No change in the outlook this morning. Dry today and most of tomorrow. Temps may add a couple more degrees today over yesterday, but we do not have a “blowtorch” set up that brings super warm air. Just working our way slightly above normal.

We still have a 3 day period of moisture working through the state with breaks in between. Our timing is nearly unchanged from yesterday. The first wave comes in tomorrow night and goes into early Saturday morning. Moisture comes up from the southwest and will leave the state by Saturday midday to early afternoon. We like moisture totals from a few hundredths to about a quarter of an inch with coverage at 80% of the state. A few areas in the SW corner of the state may push over a quarter of an inch, but that will not be on a large scale. Our thinking on sloppy wet snowflakes is unchanged as well: we will keep an eye out in NW parts of the state, but in general, we don’t look for snow to be a major part of our forecast.

Wave #2 comes in for Christmas day. We are bumping timing up on this event just a little bit, looking for rains to be over the state already Christmas morning, and lingering though the day. Rain totals look to be from a few hundredths to about half an inch in a few spots. Coverage not as much as we had been looking for – we put it at 60% of the entire state. Coverage in the south is better than but not as good in the north as we had been seeing. Either way, clouds hold all day – so a rather gray Christmas is in store.

The third wave and a strong cold front sweep through for Monday. Rains here can be another quarter to half inch or more with coverage at 100%. We need to keep an eye out for thunderstorms, although the threat does not look as big this afternoon as it did 24 hours ago. Still, this moisture brings our 3 day totals to half to 1 inch. Some areas may still push toward that 1.5” number we published yesterday, but with the lower chance of thunderstorms, we don’t think there is as much of a chance for the heavy rains. Still, with the snow in parts of the state and the rains that are coming, extra water will be around for the first half of next week, and there can be some minor flooding to talk about. The map above shows potential for cumulative rain totals through Monday evening.

Colder air comes in behind the front for Tuesday and Wednesday, with temps below normal over most of the state. WE see a weak little upper level wave bringing the chance for some light snow to the state on Wednesday. But, a bigger player could be a system for Thursday. The European model is bringing most moisture in on its latest run…it’s still not to the level of the GFS, but we feel confident in saying there will be some rain and snow in for Thursday, and we could see moisture totals up to at least half an inch. Most of the precipitation will be rain, but colder air is here, so we have a concern about accumulating snow over the norther third of the state. There is plenty of time for this to modify and change track…but at this time, we look to be a little active for the 29^th and 30^th.

Cooling down again as we flip the calendar into 2017, but we should be rather calm and tranquil, with no major systems for that holiday weekend. We still think we see a system shortly after, though, for the 4^th-5^th-6^th period.

Temps continue to moderate some today, working to normal levels over most of the state. This will continue through tomorrow and Friday as well. South and southwest winds will keep the region dry through the period as well.

Our next period of unsettled weather develops Friday overnight into Saturday and kicks off a three-day period that will end up rather wet over most of the state. Showers begin to push into the state near midnight Friday night and will spread northeast through the overnight hours. This first wave should be moving out of the state by Saturday midday. Moisture totals there should be mostly a quarter to third of an inch or less. The action will be mostly rain, although we can’t rule out some sloppy wet snow over NW parts of the state, especially in areas where there is not very much moisture to work with. Coverage of this event will be around 80%.

The rest of Christmas Eve will be dry, but clouds thicken again overnight Saturday night. This will lead to a second wave of action that moves in for Christmas afternoon. This batch of moisture looks to impact the northern half to third of the state more than the south. Rain totals can be from .3” to .8” with coverage at 80% over the northern half, but 20% or less south of I-70. Precipitation will be in the form of Rain, and will be most intense after 3pm.

