A very interesting set up to finish the week here in Ohio (side note: if you hear a meteorologist describe the weather as “interesting” 9 times out of 10, it’s not an exceptionally good thing!). Rain coverage geographically was fairly close to expectations yesterday, but the top end of the rain totals range far exceeded our expectations. Still, we see less moisture coverage in the short term, today and tomorrow. But, we do still have a strong batch of rain and thunderstorm action coming to finish the weekend, and unfortunately this morning we have to also raise the specter of feeling the effects of a tropical system early next week. The long and short of it all is that we have “plenty” of rain coming…much more than we need as we find ourselves in harvest season. Let’s break it down for you this morning.

Today we have moisture limited to the far northern part of the state. We had been talking about US 30 being a southern boundary for the showers today, but in all actuality, it may be a good 30-40 miles farther north of there. But, let’s not get too cute with it. We are dropping rain totals to .05”-.3” north of US 30 with coverage at 70%. South of there we see mixed clouds and sun. Saturday should feature partly sunny skies with gusty winds and surging warmth. There should not be any significant rain action before evening.

Saturday evening things get kicked up a notch. A strong front, the final kicker to this system we have been dealing with for several days, will sweep through. Rain and thunderstorms from 6PM Saturday night through 6AM Sunday can total .25”-1.5” with coverage at 90% of the state. We all should see some kind of rain. Storms can be strong to severe, but the magnitude of any strong storm will ultimately be capped by when it moves in. This will a very “spring-like” thunderstorms set up. The map above shows rain potential through Sunday midday.

Sunday we clearing try to work in over the northern half to two thirds of the state. However, Sunday we also have Tropical Storm (or likely at that time minor Hurricane Nate) hitting the gulf coast. It is projected to use that front that sweeps through Saturday night (which will be just to our south and east Sunday afternoon) as a superhighway to truck north-northeast. That can bring more rain back into eh state from the south, perhaps getting into far southern OH by late Sunday afternoon. The rains develop further and spread dramatically Sunday overnight through Monday into early Tuesday. If the track of the remains comes right across us, we can see rain totals from Sunday night through Tuesday morning at .5”-3” and coverage 100%. But the key here is that where the storm make landfall along the gulf coast will ultimately play into where the remains start to go and the track they have. The best we can tell you this morning is to prepare for lots of rain, and then check in with us again Monday morning for the latest. The map here shows model projections for Nate’s track.

The rest of the week should be dry over most of Ohio. We are taking rains out of NE Ohio for midweek, instead looking at just clouds. Our thought is that the strength of the remains of Nate will take any lingering moisture from the atmosphere and drag it off to the northeast. So, no rain statewide from Tuesday through Friday. Early Saturday we may have to deal with a few showers in NW Ohio bringing up to .25”, but the rest of the state misses out, and we should see a fairly dry Sunday too in all areas.

The extended period is getting some better definition this morning and is also getting wetter. We have a front that is taking its own sweet time developing and stretching out over areas to our west next week finally moving in for the 16^th into the 17^th. It should bring .25”-1” over 100% of the state, and then a second strong front around 20^th and 21st that can bring another .25”-1.5” of rain over 80% of the state. Those two systems in the extended period can bring two stages of cooler weather in, and we may be looking at some potential first frost temperature levels after the 21^st.

 

 

Some changes in the forecast this morning, and they are wetter changes. The front that is on its way to the area looks to slow down dramatically late in the week, and that should provide better rain totals. And, we see two more minor waves coming in behind the front. It all adds up to our first look at significant harvest delays this season.

Before things begin to turn sour, though, we do see a very warm and sunny day again today over the entire state. South winds will kick up and be a bit more gusty than yesterday, taking temps up into the upper 70s and low to mid 80s statewide. This will allow for excellent harvest progress again today.

Tomorrow, we start to see clouds in ahead of or next front, with some prefrontal rains in over the northern half of the state. Action is not all that impressive for tomorrow, but we can’t rule it out either. Rains will be in the few hundredths to quarter inch range with coverage at about 60% of the area north of I-70. South of 70 we see nothing.

Thursday, the actual cold front arrives and is slows its progression across the state from NW to southeast through the day. This will draw precipitation out into most of Friday as well, and we can see significant warm air coming up from the south, interacting with the colder air from the north. It is a recipe for strong thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning. Those thunderstorms can push rain totals higher as well. We like 2 day rain totals of .25”-1.5” and coverage of 80% of the state. Only far southern Indiana, areas south of US 50, will see less rain or even no rain. On Saturday we have a secondary trough that rotates through and it can bring an additional .25”-.75” of rain to about 70% of the state. That means combined, from tomorrow through the weekend, we can see rains of half to 2 inches easily over the region. That will be enough to effectively grind harvest to a halt.

As if that were not enough, we look to see one more quick moving system coming through on Monday. That system has rains of .25”-1” sweeping across 70% of the state. The upper end of the range will be fueled by an expected line of strong thunderstorms in, mostly over northern Indiana. Without the thunderstorms, .25” rain totals will be most coming. Still…it means we will have just that much more water to deal with before we can get harvest going again. The map above shows potential cumulative rain totals from tomorrow through next Monday night.

The good news is that we see dry weather for the balance of next week from Tuesday right on into the following weekend. In fact, most of the extended window is dry as well, with our next system of interest holding off until closer to the 17^th into the 18^th. That system will be a good rain maker, though, so we will need to take advantage of harvest opportunities that arise late next week and weekend. Still…those may be hard to get to, given the new amounts of rain we see coming to finish this week.

Dry weather continues today and tomorrow, and temperatures warm up from the seasonal readings we saw over the weekend. Sunshine will dominate today and tomorrow, helping to fuel the warming again. This will continue to be excellent for harvest.

