South America weather:

• Showers and thunderstorms are popping up in Matto Grosso today, with scattered hit and miss showers through the rest of the week and into the weekend elsewhere, giving .5-1.5” of rains over 75% of growing areas.
• Hit and miss shower action continues early next week, Monday-Wednesday.
• The showers get better organized from Wednesday afternoon-Friday, with moisture moving across Parana and Sao Paulo, over northern Matto Grosso do Sul, into Matto Grosso and Goias.
• Combined rain totals look like 1-2” and then a big batch of heavier rains fall in western Matto Grosso on Thursday-Friday, adding an addition 1” of rain.
• Some of the heaviest precipitation develops outside of the main growing areas west of Matto Grosso on Friday-Saturday of next week.
• The rest of Brazil stays a little drier next weekend but it’s nothing to be concerned about at this point.
• Moisture moves back in during the 11-16-day forecast with .5-2” combined in that forecast.
• Temps in Brazil are trending higher, normal to slightly above over the next 7-10 days, with the good moisture and slightly above normal temps through the end of the month.
• Drier weather is emerging in Argentina over the next few days as high pressure over Buenos Aires transfers east.
• A minor front kicks up over BA on Friday night and heads north, turning into a bigger deal in the northern third of the country Saturday night-Sunday with .5-1” totals, but nothing more than scattered showers in BA, southern Cordoba, and into La Pampa.
• Later next weekend-early next week, the northern feature turns into a bigger mess, with coverage expanding to the northern half of the country Sunday night-Monday, with totals over that period from .5-2” in the northern half of the region.
• That likely means we’ll see net drying in central and southern Argentina through the first part of next week.
• Strong high pressure parks over the country and keeps things dry Tuesday-Thursday.
• Showers kick up in SW BA on Thursday afternoon, but they go away quickly and things stay dry through Friday.
• Despite rains in the northern half of the country, the overall 10-day pattern is drier, and that’ll take the temps to normal to above, but normal to slightly below over this weekend.

Ukraine/Black Sea region:

• Warmer air is moving in over the next few days and cold temps over the region should ease quickly by this weekend.
• They’ll see well above normal temps, right at freezing and above, and any systems that come in will be all rain.
• Temps fall back into the single digits by Saturday afternoon, so snow is possible in Ukraine and central/southern Russia into early next week.
• Temps in the single digits and below zero from Sunday-Tuesday, so if the snow does melt, it’ll be talked about a lot in the markets.
• I don’t think it will lead to wide ranging winterkill, but the roller coaster temps are something to keep an eye on.
• No over the top moisture over the next ten days

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