Regional Weather Outlook 1-13-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • High pressure is moving over MN and IA this morning and a residual high is parked off the southeast US coastline.
  • In between is a plume of moisture running from northern AR across northern KY, but stays south of the OH River; as the high in the Upper Midwest moves east, that moisture will pivot, running from MO across southern IL and into southern IN, and then it’ll move north by tonight.
  • Scattered rain showers will fall in southern IL, southern IN, and MO, and it should stay rain as the freezing line is closer to central IN and IL.
  • The moisture will begin to push up into the cold air dome by tomorrow morning, which may mean minor icing concers of .1” in central IN and central IL; it looks to fire off in the I-70 area but likely doesn’t get much farther north.
  • There’s a small break on Sunday as moisture concentrates around a low in the plains, so there will still be some scattered light rain/icing in central/southern IL on Sunday and then moving back through MO, but it should switch over to rain fairly quickly.
  • That brings heavy rains to the Corn Belt Monday-Tuesday, from .25-1” across the Belt and hit 90% of the Corn Belt this weekend, with snow falling in the Upper Midwest.
  • There is some concern aobut localized flooding in areas of the Corn Belt as a lot of streams in the eastern Belt are running at capacity and there is heavy field ponding, so another 1” isn’t going to help.
  • Dry weather will be the rule Wednesday-Friday, but strong south winds by next weekend mean our next system is set to move in, starting in the MO valley by Saturday morning, and then it starts east, hitting 75-80% of the Corn Belt next weekend, Jan 21-22 with .5-1.5” totals.
  • It should be mostly rain except for snow again in the Upper Midwest, but the warm air surge next week could switch it to rainfall very easily.

 

Deep South weather:

  • Rain is in line next week for the Deep South, but this weekend, high pressure will dominate; there will be some rain moving from AR through KY, but that’s it.
  • Rain kicks off by midday Monday, a line of thunderstorms kicks off in LA with showers and thunderstorms up into AR, marching east all the way through early Thursday, hitting 95% of the region with .5-2” of rain.
  • The heavier end of the range is in the west where thunderstorms are more widespread, with less chance of thunderstorm development in the east.
  • A dry and windy Friday will follow that up, possibly spurring showers on Friday night-Saturday, and then a strong front will move through the south from Saturday midday-Monday with 1-2.5” of moisture, with the heaviest action in LA, MS, AL, and GA.
  • Heavy rains will also fall in NC and SC on Monday of next week too.
  • Very stormy and soggy in the Deep South over most of the upcoming 10 days.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • The story is an ice storm that’ll move through this weekend, especially in KS and OK, with the effects of the storm felt up into NE and SD.
  • The hardest hit areas of KS will include Salina, from 6 p.m. Saturday through noon Sunday, about .9” of moisture will fall in that window where temps are at or below freezing at the surface while it’s very warm aloft; it doesn’t necessarily mean a full one inch of ice, but it does mean there is potential for some nastiness.
  • Hutchinson could be in the .7” of moisture range while temps are at 32 degrees or lower; farther south near Medicine Lodge/Pratt area, .3” of an inch, Witchita .4”, and Emporia looks at .25” of moisture.
  • Topeka and Concordia likely see 1/3” of moisture; another potentially challenging area is in southwest KS because over an inch of moisture will fall, with temps yo-yo’ing back and forth above and below the freezing mark.
  • The ice will be a problem through Sunday before rains continue on Monday-early Tuesday that could add another 1-1.5” liquid equivalent of moisture on top of that.
  • Ice comes first and then rain falls on top of it to help melt the ice as there is a potential for some major issues.
  • I’m not ready to call for gloom and doom, but ice storms in this part of the country tend to be epic, and this one looks to have plenty of moisture to work with, so it all comes down to temps and who stays above and below freezing.
  • Farther north, nothing is going on over the weekend, with moisture trying to move into NE on Monday and possibly extreme southeast SD.
  • The middle of next week looks dry in the plains before a residual system sets up over the northern plains, bringing light rain and snow before the low gets cut off and parks over ND from next Sunday-Monday; it could bring some heavy snow and strong winds that’ll mean blizzard conditions.
  • Temps in the plains will be normal to above, including well above normal heading into early next week.
  • Highs in ND are typically 14 degrees, but they could be pushing 40 next week, but keep in mind that’ll likely change at the turn of the month.

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