Clouds will be on the increase over the state today as a cold front edges closer. This front likely slows as it moves in, and we still do not think we see any serious precipitation until tomorrow. Scattered showers will be in for most of the state in an off and on matter through the entire day tomorrow, finally exiting to the east ahead of sunset. We are holding with rain totals from a few hundredths to no more than .3”, and the best rains likely fall over central and southern Indiana. Coverage will be around 80%.

Behind the front, we have drier weather back for a good 4 days. We cool off for Friday, but should see a slow build in temps through the weekend. The biggest hint of our being in a cooler air mass behind the front will be morning lows, as we should dip below freezing Friday morning, Saturday morning and even in a few spots Sunday morning. Daytime highs will not be too far away from normal (which is still a good 15 degrees cooler than what we saw yesterday, if you want to compare).

Next week will have a tricky start. We have a significant low developing in the plains for the finish of the weekend (Sunday night) and start of next week. This low splits into 2 “heads” and lifts east and north. A warm front out of the northern low will bring scattered showers to great lakes Monday morning. Most of this moisture will be in Michigan and Wisconsin, but we can see some clouds and a bit of fringe action trying to get into extreme northern and NW Indiana Monday morning. Rains will be under .25” and coverage minor. However, we can’t overlook it. Strong southwest flow will take temps significantly higher through the balance of Monday ahead of the arrival of the southern low and front for Monday night and Tuesday. Rains look to be heavier in that time frame and will have more coverage. For now, we will project .25”-.75” over about 60% of the state. However, those totals are dependent on no development of thunderstorms. If storms develop, they likely would be in central and southern Indiana, and it would open the door to some 1”+ rain potential. This storm looks strong. And, movement is faster with the track much farther east than it was 2 days ago. So, rains are likely to start the week, but exact specifics are still subject to change.

The front may stall just south of the Ohio river for midweek. This exactly where it stalls will be key, as we expect more moisture to move up the front with waves of thunderstorms being fed by good flow off of the Gulf. Right now, we are keeping those thunderstorms out of the state for Wednesday…but if the front stalls in southern Indiana…that would mean we have to bring those thunderstorms right up in as well. Cooler temps settle in over the state for Wednesday behind the front.

Slowly we dry out for Thursday and Friday with Canadian high pressure easing in to the western corn belt. We never really fall under the influence of the high, but we see it blocking any moisture or systems coming in from the west and northwest.

In the extended forecast period we have a minor upper level low moving over the great lakes for Saturday the 9^th, brining .05”-.5” rain potential to 60% of the state. Then the rest of the period from the 10^th through the 14^th we see a somewhat cloudy, gray period, with no new rain, but also not a lot of sunshine. A somewhat typical late fall early winter sky pattern is expected. A large upper level trough will be sitting over the eastern third of the country. Even though we think high pressure to be here, especially the 14^th, it won’t be especially dominating, and we think that the flow pattern is not one that is conducive to a fully sunny, dry pattern.

Windy today with strong southwest winds ramping up to 15-30 mph. Temps should push into the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds will be building tomorrow as we get closer to our next frontal passage for Thursday. Temps will be slightly lower because of the cloud build, but still will be well above normal for the year. The front arrives Thursday, bringing .05”-.3” of action to about 70% of the state. It will be east of us by evening.

We dry back down behind the front for Friday and temperatures remain above normal. A cooler weekend will be in store, with temps rising again on Monday. All 4 days will be dry.

Scattered showers move into the state next Tuesday, but will be limited to a few hundredths to .3” over about 70% of the state. This will be likely with a warm front lifting in. Then the big question mark for the entire forecast period comes for next Wednesday and Thursday. WE still are looking for a nice cluster of rain and thunderstorms to come out of the southwest, up a cold frontal boundary into the state. WE are looking for as much as .25”-1” if the thunderstorms can develop. However, models disagree, and call for the action to disintegrate. We are leaving our forecast alone at this time. Scattered showers linger in NW flow behind the strong low in Canada for Friday and Saturday of next week, bringing cumulative additional precipitation up to .25”.

In the extended period, we see mixed clouds and sun for the 10^th through the 13^th with cooler temps on strong north winds. In fact, we think there is a good chance this will swing the pattern back to below normal for the balance of December.

