Rains fall over the state today, after starting to push in last night. Our rain forecast remains unchanged with .25”-.75” likely with 100% coverage. Keep the umbrella handy, as it will be a damp day. Winds from the southwest will keep temps bumped up today, well above normal, in the 50s and even low 60s down south. The best thunderstorm potential developed last night as the action moved in, but we won’t rule out the potential for a few rumbles here and there through the day. Moisture will be tapering off later this afternoon and evening, but full stoppage likely will not be seen until closer to or just after midnight. The map above shows cumulative rain totals for this system through tonight.

Much colder air is on the way in for tomorrow. However, the cold air does not come in fast enough to raise concern about rain ending as snow. That being said, as we move into the afternoon hours, we see another tail of moisture pushing in over central Indiana that may trigger some snow. Liquid equivalents are a few hundredths to .1”. That would be enough to warrant discussion about minor accumulations of a coating to an inch from midday through evening tomorrow over central Indiana. We don’t think action goes any farther north than US 24, and temps would stay warm enough to trigger sprinkles south of US 50. But in-between, look for potential trouble tomorrow afternoon for any commutes or travels in central Indiana. Temps will be falling through the day through the 30s into the 20s. Overnight lows will be rather chilly. North winds will be fueling the cold air surge, but should not be overly gusty, averaging mostly in the 8-16 mph range.

The coldest day will be Thursday as high pressure sets up over NW OH. Temps will be normal to just a bit below. However winds switch to the south behind the high very quickly for Friday and that will lead to moderating temps. With sunshine Thursday through Saturday afternoon, we should see a nice rebound in temps into the weekend, with highs pushing back into the 40s.

Rains are back for Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Moisture totals are not that impressive, but it will be damp. We look for .1”-.4” rain totals with coverage at 80% of the state. These will be gentle light rains.

Dry for Monday through next Wednesday. Cooler air is in briefly behind the weekend system for Monday, but temps then go back above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. We should see plenty of sun through that period.

Our next system for the 16^th looks a lot more interesting this morning. Low pressure is tracking farther south and east, and that may drag moisture in with some cold air. AT this point, we see an increased potential for snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday the 16^th. We want to see another confirming model run or two, but this is much less cut and dried than 24 hours ago. Moisture totals still look to be mostly .25” to .5” or less, but if all snow, that would be a significant accumulation in a winter with very few snow events so far. Stay tuned.

The rest of the extended window shows not major changes, with only one front around the 20^th. It still looks to be a nice sweeping front with potential for half an inch or liquid or perhaps a bit more. Mostly dry behind that wave.

Corn Belt weather:

• Moisture is developing in the southwest Corn Belt this morning and holds on through the afternoon in the Deep South, then moving up into Illinois and Indiana overnight tonight-tomorrow.
• The low this activity is centered around moves into IA and MO around midnight, with the moisture becoming more organized from the mid-MS river valley up through OH, IN, and IL, before working into MI.
• Rain continues off and on through all of tomorrow, with wraparound moisture hanging on in MI through sunset carrying into IN and the Ohio valley.
• The moisture is off to the east by Tuesday night, and that’s when strong north winds bring down cold air, but the moisture will be off to the east so there’s no concern about any potential big snowfall amounts.
• A little light snow may move through IA, northern MO, and west central IL, thanks to a secondary wave coming out of the plains, with totals of a coating-2” maximum and coverage at 20-30% of the western Corn Belt.
• Gusty winds will blow over the Corn Belt but they don’t look as strong as they did last week, anywhere from 12-25 MPH as the Corn Belt transitions to cold air.
• Strong high pressure comes out of the northern plains by Wednesday, moving into the western Corn Belt and really taking control by Thursday and holding through Friday.
• The high is off to the east by Friday afternoon, which will allow strong south winds to bring the temps back up and it will trigger some precipitation in the Great Lakes region.
• Watching for a strong low coming out of the central plains on Sunday, with the low sitting over northwest IN at sunrise on Sunday, and as a result, the best precipitation will develop over the northern half of the Corn Belt.
• Most of the precipitation will fall north of I-80, but it does hit some areas south of I-80 in IL, IN, and OH, as rain totals look like .03-.2” and that falls between midnight and 4 a.m.
• The heavier rains fall over the rest of the day Sunday from I-80 northward into the Great Lakes, where they could see .5-1” rain totals.
• A cold front will also try to sweep through the eastern Corn Belt, including OH and eastern IN, through the rest of Sunday, leaving behind .25-.5” of moisture.
• Another round of high pressure will move in behind that, drying things out very late in the weekend and into next week from Monday-Wednesday.
• A high moves in over IA, which may mean a dry finish to next week as well, which means we could go the entire week with above normal temps in the Corn Belt and no precipitation.
• Right now, it doesn’t look like the cold February I was looking for will come to fruition, but we’ll still keep an eye on that.

