High pressure starts to move off to the east today and that will allow for more west and southwest winds to emerge. We will not see temps immediately respond with warming, but our cold push should stop. Better temperature moderation is likely tomorrow. Clouds clear out over most of the state today, but will hold in northern areas, and there still can be some lake snows developing in western Michigan that try to drift slightly south. Southwest winds start to increase in velocity tomorrow.

Sunday still looks to turn wet, but rains wait a little longer to move into the state. Also, the rain totals will likely be a little lower as the system lacks intensity at this point. Rains start in SW Indiana shortly after noon, and then spread north and east from there. We like rain totals of .1”-.4” over 90% of the state. We have no concern about rains over half an inch any more. The bulk of the rains will be done by midnight. Clouds linger overnight through Monday, though, and that will lead to a somewhat damp feel, even a bit of drizzle in there behind the system.

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look dry, with a good deal of sun in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps will be normal to above normal for the period, as southwest winds hold through the period. Thursday will feature some cloud increase, ahead of a front for overnight Thursday into Friday the 22^nd. That front is not loaded with moisture, but still will be worth a few hundredths to .25” of rain over 90% of the state. We will see very, very strong winds develop as the front passes and behind it. Those winds behind the front will be out of the west-northwest and will average 20-40 mph. This is a very strong circulation that so far, has looked to be unable to tap into any moisture source. That is what we will be watching through the week next week, because if it is able to gain access to any moisture, say – off of the Gulf – it will be a much wetter event. For now, just wind and a little rain.

Much colder air is in behind that system for the balance of Friday the 22^nd into the weekend ahead of Christmas. Northwest winds may create some lake effect snows in northcentral Indiana, but generally, we are not looking for as significant of spread of lake snows and lake clouds as what we have seen over the past week. The map above shows totals 10 day rains over the state between now and Christmas Eve. Even though it seems like an active pattern here, true moisture from these waves is limited in general.

There’s a significant storm complex developing in and around Christmas. This storm comes out of the southern plains, skims the gulf coast and then heads northeast through the mid and lower Mississippi valley around the 24^th-25^th. That track allows for ample moisture to be available. Cold air should solidly be in place too, meaning this could be a recipe for some significant winter weather for that period from Christmas Eve to the 26^th. However, at this time, we think the track is too far south for us to be in the main firing line of heaviest moisture. That being said…there is plenty of time for the track to move and change, so it is definitely worth keeping an eye on. The rest of the 11-16 day forecast window has two strong, cold high pressure domes moving in from NW to SE right on through the turn of the year, meaning we finish 2017 cold…perhaps well below normal.

No change in thought process this morning. We stay cold for a couple of days behind last night’s clipper system, but temperature moderation is on the way for the weekend.

High pressure behind the system keeps us dry today into early tomorrow. Sunshine should be a dominant player over central and southern Indiana, but clouds may hold firmer up north.  West to slightly northwest winds pick up tomorrow around midday and that may bring some lake effect snows back to extreme northern Indiana. However while that is happening, we see warmer air slowly trying to rise into southern Indiana. We may be able to see Friday highs push toward the upper 40s in far southern Indiana. Temps will then continue to moderate statewide Saturday, with only north central and northeast Indiana staying closer to freezing.

Sunday looks wet. Strong south flow ahead of our next weather system takes temperatures up to the point where rain breaks out Sunday morning over southwest Indiana and moves north from there. Rain totals can be from .25”-.50” over about 90% of the state, and the remaining 10% has a chance of pushing closer to .75”.  Models are in disagreement on whether we see a secondary push of moisture after midnight Sunday through midday Monday that can bring a little more liquid. Either way, it will be a nice little batch of rain that will get rid of most snow cover.

Monday midday we go drier behind that system, and we stay dry through Thursday morning. Temperatures moderate through the period, and will be normal to even slightly above normal by midweek next week. Our final front of the 10 day period arrives late next Thursday afternoon into Friday the 22^nd. This front again brings mostly rain, as the cold air waits to arrive until after the moisture is gone. We look for a few hundredths to .3” of rain over 70% of the state. That system will be the one that puts the nail in the coffin for a white Christmas, unless cold air can come faster.

Dry r the 23^rd into the 24^th. Extended models are suggesting a potential late Christmas Eve system that goes through Christmas day. This system does not have as strong of characteristics this morning, but we are not going to remove it from the extended forecast window completely.  If it can survive, and if the air is cold enough, we still may have a chance at a white Christmas…but for now those thoughts have to go on life support.

