International Weather Update 1-6-17

South America weather:

  • The pattern is mostly unchanged in Brazil but there will be better thunderstorm development this afternoon-tomorrow, in southeast Brazil, including Matto Grosso do Sul through Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, with totals of .5-1.5” but they won’t spread to the north.
  • The rest of the country seems mostly dry through tomorrow with very few pop up showers anywhere.
  • A line of showers develops Sunday night-Monday morning in eastern Matto Grosso but it doesn’t seem to hold together well, so it’s mostly hit and miss action from Sunday night-Tuesday.
  • By Tuesday night-Wednesday, they’ll see some nice circulation in south/southeast Brazil that will slowly move showers north, through MG, Goias, and western Minas Gerais, with these showers possibly a seed for more action later in the week.
  • Tuesday night-Friday, I like 1-3” combined with 90% coverage over all growing areas, including the driest areas of northeast Brazil like Bahia, northeast Minas Gerais, and all the drier areas should pick up very good rains next week.
  • Following that, they’ll see hit and miss action with no good organization through next weekend.
  • There is a circulation off the Atlantic coast of Brazil that could put together a front that sweeps through Brazil late next Sunday the 15th through the 17th and brings another 1-2” of rain.
  • Temps in Brazil trending above normal over most of the country, with the warmest temps in northeast Brazil peaking this weekend before pulling back closer to normal.
  • Strong high pressure sits over Buenos Aires province right now and holds through the weekend, but there will be a few scattered showers moving over the northern half of Argentina through tomorrow and Sunday totaling .5-1” in spots and staying just north of the hardest hit areas from earlier this week.
  • A few more scattered thunderstorms pop up Sunday-Monday and that seems to be the story over the next 4-5 days as there won’t be any significant frontal boundary action, but that may change by next Tuesday.
  • A strong front will work through the northern half of Argentina that could give .5-2” totals in localized areas and it will stay just north of the hardest hit areas again.
  • After that, Argentina wants to trend a little bit drier, with just scattered showers possible in northern Argentina on Wednesday-Thursday but it’s not a big crop growing area.
  • A front is then set to move over BA, southern Cordoba, and La Pampa on Friday-Saturday, bringing .5-1” totals with coverage at 75-80%, before adding more moisture to itself and dropping a little more rain in the central and northern areas.
  • Temps will trend normal to below normal over the next 7-10 days.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea weather:

  • They’re continuing to see temps normal to slightly above in the region but it is starting to trend toward colder temps over the next 7-10 days.
  • Zero and sub-zero temps likely over most of the Ukraine this weekend and early next week.
  • A system coming through will bring snow to Ukraine and central Russia totaling 4-8” over the next 2-3 days in eastern Ukraine and central Russia.
  • Temps stay zero and below through the middle of next week before things begin to moderate next week on Thursday-Friday with a 20-25-degree surge in temps thanks to strong south winds.
  • It’s short lived as temps fall right back down next weekend.
  • Two more fronts come through in the forecast so moisture should be decent.
  • Crops don’t like the up and down temps but if they can keep the snowpack around it should be okay.

 

 

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