 

Deep South weather:

• Scattered showers fall in the region over the next 24 hours, developing into a much stronger shower and thunderstorm event tomorrow morning.
• They start in AR and move eastward through MS, western TN, and western KY, before moving over the entire rest of the region midday Tuesday-Wednesday.
• Rain totals over the Deep South will be .25-1” with higher amounts likely in the western part of the region where more thunderstorms will break out, and coverage will be 75-80% of the region.
• Another round of scattered showers moves in Wednesday night-Thursday, primarily falling from AL eastward, with the best moisture potential in NC, SC, and GA, totaling .1-.5” maximum and 75% coverage.
• The south dries out after that with strong high pressure in control Friday-Sunday, and there won’t be anything more than widely scattered showers through next week.
• Those scattered showers develop overnight Sunday night-Monday morning, giving .25” or less and coverage only at 30% of the region.
• While the bulk of the region is dry next week, there will be some strong thunderstorms developing in TX, and these likely kick out and try to move over the Gulf Coast and hit southern LA Wednesday night-Thursday before moving into the FL panhandle.
• Most of the activity should stay south of the land mass, but if a low kicks out into the region it could push it farther north, so time will tell.
• Temps will be normal to above normal over the next 7-10 days.

 

Great Plains weather:

• Low pressure is working through the northern plains today, with strong gusty winds over ND and SD and some light snow falling.
• Moisture equivalents aren’t high so they’ll see a coating-3” in ND and a coating-1” in SD, but the winds will likely create some blowing and drifting problems there for the next 36-48 hours.
• High pressure moves in behind it over the rest of this week from Wednesday-Friday.
• Tuesday night-Wednesday, along the leading edge of the high, light snow will develop over NE, southeast WY, and northeast CO, with coverage at 25% of the plains, and there will be some snow accumulations.
• As that snow moves east, strong arctic high pressure is in for the second half of this week, parking right over eastern NE Thursday morning and bring colder than normal temps for 1.5 days.
• As the high moves east, south winds ramp up on the backside and moderate temps quickly from Thursday afternoon-Friday.
• Another low kicks out of CO next weekend and could trigger light precipitation in southern SD and eastern WY, northeast CO, and into the NE panhandle, with total coverage in the plains at 30% or less and moisture totals of .25-.5” or less.
• With the low having the strength we’re seeing right now, it won’t take much to push it into a bigger circulation if it can find a moisture source.
• Things dry out behind that wave of activity with the plains dry the following week from OK northward.
• Temps in the plains will be normal to slightly above, although there will be about two days worth of an arctic high bringing in cold temps, the region warms up quickly behind it.

A few tweaks to the forecast here this morning, as our next wave does not look to bring quite as strong of wind with it. Today will be dry over a good chunk of the Hoosier state. We do see some scattered light precipitation trying to develop very late this afternoon over far SW Indiana and trying to build northeast, but it will be very late in the day and more of a story overnight tonight. Southwest winds are moderating temps today, and that moderate continues ahead of the arriving cold front tomorrow. That cold front brings rains in to the state from late tonight through the entire day tomorrow. Rain totals will be mostly from .25”-.75” with coverage at nearly 100%. However, the threat of heavy rains is not that impressive at this time. Also, while it becomes breezy through the day with first southwest winds, then northwest, we do not see winds nearly as strong as we feared late last week for Tuesday and especially Wednesday. The map above is total precipitation through Wednesday midday.