We get our third and final wave later Monday afternoon and Monday night with the cold front finally working through the state. This will be the wave that brings the biggest precipitation totals, with half to 1.25”. Coverage will be nearly 100% of the state. Precipitation type will be rain and thunderstorms, although we still have some minor concern about the speed of cold air coming in behind the front. Right now we look for moisture to be gone before we see temps dip below freezing…but that will be the biggest thing we need to watch at this time. If everything works as we see it, all precipitation over this holiday weekend period will be liquid. But…totals look a little m
ore impressive to us this morning, enough to raise our combined 3 day totals to half to 1.5” with coverage at 100% of the state. The map above shows potential combined rain totals through Monday night. We think the northern part of the state can see higher amounts thanks to the second wave on Sunday. With the current snowpack over the northern third of the state, the warming expected this weekend and the rains, we could enter next Tuesday with a very wet situation statewide, and we would not rule out some minor flooding in spots. Ground conditions are not frozen very deep, so in theory, we should be able to handle this water fairly easily, but time will tell.

Behind the Monday front, we see much colder air returning, although we will not come anywhere near the level of cold that we just got through the past few days. Temps will be below normal, but stay mostly in the teens and 20s, with overnight lows in the single digits at worst. Dry weather expected for next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Models have a dramatically differing opinion of next Thursday. The European model has at best a weak trough sweeping through quickly on Thursday that can produce a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth or two of scattered showers, mostly over the central part of the state. This would be with a stronger low passing by south of the OH river. Coverage would be no better than 40%. However, the GFS model ramps up a big rain making front for the 29^th, that could bring half to 1-inch rain totals to 100% of the state. WE think, given the current pattern that is emerging, the GFS may be slightly better at this point. WE like the solution because it also leads to a much colder pull of air down out of Canada for the turn of the year, and sets up a similar pattern to what has been evolving over December to this point. Still, there is some uncertainty at this point, and the time period will need to be watched closely.

Behind that event, dry, cooler weather should set up for the 30^th and 31^st, with temps normal to below. No major precipitation is expected at this point for New Year’s. However, an Alberta clipper type system may try to rip into the region around the 4^th, bringing a chance for a quick burst of snow through the 5^th.

After a cold start today, south winds will help temps moderate just a bit. We still likely will not go over “normal highs, but we will be able to do a little better than the past few days where we have been so cold. However, clouds will be on the increase, as we gear up for our next system this weekend.

That system continues to look similar to how we laid things out 24 hours ago. That means a large part of the state will see predominately rain. The biggest area where this system could still surprise will come on the backside. Will the cold air race in a little sooner, while moisture is still trying to clear the area to the east? Will better wrap around develop through the day Sunday? But, initially, this looks to start as a little snow up north, have rain on Saturday, and then the rain switches back over to snow in northern areas Saturday afternoon/eve before ending. We are tweaking/finessing our precipitation totals and types a bit here this morning, but nothing serious. From US 6 northward, we can see action starting tonight and going through tomorrow early morning as snow, accumulating a coating to 2 inches. Then rains for tomorrow morning into early afternoon with about .2” of liquid falling, and then a switch back to snow that can bring another coating to 2 inches. From SR14 up to US 6, a similar pattern, with a coating to 1 tonight, .2”-.4” rain tomorrow, ending as another coating to an inch as things end later tomorrow. A little monkey wrench in this area is a threat of a brief spat of freezing rain overnight tonight as temps in the lower atmosphere warm just a little faster than we do at the surface, given we will still be lacking solar radiation. Then south of SR14, we may see a few flurries, but have a slightly higher concern about freezing rain or drizzle overnight in areas along the US24 corridor. Ice accumulations will be minor, if they happen, at under a tenth of an inch, but we need to watch it. Farther south, the concern is just not there. Then rains come in all day tomorrow, and we can see things end tomorrow late afternoon with a chance of a coating to an inch of snow, mostly over eastern parts of the state. The detail here may end up getting skewed by 20-50 miles one way or the other, but hopefully, this gives you the idea of how this system is likely to emerge. It is not nearly as bad as we feared early this week…and that is a good thing. However, we have not really talked up winds too much, and in reality, that could be a very big piece here….winds averaging 15-30 mph through the event…leading to blustery conditions, blowing snow and low visibility during times it actually does snow, and nasty wind chills, especially tomorrow night. Do not underestimate the effects of this event.

