Colder air comes into the state starting today, and the weather pattern begins to get very interesting. Lake effect snow will be an issue tomorrow over the extreme northern part of the state. This will be something to watch for in eastern LaPorte County, St. Joe, and Elkhart and to a lesser extent in Lagrange and Stueben counties. The better lake effect set up will be in western MI. There can be decent accumulations tomorrow from the Toll road northward, and then on again-off again lake snows down to US 6. South of 6, precipitation will be pretty limited from the lake effect event. Clouds can dominate over the northern part of the state, but the farther south you go, the better chance at sun over the next 3 days…today, tomorrow and Friday. Either way (clouds or sun), the much colder air just keeps coming, with a strong west/northwest flow ripping out of the Upper Midwest right on down into our area.

Clouds build back in on Saturday ahead of our next system, which is beginning to look a little more impressive. Snows develop Saturday night, potentially statewide, with some accumulations. Then Sunday we see good accumulating snow potential over northern parts of the state, while the central and southern parts of Indiana can see a rain snow mix. Then Sunday night into Monday, we see a heavier swath of moisture moving in that can add more snow to the equation. It is way too early to talk specifics yet, but as just a working theory, let’s say we are kicking around potential for some 3-8 inch snows over northern half of Indiana, and a mix of rain and snow south that can produce a slushy few inches. Again…these are by no means our official snow totals…we will publish those Friday, but it looks a little more interesting than it did 48 hours ago for the state. Most of the impact from this event will come down to where the freezing lines set up…and those are still fluid (no pun intended ) at this time…with track of the low and differing air masses the biggest variables. The map above is a snapshot of snow potential at 7 am Sunday morning.

Either way, consider the start of next week kind of a mess. Then, we see wave number 2 of colder air on the way. The clouds do not leave behind the early week system, and we can see some residual flurries as the cold air comes in. The biggest chance of this light snow and flurry activity will be overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday, but we don’t think it will be a big issue for anyone planning to travel to see us at the Indy farm show. By late week, we can be pushing 0 for some minimum temps across a good chunk of the state. In the extended window, look for another system to work in closer to the 21^st. Overall, our outlook for much colder and more active weather for the month is right on track. There will be no “bounce” to our temps.

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