Things start to change up a little bit at midweek. We have a significant front working out of the plains and into the Corn Belt this week, and it looks to try and move into Indiana the second part of the week. This is where things get a little interesting, though, as some models are trying to bring in action already first thing Wednesday. Likely what we will be looking at here is a pseudo-warm front that will be attempting to lift through ahead of the cold frontal boundary arrival. The question is: “is there enough energy and moisture with that little warm wave to actually trigger some precipitation”. At this point, we think that we need to at least be on the lookout for something through the first part of Wednesday over the northern half of the state.  South of I-70 we see nothing. Moisture totals will be minor…a few hundredths to at most a quarter of an inch, but with clouds building and a front lurking, it is a little bit of a gamble to leave the forecast completely dry. That being said, we think that moisture chances are much higher and rain is actually likely statewide the following day on Thursday.

Thursday, the actual cold front arrives, and we see good moisture through the state. In fact, state wide coverage will be pushing 90%, with rain totals of at least .25”-.75”. There is a threat of thunderstorms overnight Thursday night. Another question mark revolves around how long the rains linger. Some models again are stringing the rains out to include the first half of Friday. We are not there yet. WE think this front sweeps through strong and has a good clearing line behind it. This front does not look like one that wants to linger, unless it is stalling and dying over the region…and it does not fit that description at the moment. Thunderstorms overnight may push some rain totals, particularly over northern Indiana, to well over an inch combined for the second half of the week.

We look for drying weather Friday and Saturday, although we admit that clouds will be a formidable foe for those days and may limit outright drying. A better way to put it may be “no new precipitation” those days. A secondary front arrives for Sunday, bringing another .25”-.5” over about 75% of the state. This, combined with the rains for the second part of this week, will lead to our first significant slowing in harvest progress over the state, as cumulative rain totals will be over 1-1.5” over at least 60% of the state. We expect a multi-day delay in harvest over about 80% of the state. However, behind the Sunday system, we do string together dry days Monday through at least Thursday of next week, so even a multi-day delay will not last an exceptionally long period of time. The map above shows potential cumulative rain fall over the state through Sunday, which would include both of the aforementioned systems.

In the extended forecast period, we see strong upper level high pressure in control through early the 14^th, keeping sunshine, blue sky and good drying in over the entire state. Later the 14^th into the 15^th, we have a system moving in out of the western corn belt that can trigger a few hundredths to perhaps a quarter inch of rain. A much more impressive storm complex works towards us for the 16^th. This system has a strong low and ample moisture circulating with it. It could bring us half to 1.5” rains over 80% of the state. However, this is far out in the extended period, and we have plenty of time to see this thing modify, or even change course. But it is a system we need to watch.

Overall, temperatures through the rest of the 2 week window, right on through mid-October look to be normal to above normal. We do not see any significant below normal temperatures headed our way. Even dramatic moves behind fronts only return our temps to seasonal levels, and they do not produce any kind of cold snap. Normal first frost dates for the region dance around October 10^th. We do not see any significant frost threat until well after that date at this time.

A weak frontal boundary is working through the Great Lakes today. This front has some clouds associated with it and will drag a little moisture close to the State. However, at this point we think the system only brings a few spits and sprinkles worth a few hundredths to .1” over far northern Indiana, mostly north of US 30. If this does come together, it will be all done by midday. Even the better moisture in NW OH does not look all that exciting this morning. Areas south of US 30 will be dry through the entirety of the day. This front will bring a reinforcing shot of seasonal air, and we should see west to northwest breezes through the day.

Our weekend is dry, and that pattern continues through at least Tuesday. We actually like a mostly dry week next week, but models have introduced a small bit of moisture in for overnight Wednesday night into very early Thursday. Moisture availability will be key, as the front is moving into a very, very dry air mass. Right now, we will look for a few hundredths to no more than a quarter of an inch over about 60% of the state. But, we also will say that we think the bias will be toward the low end of the range, and we will not be surprised at all if we look at this again on Monday and see the front struggling to hold together. Even if we do see some minor rains in there Wednesday night, the dry soils and dry atmosphere will make it so that we likely can be back in the fields by Thursday afternoon. And either way – with or without Wednesday night rains…we are back to sunshine and dry weather for next Thursday and Friday.

The tricky part of the forecast develops next weekend. We have been talking about a front around the 9^th and 10^th for a good long time now. As we have transitioned that period from the extended window to the 10 day window and more models start to take a look at it, we are starting to see some move that system forward. We may have to open a window for this front to arrive as early as next Saturday (7^th), and still as late as the 9^th. Our bias right now is to hold with late the 8^th into the 9^th, as the dry air mass likely chews off the leading edge of moisture and actually slows the front’s progression east. That dry air also may push the moisture northeast, while the front arrives. Either way, for now, we are keeping our best rain chances for Sunday the 8^th through the 9^th, and perhaps lingering into the 10^th. Rain totals are left alone this morning at .25”-1” with coverage at 80%. But, we are monitoring the situation to look for some rain as early as the 7^th, and even with no rain, clouds will likely be increasing on Saturday.

In the extended window, behind that system we move right back to a pattern dominated by strong upper level high pressure and warmer than normal temps. However, we like a nice mid-month system to develop in the western corn belt around the 13^th, and move through the Hoosier state for the 14^th into the 15^th. Rains can be from .25”-.75” with coverage at 90% of the state as the system sits this morning. However, as we always mention: there is plenty of time for the pattern to change, and it this instance…the longer our dry weather holds, the tougher it will be for any front to trigger harvest delaying rains.

We have no changes in our thoughts on temperatures through the coming period. Temps through the next 2 weeks will be normal to above normal. The coolest air is likely in here today, and will warm from here. This pattern fits exceptionally well for harvest into early October, and we think we should be able to continue to make good progress.