Indiana Weather Outlook 9-29-17

A weak frontal boundary is working through the Great Lakes today. This front has some clouds associated with it and will drag a little moisture close to the State. However, at this point we think the system only brings a few spits and sprinkles worth a few hundredths to .1” over far northern Indiana, mostly north of US 30. If this does come together, it will be all done by midday. Even the better moisture in NW OH does not look all that exciting this morning. Areas south of US 30 will be dry through the entirety of the day. This front will bring a reinforcing shot of seasonal air, and we should see west to northwest breezes through the day.

Our weekend is dry, and that pattern continues through at least Tuesday. We actually like a mostly dry week next week, but models have introduced a small bit of moisture in for overnight Wednesday night into very early Thursday. Moisture availability will be key, as the front is moving into a very, very dry air mass. Right now, we will look for a few hundredths to no more than a quarter of an inch over about 60% of the state. But, we also will say that we think the bias will be toward the low end of the range, and we will not be surprised at all if we look at this again on Monday and see the front struggling to hold together. Even if we do see some minor rains in there Wednesday night, the dry soils and dry atmosphere will make it so that we likely can be back in the fields by Thursday afternoon. And either way – with or without Wednesday night rains…we are back to sunshine and dry weather for next Thursday and Friday.

The tricky part of the forecast develops next weekend. We have been talking about a front around the 9th and 10th for a good long time now. As we have transitioned that period from the extended window to the 10 day window and more models start to take a look at it, we are starting to see some move that system forward. We may have to open a window for this front to arrive as early as next Saturday (7th), and still as late as the 9th. Our bias right now is to hold with late the 8th into the 9th, as the dry air mass likely chews off the leading edge of moisture and actually slows the front’s progression east. That dry air also may push the moisture northeast, while the front arrives. Either way, for now, we are keeping our best rain chances for Sunday the 8th through the 9th, and perhaps lingering into the 10th. Rain totals are left alone this morning at .25”-1” with coverage at 80%. But, we are monitoring the situation to look for some rain as early as the 7th, and even with no rain, clouds will likely be increasing on Saturday.

In the extended window, behind that system we move right back to a pattern dominated by strong upper level high pressure and warmer than normal temps. However, we like a nice mid-month system to develop in the western corn belt around the 13th, and move through the Hoosier state for the 14th into the 15th. Rains can be from .25”-.75” with coverage at 90% of the state as the system sits this morning. However, as we always mention: there is plenty of time for the pattern to change, and it this instance…the longer our dry weather holds, the tougher it will be for any front to trigger harvest delaying rains.

We have no changes in our thoughts on temperatures through the coming period. Temps through the next 2 weeks will be normal to above normal. The coolest air is likely in here today, and will warm from here. This pattern fits exceptionally well for harvest into early October, and we think we should be able to continue to make good progress.


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