Mother Nature becomes a little bi-polar in our latest forecast. We have cold air that wants to stay in control through the rest of this week, but it has to endure some moderating surges. Then, next week. We look to get warm enough that approaching systems have more rain potential than snow. Overall, we are lowering our expectations of a white Christmas down to about a 20% chance. Here is how things are shaping up this morning.

A warm front is trying to lift into the state today .This front makes it through Central Indiana, but likely does not come all the way into the northern third of the state. Low pressure at the origin of this warm front works through this afternoon through the overnight, and we should see some snows associated with that. These snows do not look as impressive as they did 24 and 48 hours ago, but right now we do not think we are going to waver from our thoughts of 1”-4” of snow. However, coverage will be limited mostly to northern Indiana, and particularly the northern third for those snow totals. A few flurries and light snow showers may be seen down to the I-70 corridor but accumulations are not likely. The snows are most intense from sundown through midnight, and by mid-morning tomorrow, all action will be off to the east. There is no precipitation threat in southern Indiana.

High pressure behind the system keeps us dry and sunny through the balance of Thursday into early Friday. Northwest winds pick up Friday midday and that may bring some lake effect snows back to northern Indiana. However while that is happening, we see warmer air slowly trying to rise into southern Indiana. We may be able to see Friday highs push toward the upper 40s in far southern Indiana. Temps will then continue to moderate statewide Saturday, with only north central and northeast Indiana staying closer to freezing.

Sunday looks wet. Strong south flow ahead of our next weather system takes temperatures up to the point where rain breaks out Sunday morning over southern Indiana and moves north from there. Rain totals can be from .25”-.75” from I-70 southward. We will see some rains up north too, but temps will top out only near 35 degrees from US 24 northward. That is warm enough for rain, but also cold enough for sloppy wet snow. So, liquid equivalent precipitation can be up to .5”, but we can see a mix of rain and wet snow. 100% of the state sees action on Sunday, rain or snow, or both.

Next Monday we go drier behind that system, and we stay dry through Thursday morning. Temperatures moderate through the period, and will be normal to even slightly above normal by midweek next week. Our final front of the 10 day period arrives late next Thursday afternoon into Friday the 22^nd. This front again brings mostly rain, as the cold air waits to arrive until after the moisture is gone. We look for a few hundredths to .3” of rain over 70% of the state. That system will be the one that puts the nail in the coffin for a white Christmas, unless cold air can come faster.

Dry r the 23^rd into the 24^th. Extended models are suggesting a potential late Christmas Eve system that goes through Christmas day. This system has good moisture potential…and if cold enough, may bail out those wanting a white Christmas. But, for now, it is far enough out that we are just going to watch it and see the track it wants to carve out.

A mixed bag is expected today as we have lake snows moving over northern and east central Indiana today, but nothing major in other areas. Clouds will dominate, and after yesterday’s mild push over the southern part of the state, we see temps moving back down. Low pressure is interacting with lake winds to produce the snows today, with the best snows stretching from SW Lower Michigan down to east central Indiana and west central Ohio. We can see several inches of accumulation in the north and east.

A stronger clipper system is in for the area tomorrow. The best snows develop late morning and early afternoon on through the overnight. We can see 1-4 inches over the northern half to third of the state and into Ohio. This will be a fairly significant event. However, areas in SW Indiana and southern Indiana we see little to no action

Thursday and Friday should be mostly dry with no frontal action moving in.  But we continue to see some on and off light snow action around in northern Indiana, fueled by lake effect breezes through the period. Saturday looks like another “north vs. south” kind of day, with snows in the morning north of US 30, but nothing farther south. Another low pressure circulation moves in for Sunday, and we have to put precipitation in the forecast to finish the weekend. Snow totals can be 2-4 inches over the northern half of the state, with 100% coverage north of US 24. Once again, south of I-70, we have nothing. This is the system we had been watching for Sunday night and Monday. The low is pushing farther north, keeping precipitation out of southern Indiana and it is coming faster.

We should be a little drier for next week, then, Monday through Wednesday. Temps remain normal to slightly below. While we do see a large part of the state trying to climb above freezing, we do not see as strong of southwest flow now and think that any bump in temperatures will be minor. Lake snows and strong north winds are back by Thursday, and temps head back down.

The extended period still shows plenty of cold air, and we look for snows around the 21^st into the 22^nd. There should be good coverage over the state, but the question remains concerning any liquid that may try to mix in. Behind that, we are dry through Christmas weekend, with snow trying to develop out of an upper level low coming through the great lakes Christmas night into the 26^th.