A fairly simple outlook this morning, as very little has changed. However, we still see a very active pattern here over the state, regardless of the word “simple that was used only 1 sentence ago. Let’s run through it.
Mostly dry weather here in the short term. Outside of a little bit of lake effect action over the far northern reaches of the state today, we should see mostly sunny, but cold weather for today, tomorrow and Sunday. Temps will be well below normal, and we likely will not be able to climb above the freezing mark with any large geographical coverage until early next week. A strong, upper level arctic high that plops right on top of the Hoosier state Sunday midday will see to that. So, look for the cold to stay put for right now.
Dry weather actually goes through Monday as well. But, the difference will be strong southwest winds that develop on the backside of that strong arctic high. That will moderate temps some and also start to bring clouds in, ahead of our next system.
Light rains and snows kick off overnight Monday night. We can see some accumulations over the northern third of the state where cold air is still reluctant to leave Monday night. But, through the day Tuesday, and Tuesday night, we will see significant rains moving through. We still like rain totals of at least .25” and are bumping the upper end of our range to 1” with coverage at 100% of the state. The best rains come Tuesday night. The map shows cumulative rain totals through midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Cold air blasts in behind the moisture. Right now, we still think that the moisture is gone before below freezing temps arrive. Some models are bucking this a bit, and calling for rains to end as snow. But, we are not changing our forecast at this time. We will take another look at it Monday morning. Still, colder than normal air returns behind the system at midweek. A secondary little wave moves through Thursday and can bring another .25” of liquid equivalent precipitation. Right now we think it can be mostly rain, but will not rule out some snow. With any snow, accumulations would likely be minor.
Toward the end of next week into the weekend we see yet another strong front working in from west to east. This system will have plentiful moisture coming into a below normal air mass. Right now, given we see liquid equivalent precipitation will total .25”-.6”, we would anticipate some moderate accumulations, especially over the central and northern parts of the state. Now, this is way out at the end of the 10 day period, so there is plenty of time for track and intensity to change, but this could end up being a significant snow maker at mid-month.
In the extended window, we see another strong front moving toward the 19th-20th. However, models continue to wage war on each other, with the typical warm bias of one model being pitted against the cold, active pattern of the other. Right now, it appears that the colder pattern is holding, and we like the colder solution. But its impact on that front in the extended window has yet to be set anywhere close to in stone.