We are adjusting the forecast drier this morning. The simple synopsis is that we have minor threat of rain over far northern Indiana tomorrow morning and midday, nothing farther south. Then, the front for early next week has fizzled to basically nothing, and the front for the 6th is gone. We may not see our first good look at rain potential until we get closer to the 9th and 10th. Let’s break it down.
High pressure is in over the state today. Temperatures will be cooler than last weekend and the start to this week to be sure, but we still are mostly above normal statewide today. We do have a minor upper level disturbance and secondary front that sweeps through tomorrow. This system brings a few spits and sprinkles worth a few hundredths to .1” over far northern Indiana, mostly north of US 30. The better focus of precipitation will be east in NW OH and then in SE MI as well. That skew means in Indiana, slightly better threats may be seen tomorrow morning in NE parts of the state. But, let’s not get cute: there is not any significant moisture to work with here. And…areas from US 30 southward are day all day tomorrow.
The weekend is dry, and now we see basically no moisture for early next week. The front will still work through, but the air mass it arrives into is so dry, there is not enough moisture to force through and make it a rain maker for us. For semantics, we will leave a few hundredths to a tenth in spots, but honestly, this front is a non-issue for us now. IT will swing winds around, but that is basically it. It will be a dry frontal passage. Without that front, the rest of the week is dry. The front we had been watching for the 6th was minor and fickle to start with, but now looks to meet the same demise of prior fronts, and likely does not even really make it through.
With all that said, we do still see potential of rain around the 9th into the 10th with a strong front moving in from the west and north. The initial good rains may lift northeast with the low into Canada, very similar to what happened with moisture on yesterday’s frontal passage. But, we see a secondary surge of moisture right now for late the 9th into the 10th that may be able to bring .25”-1” still to the area. We will be exceptionally dry by then…so this front has to be a strong one with good moisture flow into it back to the west in order to make something happen here.
Temps through the next 2 weeks will be normal to some above normal. This pattern fits exceptionally well for harvest into early October, and we think we should be able to make good progress there.