No real changes this morning in the short term, but we may have to make some tweaks in the intermediate and longer term part of the forecast down the line, but those tweaks may be drier, if we do end up making them. Here over the next 24 hours, we have antoher hot, dry day over the state. Temps will be above normal once again with fully sunshine
Our next front arrives tomorrow, but there are no changes in our thoughts of it being a mostly dry frontal passage. Moisture just gets wrung out off to the west. We see only a small chance of spits and sprinkles, with potential of a few hundredths to a tenth. Those small chances have the best likelihood over central and southern Indiana. We will see a wind shift and cooler air arriving behind the front, but in general, like we said yesterday, if you are looking for rain, you will be disappointed.
Behind the front, we see temps cooler, but still mostly normal to slightly above. Highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s are likely through Thursday, Friday and into the weekend. We stay dry. The only threat we need to monitor is an upper level disturbance moving over Michigan on Friday, but it looks like the focal point of that system will be a little farther east and south, for the thumb in Michigan and NW OH. So, while we still won’t rule out a little bit of light moisture over far northern tier counties of Indiana. There is only a little threat there and completely no threat south of US 24.
After a dry, pleasant weekend with strong high pressure in control and a lot of sunshine, the forecast can get a little more interesting nearly next week. We have been looking for an early October front for the better part of 2 weeks now in our daily updates. Models have become very wishy washy on this front this morning, taking almost al moisture out last night, and not really backtracking this morning. As of right now, we are leaving our forecast alone, looking for .25”-.6” rain totals over about 80% of the state. We are doing this because we have seen the front and it has been fairly consistent over the past 10 days. We won’t throw out that consistency over a recent change. However, if we continue to see a lack of available moisture, we will have to tweak the forecast for early next week some…as we mentioned above. Stay tuned. It would not be a complete surprise, because our air mass is becoming quite dry, and dry air can be a front killer in the fall.
We are leaving two systems in for the extended period this morning. The first comes in from the south and west around the 6th and will have .1”-.5” rain potential with coverage at 60% of the state. The second system is more impressive, and will be a strong, sweeping front that brings .25”-1” rain potential for the 9th and some of it may linger into the 10th. We still like coverage at 90% of the state for that system,