Bitter cold air blasts in to finish the weekend and start next week. Strong north winds fuel this change, and that will actually lead to wrap around snow and lake effect snows for Sunday, mostly over the northern part of the state. We can add another coating to an inch or two in non-lake effect areas, and 2-4 inches in LaPorte, St Joe, Elkhart counties, and even some lake enhancement down into Marshall and Kosciusko counties. Central and southern Indiana just are cold and blustery. Strong arctic high pressure centers over the state for Monday and holds cold in through Tuesday.

Moderating temps begin to appear Wednesday, as south flow starts to return. WE like temps moving back closer to normal. A weak wave moves across the state Wednesday night through Thursday that can bring minor snow to the northern part of the state, and perhaps a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of liquid from I-70 southward. Then we move back to dry weather for next Friday and Christmas Eve Saturday, with near normal temps and south winds. In fact, there is a chance we see temps tick a couple degrees above normal for Christmas eve.

Models suggest there is another system moving out of the central plains into our area on Christmas day. However, timing may push it back later in the day on Christmas Sunday. This event would have liquid to start over most of the state, with a chance to snow as the front passes, and the moisture potential looks large at this point.  But, there are a lot of moving pieces that could change between now and then.

The extended period would start with another well below normal push of cold air behind that Christmas day/boxing day system. That would settle in for about 2-3 days, as seems to be the pattern here to this point, then we dry out and moderate temps a bit, and prepare for another frontal complex looking to move in with cold air for the 30^th into the turn of the calendar year.

 

Lingering moisture this morning will move away quickly today as our frontal boundary sweeps through. Snows fell pretty close to levels we expected over the weekend, with the only difference between our thoughts and the actual event coming down to timing…the snow started earlier than we were looking for, and therefore is out sooner today than we anticipated. No biggie…we have no problem with that. Now, we prepare to get much colder in the days ahead.

We see significant arctic air getting pulled into the region behind the front that is exiting to the east this morning. This air will peak Wednesday and Thursday mornings, where we see temps pushing into the low single digits and even see a few readings near 0. In this cold air we have the potential for one weak little clipper type event tomorrow afternoon that can bring a little bit of snow to the northern half of the state (a coating to an inch or so…nothing serious). Farther south, we see nothing. South winds will begin to arrive Thursday afternoon and that should push temps back closer to normal for the latter part of the week.
The biggest story that will be talked about this week will the potential for a major storm moving through this weekend. Models show a significant area of low pressure hooking out of the central plains and heading across the state. There is a lot of moisture with this system…with liquid equivalent precipitation at over 1.5” in parts of the state. And, cold air is coming in with this…so there will be potential for snow as well. The liquid equivalent precipitation range will be at least half to 1.5” with coverage at 100% of the state. WE like all rain over the southern third of the state, but the rest of the state can see rain, snow, heavy snow, or a combination of all three. Right now, the track and arrival of cold air points to a chance of major snows in west central Indiana, including Terre Haute. But…this will be a system that will be exceptionally track dependent…meaning we will not be putting out any precipitation totals for a while. In fact…it could be all rain!!  Systems that produce the heaviest snows always do it with a very sharp rain/snow line and a massive liquid core. This system looks like it may have that, and we just have to see where it wants to set up. Either way…rain, or snow – there will be plenty of moisture in here this coming weekend. The map above is a shows a potential snapshot of Saturday evening.

Behind the strong system for this weekend, yet another arctic blast awaits. This one will be in for the start of the week leading up to Christmas, and will be colder than what we see this week. Single digit temps are likely over a larger part of the state, and we can see some areas push below zero for the first time this season.

In the extended forecast window, models suggest another system for Christmas Eve into Christmas day. However, at this time, there looks to be enough of a southerly surge of warmer air to put most of the precipitation in as rain. That may quash hopes for a white Christmas…but there also is plenty of time between now and then, and plenty of cold air that can alter model depictions of future events. So…stay tuned. For now, the active, and colder than normal pattern for the month is set to continue for a little while…well into the extended part of the forecast period.