Southwest flow dominates the start of this week, precisely the same way we finished last week. These southwest winds will allow temps to climb to above normal levels again. Today’s winds will be brisk at times, but generally not as strong as what we saw over the weekend and what we will see tomorrow. Winds today will average 8-16 miles an hour, and tomorrow we will likely be back in the 12-25 mph range. Still, those winds will be bringing in warmer air for the first half of the week. We stay dry through Wednesday.

Our next front is still on the way for Thursday, although it does not look as strong this morning as it did late last week. We still will be looking for some clouds and some light precipitation, but we are taking moisture totals down this morning from our thoughts last Friday. At this time, we look for a few hundredths to no more than .3”, and that top end of the range will be somewhat limited in geographical coverage. Most of us that see rain will be .15” or less. Coverage of rain will be around 60%, and no more than 70%. This front moves through fairly quick. The map above shows a snapshot of potential action at midday Thursday.

Behind the front, we are back to drier weather to finish the week and for the weekend. Temperatures will be close to normal, which will be cooler than our start here, but still, not bad considering we are flipping the calendar into December. Sunshine should dominate through the weekend.

Next week we have some minor precipitation lifting up from the southwest overnight Monday night through Tuesday. Moisture totals do not look spectacular, and will likely be limited to no more than .2” over 70% of the state. This may end up being more of a spit-sprinkle-drizzle event than anything else, but there is plenty of time for this wave to tap into more moisture as it develops. We swing back dry for a day or two behind that event.

In the extended period, models are divergent on what we can expect. Our gut feeling is that we have at least 1 front around the 8^th that brings .25”-.75” over 80% of the state. Then we can have another front late in the period, around the 11^th into the 12^th that can bring up to .5”. However, we find ourselves in a very dry pattern now, and we think that any front that is successful in bringing moisture back will have to be somewhat strong. When the upper level ridge over the nation’s midsection starts to degrade, that will be when we start to see more active weather moving in. For now, it looks like we still should have a pretty good window for field work.

Our cold front came through about 6 hours earlier than we were looking for yesterday. No biggie…that means its farther east and south already this morning. The minor moisture that was with it is trying to exit Ohio. Colder air is here, and will stick around for about 36 hours, into Thanksgiving Day tomorrow. Temperatures will be below normal in that period, but we see no major travel issues and we should be able to see more and more fields get fit for harvest.

Temps begin to rebound later tomorrow night, after we are all digesting some turkey. Temperatures should be back to normal and above normal levels for Friday and the rest of the week. Strong southwest winds will again be the harbinger of the moderating push, and as such will mostly likely mask the warmth some…just like Monday and the first part of yesterday. Dry weather will continue through the weekend. We may still have to look out for some clouds Saturday afternoon as a strong low moves across MI and into Ontario, but the track of that low is farther north, so we do not have concern about precipitation at this time. Cooler temps move in for Monday.

Southwest winds are back as we move into midweek next week, taking temperatures back up. However, we are removing the threat of precipitation for next Wednesday, moving our forecast drier again. So, this continues the window of opportunity for drying and completion of harvest.

Without that chance of rain at midweek next week, we may not see our next chance of moisture developing until December. A front for the 1^st through the 3^rd not nearly as big of a player, given the drying of the atmospheric profile and dominant high pressure. We are not going to remove precipitation completely yet, but will pull it back dramatically, posting only a few hundredths to .3” over 50% of the state. There is a good chance we completely remove this system in a few days, giving its current state of relevance.

For the rest of the extended period, we continue to watch a very strong front for the 6^th, and may pull it forward into the 5^th. This may be why the early December system is fading…its moisture and energy is getting pulled into a later system. Time will tell, but we are initially going to project .25”-.75” rains over 80% of the Corn Belt. However, this being a good 2 weeks out…there is plenty of time for the system to modify and change track. So, we are just watching with elevated interest right now.

Overall, even though there was a little more moisture yesterday than we would have liked, our forecast is still for a fairly dry pattern going forward through at least the next 10 days. After the heavy rains of this past weekend, this has to be looked at as a good thing. Temps also do not look as cold as we had feared a week to 10 days ago.