On Wednesday, cold air comes in to the state, with strong northwest flow. However winds likely will be from 8-16 mph across the state with some gusts to 20, rather than sustained 20-40 mph winds or more that we were concerned about last week. Snow also will likely not be a story…with most moisture already long gone by the time the cold air arrives. We can’t rule out a few flakes, especially in northern Indiana with some lake enhancement, but generally, we have no accumulations anywhere.

Strong high pressure is in for Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday. Colder air will be in for the beginning of that period, but southwest winds return Friday afternoon and Saturday, bringing moderating temps again. WE like temps next weekend to be above normal.

Our next system arrives next Sunday with a low lifting right through the state. This will trigger rains of .1”-.5” over about 80% of the state. This rain will move through and be out of the state by Monday morning, before cold air arrives. WE may see a little bit of action with the warm front ahead of the system on Saturday morning along the Michigan line…but it is not major enough to warrant more than a mention at this point.

Following next Sunday’s system, we are dry for Monday through Wednesday of next week, with temps normal to slightly above normal. WE do not have a major warm push, but by the same token, there is no massive cold air incursion behind next Sunday’s cold front either.

In the extended window, it looks like cold air will not dominate the state enough to push us well below normal. That would lead to more rain in the extended window, with a weak front possible around the 16^th, and a stronger front for the 20^th. The front on the 20^th could have half an inch or more of liquid equivalent precipitation, and might have the potential to draw some colder air down again out of Canada.

Strong high pressure dominates for Friday and Saturday. Clouds may increase late Saturday afternoon. A weak flow around the backside of high pressure exiting the deep south may trigger some widely scattered showers over southern Indiana on Sunday, but most of that action stays south of the OH river, and we look for a drier outlook for Saturday night and Sunday than we have recently. In fact, coverage of moisture in that period likely will be under 20% of the state, with amounts a trace to a few hundredths maximum. Most of the state will be dry through Sunday.
Dry weather kicks off Monday, but by mid afternoon we see action working into the southern half of the state, as our next low seems to want to eject northeast of the central plains about 12 hours earlier than we previously were looking for. This will bring rains up to .25” in from I-70 southward after 1 PM through early evening. The rains continue to expand overnight to the north and east, and will bring .25-.6” rain totals from sunset Monday through 3 PM Tuesday to about 70% of the state. Wave number two kicks off Tuesday late afternoon and goes through Tuesday night. Heavy rain and thunderstorm action will be in over the southern half of the state after 3 PM Tuesday, and will lift northeast through midnight. Rains south of a line from Portland to Terre Haute can be from half to 1.5”, while north and east of that line we see .1”-.6” potential. Cold air races in after midnight Tuesday night, and will be in before all of the light, lingering, backside moisture is gone. This should promote snows of a coating to 2 inches over about 70% of the state to start Wednesday morning with higher amounts possible north, thanks to strong lake effect winds. Winds next Wednesday will average 20-40 mph statewide. With the cold air blasting in, wind chills will be a problem next Wednesday. The map above shows total liquid precipitation through Wednesday morning, when we see a switch-over to snow.

Dry Thursday and Friday. Cold for Thursday, but winds shift to the southwest for Friday and will promote moderating temps and a warm front pushing north. We cant rule out a few showers in northern Indiana near the MI line overnight Friday into Saturday as the strong south winds overrun that warm front. Totals will be mostly minor and coverage will be less than 10%. More encompassing rains move in Saturday evening through next Sunday, as a cool front swings back in from the west/northwest. Rain totals can reach .25”-1” over 80% of the state in an 18-hour period starting around sunset Saturday night the 11^th.

In the extended window, only one system is likely to hold together as we see it right now, a strong cold front for late the 15^th into the 16^th. This looks like it can be a predominantly rain making system at this point, as the low shows excellent south winds ahead of it, pulling moisture of the Gulf of Mexico. Rain totals an be from half to 1 inch, coverage 80% of the state. Models also suggest a strong upper level ridge over the western half of the country. However, its impact on the east is up in the air. If it stays stationary, that likely opens up a super highway for cold air do dive south in over the eastern third of the country, including Indiana. However, of the ridge moves or expands east…we could easily see the last 10 days of February look like the middle of January here…well above normal. The precipitation pattern looks active either way…but what type of precip we get…that depends on the temps.