Corn Belt weather:

• Strong high pressure has moved off to the south and east and strong south winds are moving into the Corn Belt, allowing temps to rise dramatically.
• It’s a major warmup, with yesterday’s highs in the teens to 30’s, while today’s highs will be in the 40’s-50’s, with some 60-degree weather possible depending on location.
• The serious warmup will hold into Saturday morning with no major weather issues moving in until tomorrow afternoon in the west and Sunday in the east.
• Low pressure will start in ND and moves into northern MN, moving south/southeast with the front dragging through the western Corn Belt, and that’s where the moisture develops.
• The best moisture totals hold off until Sunday/Sunday night, when the front is over southern IL, IN, and OH, but still totals only .03-.2” of moisture in IN and OH.
• The rest of next week in the Corn Belt looks calm and tranquil with no major weather issues.
• The only real activity might be a clipper system that moves from northern MN, through WI, and into MI next Wednesday, but it doesn’t have a direct impact on the Corn Belt.
• The next big weather system that directly impacts the Corn Belt may hold off until Feb 20-21, with moisture coming together in southern MN and western IA and bringing good moisture totals on the 22-23 as temps will be above normal to start and potentially pull down behind it.
• Temps are the main story, especially in the short term, but still above normal through next week.

 

Deep South weather:

• High pressure is moving away today-tomorrow, and keeps most of the region dry yet, with the potential for widely scattered showers in the western and northern parts of the region Saturday night-Sunday, but only totaling .03-.1” maximum and 30% coverage across LA, AR, MS, western TN, and KY.
• High pressure is back Monday-Tuesday, but at the same time there is a serious collection of moisture developing in TX and OK, and will move east into the region Tuesday night-Wednesday.
• Strong low pressure circulation moves across southern LA and over the southern half of the Deep South Wednesday-early Thursday, picking up moisture off the Gulf.
• Rainfall will total .25-1.5” with the heaviest rains in MS, LA, and AR, with the lower end of the range from AL eastward.
• That low moves up the east coast, bringing moisture to NC, SC, and VA, before it turns into a massive snowmaker in parts of New England.
• Cold air will dive south after the system moves out, reaching down to Atlanta, Columbia, and close to Montgomery, AL.
• The pattern is mostly dry at the end of next week.
• The next round of precipitation to watch for is on Feb 21-22 as moisture comes together in east TX.
• Temps are above normal in the short term, but next week will be a roller coaster, going normal to slightly below as that moisture moves through, and then the cold air incursion as it moves away, followed by strong south winds that bring temps right back up again.

 

Great Plains weather:

• Gusty south winds are shooting temps well above normal today, with 80s possible in KS, OK, and the TX panhandle, with temps well above normal all the way into ND and SD, where they’ll see highs near 45 degrees in ND.
• A frontal boundary will be trying to move through over the weekend but it doesn’t do a whole lot except bring temps back closer to normal by Sunday.
• The moisture they may see in CO, NM, TX, OK panhandle, southwest KS, will be very minor on Sunday, totaling .03-.15” maximum with 30% coverage in the plains.
• A strong Canadian high pressure dome pushing into the northern and central plains on Sunday night-Monday, taking temps back down, but then temps rebound quickly, as temps are back near normal for the rest of the week.
• From the KS/OK border northward, we see no precipitation all week, with sunny and dry weather.
• There will be a significant batch of rain coming together in NM, TX, and OK, on Monday-Tuesday, bringing .5-1.5” totals to the southern plains before moving into the Deep South.
• TX and OK begin to dry out Wednesday-Friday of next week after the moisture moves away.
• The next big weather system develops out west around Feb 20-21, with moisture coming together around a low in CO; time will tell, but the third week of Feb could get more active.

High pressure is off to our south and east this morning. That means circulation around the high has turned to the south and southwest. Warmer air should start to build into the region today. Winds may be a little strong at times, averaging 12-25 mph across the state. However, temps should climb a good 15-20 degrees by this afternoon over yesterday. Tomorrow we add another 10 degrees. Sunshine should dominate all through today and tomorrow as well.

Clouds build tomorrow late afternoon and evening, and we see minor moisture lift into the state starting closer to midnight Saturday night. That shower action continues Sunday morning and lingers through mid to late afternoon. Moisture totals do not look to be as significant this morning as earlier this week. Right now we are scaling our moisture expectations back to 0.05” to .3” with coverage at 75%. By Sunday evening, most of the action is already gone.

Cooler high pressure follows that system in for the start of next week. Temps on Monday will be back to normal or a bit below, and we do not expect as quick of a rebound for Tuesday. The most recent models suggest a weak clipper like system sweeping through the great lakes Wednesday afternoon, and it may try to drag a little bit of rain and clouds down into the northern third of the state. However, this track is very much still up in the air, and for now we like a more northern solution, which would keep us dry at midweek. Dry weather would continue then for Thursday through Sunday, as no major frontal boundaries are likely to develop. Temps rise late in the week, with an upper level ridge in the plains trying to expand east.

