now we will put rain totals at half to 1” combined over the 2-day period, but it could be more, if the system slows in its progression. WE are looking at all liquid precipitation, with no snow threat, at the moment. The cold air looks to push farther north on the latest model runs. However, this is the one part of the forecast that we need to watch closely.

The extended period has another front in the extended period with half to 1” rain potential, and temps moving back to normal and above normal levels as we finish the month.

 

INDIANA WEATHER OUTLOOK

Snow today will get everyone’s attention. Cutting to the chase: We look for snow accumulations today of 1-4” from I-70 northward. South of I-70, we see potential for a coating to an inch. The farther south you go, the less the chance of snow. Coverage of precipitation today will be 80% of the state. The cold air that has come in as of late has made the ground cold enough to support the accumulations. Snow will be with us through the entire day today, through tonight and will end tomorrow. The steady snow ends by shortly after sunrise tomorrow, but we see lingering on and off snow and flurries possible through the entire day tomorrow. Travel will likely be a little difficult today, especially over central Indiana, where dealing with a late season snow always triggers more anxiety. The map above shows potential snow accumulation through sunrise tomorrow morning.

Cold air holds through at least midweek. We see a shift in wind for the later part of the week and the south flow will moderate temps somewhat. However, we likely will not push to above normal temps until sometime this weekend. Our next weather system moves in for Friday. We can start the day with some light snow over the northern half of the state as temps will be below freezing. However, the moderating air will switch all precipitation to rain by shortly after sunrise. WE look for rains of .25” to .5” over about 80% of the state. Action should be done by midnight Friday night.

The weekend will feature clouds and some sun, and temps will continue to moderate. WE look for temps above normal by Saturday afternoon.

Next week, we have a system that sags slowly across the state from NW to SE for Monday night through Tuesday. This system does not have nearly as much moisture and coverage as the previous two. WE like rains of a few hundredths to perhaps .4” with coverage at no better than 60%. Our bias will be toward less moisture too, unless this system is able to find a better moisture source. Following that, we are mostly dry for the rest of the week.

In the extended window, we are still watching a potential frontal passage around the 24^th into the 25^th with rains that can be from .25”-.75”. But, most of the attention today will be paid to the snow that is flying over a large part of the state. Be careful!