The extended period has one system in it, and it looks like it has gobbled up our initial front we were looking for on the 20^th. This stronger, separate low pressure circulation moves in for the 22^nd and holds through the 23^rd. Moisture looks more impressive this morning, and may be able to bring rain and thunderstorms with rain totals of half to 1.25”. cold air may try to rush in behind, but even if it does, the pattern looks similar to what we have seen from late Jan through Feb thus far…very short duration cold blasts in an otherwise warmer than normal pattern. Needless to say, with this forecast, we will not be hurting for moisture across the Hoosier state as we move toward the end of the month.

High pressure begins a dominating run over the state today, pushing in from the NW. Cold air that began its move yesterday will complete it today with temps normal to a bit below normal or this time of year. However, while this is likely the coldest day of the week, the cold air dome is pretty shallow and fast moving. That means we see temps start to rise tomorrow, and that rise continues into the weekend, with much above normal temps. Strong south winds up the backside of the high will facilitate that move to much warmer air.

A warm front lifts across the state from southwest to northeast overnight Saturday night into Sunday. That will trigger some scattered showers with rain totals from a few hundredths up to .2”. Then, later on Sunday, we have a cold front sweeping through that can add another few hundredths to a quarter of an inch. That will bring rain totals for the entire system to .1”-.4” with coverage at around 80% of the state. Those moisture totals are not that impressive, and should not cause major problems. The above map is a snapshot of action around midnight Saturday night, as the warm front is on the move north.

Cold air returns behind the front early next week, but temps move back to above normal levels by late Tuesday and stay there through the balance of the week. WE will be dry from next Monday right on through the following weekend. A strong system will pass by Wednesday into Thursday well to our south, over the TN valley…but we will not see any inclement weather up in Indiana.

In the extended window, we still are watching the potential for a cold front around the 20^th, but models are suggesting a much stronger circulation for the 22^nd into the 23^rd, which may rob the earlier system of moisture and energy. Both need to be watched at this time. Temps will be well above normal in the extended period, as it is looking much more likely that we see a strong upper level ridge expand out of the plains and across the eastern part of the country. That may make a strong circulation around the 22^nd act more like a spring system than a winter one.

Brazil:

• Rainfall in northeast Brazil over the next 2 days will add up to 1-3” with coverage at 70%.
• Moisture will spread today over central/northern Brazil, including Matto Grosso to Goias and into Bahia, totaling 1-1.25” with 80% coverage.
• Most of the precipitation will be in the north this week, with the south not seeing as much moisture this week, with only a few pop up showers and thunderstorms.
• A significant frontal complex moves through this weekend into southern Brazil, including Matto Grosso do Sul Saturday, and lifting north and east through Sunday, bringing significant rains to Matto Grosso through Parana.
• It gives moisture totals of .5-2” across south/southeast Brazil Saturday-Sunday, with 90-100% coverage in Matto Grosso Sunday-Monday, before moving into Goias and northeast Brazil.
• It’s a slow-moving system that’ll bring good rains to all of Brazil, so any second-crop corn going in should get some nice rains to start it off.
• Tuesday-Thursday gets stormier over Matto Grosso and Goias, as thunderstorms fire off across an old frontal boundary, and the potential is there for excessively wet weather Tuesday-Wednesday, adding another 1-3” but it should be out of all crop areas by midday on Thursday.
• Brazil dries out Thursday afternoon-Saturday, allowing crops to use the moisture from earlier in the week.
• Temps will be normal to above normal over the next 7-10 days.

 

Argentina:

• Dry today as high pressure sits over the top of Argentina and be in control for several days, although as it shifts off the coast there could be moisture sneaking up the backside and into southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa.
• Totals will only be .1-.3” where it does fall and coverage will be no more than 30%.
• If the moisture can take root, it could spawn better showers on tomorrow in Cordoba, which models are suggesting but the front doesn’t look spectacular to me right now.
• It turns into a much better moisture producer farther north on tomorrow night-Friday, with the northern half of the country getting .5-1.5” rains, with coverage at 75-80% of that northern half of the country, although the heaviest rains will be further north out of most crop areas.
• Moisture circulating around another low moves into BA this weekend, along with southern Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, giving another 1” of rain Saturday night-Sunday.
• I see 1” totals now, but if it sits there for a while, the totals could become problematic for areas that have seen too much rain already, with potential to throw rains into BA from Sunday night-Tuesday even as it moves offshore.
• The rest of Argentina looks completely dry next week, which may not be good news for some of the drier areas of the country.
• Temps look slightly above normal over the next 7-10 days.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea/Russia weather:

• Gusty winds continue to howl over the entire region today yet.
• As snowfall ends this morning, the region breaks into a cold pattern, with temps at freezing or below from the Black Sea northward.
• Below zero temps are possible in western Ukraine, but in Russia’s southern region it stays above freezing through later this week.
• A strong high pressure dome settles in over central Russia at the end of the week-into the weekend, keeping most of the area dry, and that dryness holds through most of next week.
• A cool front sags southward into the region on Tuesday but it won’t have any moisture left to work with when it gets to the region.
• Temps will try to moderate over the second half of next week, getting above freezing in a lot of areas.
• Temps will be normal to below this week and normal to above next week.